Mark Cramer
C & X Report

FINAL ARCE REPORT:
OUT ON THE LIMB
From the Group II card on Saturday I learned several things that will partially modify the first Arc report.
(1) Yes, the filly PRIDE should have won the Prix Vermeille. But two horses from the same field came back in weak Grade II races Saturday to finish up the field. Both looked mediocre. This demotes the qaulity of the Vermeille field, so I've decided to demote its value, and therefore not use Pride. If he wins at a huge price, I will not say "shoulda, coulda". The Vermeille was a weak field.
(2) I was hesitant about BLUE CANARI, coming from the Prix Niel, which was stated to be a prep race by the Pascal Bary stable. Hesitant because Lemaire rarely wins group races, and is not a dominant rider. Today, Lemaire won Group II race, and came back in the next race to do an inspired ride and win at 24-1. This young man is enjoying a rare moment of supreme confidence. Blue Canari gets an extra push, though he's only one of my contenders.
(3) I am also deciding not to use two other horses that could have a legitimate shot, because of their outside posts: TAP DANCE CITY, the Japanese horse from post 18 and VALIXIR, the live Fabre horse, because the stable admits he lacks some maturity, and yet he's got to overcome post 20.
THE KEY
I have decided to key the filly OUIJA BOARD. None of the 35 French public handicappers have her on top. Here are my lawyerly reasons:
(1) She won BOTH Epsom and Irish Oaks.
(2) She won the Epsom Oaks by 7 lengths. How often is a Grade I turf race won by 7 lengths? The chart comment is: "pulled away irresistably".
(3) Her time for the Irish Oaks was 2'28" and 20/100. The Irish Derby for boys was run in 2'28" and 70/100. The two Irish Derby finishers are the top two favorites in the British books.
Negative. Those last three wins were in fields of 7, 7, and 9. Today this lightly-raced filly has to confront 19 other horses.
Given the potential odds, she's worth keying.
By the way, I had dinner with Tomlinson, and there I discovered, by pure chance, that he came up with the same filly.
A MUST INCLUDE
Given that none of the Classic races had dominant fields, anything can happen. GREY SWALLOW, from the Irish Derby, admittedly not a great field, is facing other horses from not great fields. She has been supplemented, and the conservative Dermot Weld does not take such a risk unless he's got top merchandise. He could have brought his Vinnie Roe (4th in last year's Arc at huge odds and winner of the Irish St. Leger. Yet he chose to bring GREY SWALLOW in stead.
VALUE INCLUSION
BLUE CANARI has the Lemaire jockey angle. His prep race was just that. The race to judge him by is the French Derby ("The Jockey Club"), in which he defeated Prospect Park and Valixir. Since those two will be much lower odds, why not take the big price. You get a great trainer in Pascal Bary.
IN THE MONEY
PROSPECT PARK has never raced worse than second.
NORTH LIGHT. Can't fault this Stoute horse.
SECOND LONGSHOT KEY
IN SEARCH OF AN OLDER HORSE: KINKY HANDICAPPING
All of the above are from the 3-year-old crop, and yet most experts agree that the big 3yo races on both sides of the Channel have not been dominant. Looking for one older horse to use, I gravitate toward MAMOOL.
(1) Dettori had a horrendous day Saturday. After having lost on two favorites, his worst horse of the day was bet down irrationally by the Brits who were playing catchup. Dettori is a bounce-back rider, and the Arc is his playground.
(2) His stable has won two of the last three Arcs.
(3) When the Godolphin/Dettori Marienbard won this race in 2002 at a big price, there was a remarkably similar pattern. The horse had lost his marathon ability but had awakened at the "shorter" 1 1/2, same as MAMOOL. He was a 5-year-old, as is MAMOOL. He'd failed in the Melbourne Cup, as has MAMOOL.
(4) More pattern match ... MAMOOL has won his last three 1 1/2 races, while losing his last four at other distances, most of them longer.
Conclusion. I have mentioned 6 horses. There are at least five others that would not surprise if they were in the money. If Ouija Board or Mamool finish in the money, I should make a profit. If Blue Canari gets in, I should at least break even. Ouija Board and Mamool are my two outlandish keys. None of the public handicappers pick either one.
I could be charging against the Longchamp windmill. I could get bruised.
Going mad,
Mark

Saturday, 11am French time
Today I have my narrative handicap of the Arc plus trainer comments on their chances. The weather is sunny, it has not rained, and the strip should be good to firm, unless we get a real downpour tomorrow. Several trainers have stated that they prefer a soft course. Others want firm, so this is one factor. At Midnight Saturday I will try to do the final post. If you don't find it there, then check this site early Sunday morn. Pardon my typos but right after this, I've got to go out to Longchamp.
3yos have won 51 of the 82 Arcs, and hold an edge by impact value. Of those 51 3yos, 9 were fillies.
EXECUTE. Long layoff and post 17. Toss.
POLICY MAKER. Prep was 9 seconds slower than younger male and female preps same day. Must respect the Lellouche stable, and Lellouche has nothing but good words for his horse. Can't quite toss the 6-for-10 horse who was 10th in last year's Arc, but he could not beat Execute four races back at Longchamp.
MAMOOL. The Dettori - Bin Suroor combination has won 2 of last 3 Arcs, but this horse has always faced lesser competition. Comes from Gr III win at lowly Kempton in 4-horse field. Bin Suroor tells us his form is top and he likes the firm going. Toss.
WARRSAN. Older horse, trainer warns us that this is a "late bloomer" and has found his best at 6yo. Usually a notch below, but did defeat Doyen in the Epsom Coronation Cup when Doyen was not at peak. Some chance as an opportunist.
IMPERIAL DANCER. Stable knows that the only chance is a pace duel and subsequent cave-in of the best horses. Toss.
TAP DANCE CITY. The X factor from Japan. Won Japan Cup by 9 lengths. Comes in off Lay-1 because they have no summer racing in Japan. Some chance but not a contender. A Japanese horse finished second in the Arc a few years back, but that horse had been racing in France.
VALLEE ENCHANTEE. The stable deserves respect but this filly is definitely a notch below, and comes in off layoff. Toss.
PRIDE. In Prix Vermeille for females, Pride finished third by only a length, after being stopped twice in her tracks. The Prix Vermeille was run only one-tenth of a second slower than the Prix Niel for the boys, same day, a field which includes several contenders for today's race. This places PRIDE with some chance to be in the money at huge odds. The trainer won last year's Arc with the favorite. Listed at 65-1, this will be my longshot inclusion, unless I hear contrary info today at Longchamp.
NORTH LIGHT. Winner of the Epsom Derby, and then second in Irish Derby to Grey Swammpow, who is also in the Arc, North Light is the favorite among British bookies. Trainer Michael Stoute is 0-for-10 in Arcs, and this is the only big race he has not won. Serious contender.
BLUE CANARI. Won the French Derby in June, and then finished third in the Niel prep, following a layoff. Trainer Bary states that the Niel was a prep race. Bary notes that BLUE CANARI's French Derby win was partly due to a perfect trip. Bary has won the last two BC Miles but he has not won an Arc. My question: why would he pay a $72,000 supplement, and then choose an 8 1/2 percent rider. Regular rider Thuillez has chose POLICY MAKER over this one so that makes us respect POLICY MAKER. Still, BLUE CANARI deserves to be a contender at a price.
CHERRY MIX. The stable loves this horse, even though he's not won a Gr I. They say he's on the improve. Soumillon, winner of last year's Arc, chooses CHERRY MIX over the highly recarded filly LATICE, because Soumillon doubts LATICE's capability of getting the distance. This horse may prefer a soft turf, though. Can keep in on the bottom of contenders.
VALIXIR, the second Fabre horse, did nothing less than win the Prix Niel prep race. Definitely a contender. Problem is, he did everything he could to hang against another hanger. Stable explains that he relaxed when he thought he had won, and that he lacks maturity. Fabre has won many Arcs. Mid-ranked contender.
ACROPOLIS. The O'Brien horse likes this lightly raced 2-for-5 horse. Highest win was in listed. Toss.
BAGO. Will the real BAGO stand up tomorrow. He's beaten Valixir in the past, and was 10 ahead of ACROPOLIS, but declined in last two, and was third in the Niel as a 7/4 favorite. Stable says he will improve if the track continues to be slicker than it was for the Niel. Contender, but not among top choices.
GREY SWALLOR, defeated NORTH LIGHT in Irish Derby and is supplemented for $72,000. One of primary contenders.
SHIROCCO, has defeated lesser in Germany, only five career races, and prefers softer. Toss.
PROSPECT PARK. Can't see this hard knocker out of the money. However, he couldn't pass a horse that was hanging in the Niel, and has two other glorious second place finishes. Place looks like a better probability than win, but he is definitely a contender.
SILVERSKAYA, last race before breeding barn, top 3yo filly has not defeated the best. Needs huge pace duel for any chance. Toss.
LATICE. In pure talent, deserves to be a contender. When she caved in when trying the Arc distance, Soumillon got off, and stable withdrew. Then stable had second thoughts. Would have won Prix de l'Opera for fillies and mares. They insist their filly is sharp and that one failure at the distance does not mean she cannot get it. Given the stable's initial hesitations and Soumillon's rejection, I'd say that this horse is only worth including if the odds are very high. Not a tossout.
OUIJA BOARD, filly has not raced since July. Works are quite good. Won both Irish and English Oaks. Cannot dismiss. The controversial Fallon got off her to ride North Light. Murtagh is no slouch, and he won the Arc before. Fallon is a great rider but not the wisest thinker. OUIJA BOARD is a valid longshot if the course remains firm.
At this moment I cannot separate the top contenders. Pride and Ouija Board remain valid longshot inclusions if you're going deep.
This is the type of race where you look at all your contenders, look up at the board, and bet on the best payoffs. If a fave like North Light wins, money can still be made in the exotics. Compare the odds between North Light and Grey Swallow. They are pretty much equals.
It all depends on the toteboard.