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Mark Cramer's C & X Report for the HandicappingEdge.Com.

Monday, October 25, 2004

Clarification:
One good reader wrote to me wondering who is this Fierro guy and how come Cramer is not giving his own odds lines for the BC.
To avoid any misunderstanding, I won't be giving my lines until:
1. we have scratches
2. we have post positions
3. I get any late info that might be significant
I threw in the Fierro lines as a perk. A worthy extra. Fierro is the country's foremost line maker, the only one I know of whose yearly records are released to his constituency, and who uses a method I adhere to, betting the overlays and passing the underlays, based on his PERSONAL odds line. People have to pay for Fierro's line. I have been with him and seen that he puts his money exactly where his mouth is. So I thought the extra of Fierro's line would be appreciated.
I will do my best to have a line for every race, unless a race is impossible to objectify. I'll label the races A, B, or C, meaning how strongly I feel about my own insights.
A DIFFERENT HORSE
Nebraska Tornado is strange in the Distaff. As a 3yo, she won a huge double header: the French Oaks and a Grade I against the boys. But something went wrong after that ... otherwise she'd have raced in the Arc de Triomphe or traveled to the BC last year. She has decent dirt breeding. If this were last year's Nebraska Tornado, I would bet her blindly. In spite of her poor season, there is one very interesting sign. In the 16-horse Queen Anne Stakes at prestigious Ascot, she finished a close fourth after leading until 1 furlong out. She finished ahead of Six Perfections. In her next start, in which she should have trounced the field, she was a bad actress.
Having wagered on Arcangues for a similar reason based on trainer-plus-different horse, this looks like another kind of athlete that's hurting and may improve on the dirt.
More tomorrow.
Final lines on Friday at the latest.
mc

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