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Mark Cramer's C & X Report for the HandicappingEdge.Com.

Friday, May 18, 2007

PREAKNESS POST
Before we get to the Preakness, let's take a brief look at Shuvee at
Belmont. The three horse, trained by Frankel, is the potential
favorite who could be vulnerable to a wet track (rain today and some
rain forecast Saturday). The short field looks wide open. Good angles
on several horses. The 2-horse, for example, Rahy's Appeal, is 1-for-1
at Bel and 2-for-2 at the distance, and there are a couple of others
who are more win types than she is, especially the filly on the
outside.
For this reason, I focus on SWAP FLIPAROO as a backwheel candidate.
She has four seconds out of 4 on the wet, and more in general, has 5
seconds in 9 races at Belmont. Classwise she's the equal of these, and
she's has won at the mile. I visualize that she won't quite get up on
time, based on her usual pace profile.
THE PREAKNESS
I liked Street Sense in the Derby in part because I considered him a
horse for course. The extra info that helped me choose him as the most
likely winner was the fact that his dam was 5 3-2-0 at CD. Otherwise,
his dam was mediocre. He figures to be even money. He can win for
sure, but at those odds, he's not an overlay.
I considered Circular Quay for quite some time, since I felt that in
his case, the Derby was a prep for the Preakness. Pletcher excels with
a slight profit for second back after a layoff. In the end, I just
don't think Circular Quay is quite at the same class level. I can
visualize a possible third in the tri for CQ.
It's hard not to like HARD SPUN. If Street Sense did not have such a
prefect trip, Hard Spun could have won the Derby. Three past winners
of the Lane's End have come back to lose the Derby and win the
Preakness. HS can track the speed. He thoroughly put away three other
speed horses in the Derby.
Prior to the Derby, I noted that I felt Curlin's Derby was a prep for
the Preakness. Curlin had a few obstacles in the early going, and
closed well while wide. For me that race represents the seasoning he
needed, and now he's not up against a horse for course. So I give
CURLIN a very slight edge over Hard Spun, and Curlin's odds will be
more generous.
My longshot exotic inclusion is MINT SLEWLEP. I wrestled with Xchanger
and finally decided that he does not have any margin of improvement
classwise, even if he does improve with added distance and has won
over the track. MINT SLEWLEP is the other locally trained horse with a
nice breeze over the track.
At first sight, his speed ratings look depressingly low. But consider
that he broke his maiden late in his second year. His lay-1 race was
the Gr 1 Gothem, hardly a good spot for a comeback race. He looked
pretty good, gaining ground along the rail at 40-1. Then he won his
nw2 easily, and moved up in class again in the Withers. I watched the
Withers 6 times. Each time, MINT SLEWLEP looked more impressive, even
if he eventually lost to another Preakness longshot candidate in this
field. But MS was racing in extrelely tight quarters and just when he
seemed to be rolling, he was shuffled back before making a prolonged
move as they hit the stretch.
I'm not saying that this horse is the new superstar, but in a race
where opportunism is an important factor, he may be able to close for
second or third place. He looks a lot like Circular Quay and frankly
I'm choosing Mint Slewlep over CQ only because of a much higher odds
differential and the fact that he's a locally trained horse.
My order of preference is:
Curlin, Hard Spun, Mint Slewlep, Street Sense and Circular Quay.
mc
Posted by: Mark / 7:05 AM

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