Mark Cramer
C & X Report

JUVENILE FILLIES
Quick note on Connie and Michael. She opened at 2/5 in her maiden race. Big Win horse, on synth, for trainer with flat bet profits.
Must consider.
Mark


Well, Junia Tapzia acted up before the start, left slowly and looked uncomfortable going wide both turns. I was wrong. I was right however, in discarding the heavy favorite, Aidan O’Brien’s Lillie Langtry, as having the wrong style for American racing.

Midday came in first in the F&M, helping me recover.

For Saturday’s card, here is my summary.

JUVENILE TURF

For me it’s POUNCED versus the rest, with Interactif and Viscount Nelson getting overbet compared to their real chances. I suspect that Buzzward, in the same photo at Longchamp with Pounced, has gone to the well once to much. However, his stable is hot.

TURF SPRINT

Deeply contentious race! The favorite, California Flag, should do better this year since there less burning speed to challenge. I am projecting an advantage for locals on this very unique course. My order of preference, considering the relative odds of the many contenders:

DESERT CODE: multiple pattern match, but must contend with outside post

DELTA STORM: late developer only a neck behind California Flag (big odds differential) and then an overachieving show in his third and best try at Grade 1. I’m banking on the fact that Mike Mitchell is at home here and a statistically profitable trainer

GOTTA HAVE HER: is 15-1 with the other filly at 4-1 so there’s an odds differential and this one is 4 for 4 on this home course, including victories in key races, albeit f&m.

THE SPRINT

In order of preference:

FATAL BULLET

GAYEGO

CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN

Logic here is the chance to play against a vulnerable favorite, as I tried to do against Lillie Langtry.

The last of these three is the odds-differential horse, having lost by only a half length to the much lower odds Fatal Bullet. CCC has also outdone a track record at Saratoga, and was “full of run” in last over the synth.

THE JUVENILE

I am passing this one.

THE MILE

GOLDLIKOVA versus the rest! Only the outside post can put a dent in her effort, but Peslier has already suffered a nightmare trip from the outside at Longchamp and will make amends here.

ZACINTO is the up-and-coming horse, who reversed the order with Delegator in his last, while finishing close to Rip Van Winkle.

THE DIRT MILE

Can’t oppose MASTERCRAFTSMAN, who would have been entered in the Classic if Rip Van Winkle had not been able to run.

THE TURF

This race is much more difficult than it seems. To be frank with you, I am having trouble envisioning how the Euro horses will cope with the fact that Presious Passion will be out there in fast fractions. Will the E-type Euros Dar Re Mi and Spanish Moon keep too close to PP, thereby setting it up for Conduit? Or will DRM and Moon set pretty and have the first shot at PP?

Please note that Presious Passion has won his last four races on firm turf, including a less-than-top-level Grade 1 at SA.

Here is my order of preference, though really, they are almost impossible to separate.

SPANISH MOON: has twice defeated Youmzain (famous for three straight place finishes in the Arc de Triomphe) and contrary to Conduit and Dar Re Mi, opted out of the Arc with the BC Turf in sight. I also have him with a slight edge because of Fallon’s experience in the BC Turf.

PRESIOUS PASSION: could surprise the Euros and walk away with this race, over the desired firm ground and hugging the rail on the tight turns. It’s a stretch, but everyone in the press box says this race goes to the Euro horses, so why not take an American horse here.

CONDUIT: the Arc came after a rest, so he’s still relatively fresh for a race he won last year.

DAR RE MI: has had the most intense campaign, but has fired every time and has Dettori aboard. Really, any of these four could win it.

THE CLASSIC

Once again, there’s a vulnerable favorite to try to beat, in Zenyatta. She has simply not faced anywhere near this level of competition, even if she has never lost.

RIP VAN WINKLE would be Europe’s number one horse had it not been for Sea The Stars. This is clearly the most likely winner even though the second favorite in the betting.

EINSTEIN may be the best of a relatively poor lot, handles multiple surfaces, including this track/distance. Exclude his to Arlington fiascos and he looks much more reliable.

TWICE OVER has recently defeated Sariska, a filly who is as good as the boys, and last year defeated Raven’s Pass, who eventually won the BC Classic. Trainer Henry Cecil just broke his BC maiden with MIDDAY in the F&M Turf (recall that Midday was my tri key in this race and the only horse I mentioned). Also note the beautiful rail-hugging ride by Queally. This bodes well for Twice Over.