Mark Cramer
C & X Report

BC Post 4
My wife drew the line about carrying a china cabinet up five floors. I wondered whether I’d end up like Laurel and Hardy with the piano, but I’m here and glad to be back to the BC.
This final post only adds stray points. Use the previous posts to get the total picture.
JUVENILE FILLY. No opinion.
JUVENILE. Ivan Denisovich has BC winner dam; stable is good with 2yos. No one from DRF has picked. Worth using, among the various contenders.
F&M. A reader sent an e-mail emphasizing pattern match on Favorable Terms. FT has managed to avoid soft tracks, his big if. Angora was an “informed minority” pick (only one DRF handicapper puts her on top). Mona Lisa was my initial infatuation.
This race is deep, and each and every filly and mare has knocks against. Do we pass? Not if you think that Ouija Board is another Arazi.
SPRINT. The more I looked, the tougher it became to play “beat the favorite”. Fog has already shipped 3 times to NY. He’s broken 3 different track records, when variant was never below 6. My smartass play: key IMPERIALISM in the third slot of the tri. Wildcat Heir is 2nd most likely winner. At LIFESTYLE’s odds, he can be used, if you liked my arguments.
MILE. I stand by Valixir as key. I’ll add Whipper into the mix. He adores soft turf and always runs close to Valixir. Whipper is an “informed minority” pick by Hovdey.
DISTAFF. I’m staying out. Stellar Jane is the smartass pick.
TURF. Shirocco and Bago. Those are the keys. Also two “informed minority” horses here by two handicappers who previously picked BC longshot winners as the informed minority. Kachulis is the only guy to pick ACE. Beyer is the only one to pick GUN SALUTE. The latter is one pretty good horse to get only one pick.
CLASSIC. RHT scratched. That puts me on STARCRAFT. Cumani is not dumb to supplement the world’s best grass miler in the dirt Classic. No surprise if Borrego wins. Choctaw Nation became “informed minority” horse after Anderson’s top pick was scratched. C&X reader, Jon, who picked the Derby winner, has good things to say about one overlooked horse. A BIT O’GOLD’s trainer is daughter of the Canadian trainer who won a BC race with Dance Smartly. In a year when the American classic crop has dwindled, it’s not farfetched to think that a Canadian can win it. GOLD horse has not only never won a Grade I but has never been in one. History of the BC Classic has produced winners who looked bad. That’s why the player would have a flat-bet profit if he played every horse in every Classic since inception.
This should be my final post. But check back tomorrow, in case I get that once-in-a-lifetime phone call with a 50-1 lock.
Parting words: the BC sees Grade I winners go off at huge odds. If you like a horse that has not been mentioned here, go for it. Judge my posts not by my opinions but by the information I have used to back those opinions. Be confident, don’t be afraid to go for a score, but at the same time, pass a race, even a BC race, if you analyze that you have no edge. Don’t be part of the statistic of players who piss away money on races they do not like, and then don’t have enough to invest when the race comes up that they do like.
mark