Mark Cramer
C & X Report

BC MESSAGE 2, Weds.
F&M. Still love Satwa. Naturally, for me, in addition to a win bet, there must be exacta-as-place bet under Ouija Board and Wait a While, and possible trifecta as show bet.
SPRINT. Still no great insight. With both Dubai Escapade and Commentator now scratched, HENNY HUGHES looks even better, but BORDONARO now has less speed to contend with. I'm giving a long look at "the different horse", LEWIS MICHAEL, who's in off the alsos, for no other reason than great respect for the trainer. Horse's first shorten-up showed some promise, but naturally, he still has no sprint credentials.
TURF. I have settled on a most-likely winner, and it is SCORPION. Here's why. Hurricane Run is not the same horse this year as he was last. He seems to have lost the killer instinct. Maybe he's bored. SCORPION broke the track record for the 1 1/2 at Longchamp. Notice that this year's Arc finished in 2:26.1. SCORPION'S record is 2:24.1. That's both meaningful and meaningless. Meaningless because I feel the track was especially fast that day. Meaningful because that day Longchamp was running like an American turf course. The performance cycle of SCORPION reminds me a little of Da Hoss. Previous super peak performance, l-o-n-g layoff, and then one non-descript prep. O'Brien is not Dickenson, but O'Brien knows how to train a horse. His High Chaparral has won the Turf twice, so O'Brien has been there and done that.
I also suspect that SCORPION'S two horrendous races may have been bleeds. O'Brien never fails to give lasix to his invaders. When SCORPION finished second to Hurricane Run in the 2005 Irish Derby, Hurricane Run was at the peak of his game while SCORPION was inexperienced and green.
I like SCORPION in this race as much as I like SATWA QUEEN in the other, but for very different reasons. SATWA QUEEN has more she has to beat. SCORPION need only find his peak a little faster than he has before.
DISTAFF
Even though I find three legit contenders, in BALLETTO, FLEET INDIAN, and PINE ISLAND, I also see several others who are fast enough on their peak day to win a race like this. These are types who could take turns with each other all year. That means that form cycle plays a key role. BALLETTO looks like the up-and-coming runner with the dominant trainer, but PINE ISLAND's trainer won this race last year, and FLEET INDIAN's trainer, and his horse, don't make many mistakes. I may simply stay out of this race.
Stay tuned for post #3, probably tomorrow, Thursday.

BC MESSAGE 2, Weds.
F&M. Still love Satwa. Naturally, for me, in addition to a win bet, there must be exacta-as-place bet under Ouija Board and Wait a While, and possible trifecta as show bet.
SPRINT. Still no great insight. With both Dubai Escapade and Commentator now scratched, HENNY HUGHES looks even better, but BORDONARO now has less speed to contend with. I'm giving a long look at "the different horse", LEWIS MICHAEL, who's in off the alsos, for no other reason than great respect for the trainer. Horse's first shorten-up showed some promise, but naturally, he still has no sprint credentials.
TURF. I have settled on a most-likely winner, and it is SCORPION. Here's why. Hurricane Run is not the same horse this year as he was last. He seems to have lost the killer instinct. Maybe he's bored. SCORPION broke the track record for the 1 1/2 at Longchamp. Notice that this year's Arc finished in 2:26.1. SCORPION'S record is 2:24.1. That's both meaningful and meaningless. Meaningless because I feel the track was especially fast that day. Meaningful because that day Longchamp was running like an American turf course. The performance cycle of SCORPION reminds me a little of Da Hoss. Previous super peak performance, l-o-n-g layoff, and then one non-descript prep. O'Brien is not Dickenson, but O'Brien knows how to train a horse. His High Chaparral has won the Turf twice, so O'Brien has been there and done that.
I also suspect that SCORPION'S two horrendous races may have been bleeds. O'Brien never fails to give lasix to his invaders. When SCORPION finished second to Hurricane Run in the 2005 Irish Derby, Hurricane Run was at the peak of his game while SCORPION was inexperienced and green.
I like SCORPION in this race as much as I like SATWA QUEEN in the other, but for very different reasons. SATWA QUEEN has more she has to beat. SCORPION need only find his peak a little faster than he has before.