Mark Cramer
C & X Report

LAST CHANCE COMMENTS
Claiming Crown
I'll go by the race number. This is based on further conversations plus Thoroughgraph, which largely reconfirms my own eyeballing it.
3
R. LITTLE REDHEAD outruns the other two early horses, considering that his fractions earned on slower track. Mean Kisser and Sacsahuaman are one point behind him and are most likely if pace duel develops of REDHEAD can't take the Cby heat. An insurance win bet on Mean Kisser may not be a bad idea if the odds are right.
4
TGraphs figs show Max's Ace 3 whole points slower than the worst of Landler and Cicero Games, who are, in turn slower than the peak efforts of Onlynurimagination, though Only's peaks have been earned on off tracks. Landler needs to recover his past peak, and those last two turf efforts should be viewed as tighteners with troubled trips. Close fit, with a couple of others near enough to profit if the above have a bad day. I expect that LANDLER will be the value of the three, but all three need to be used. And that does not sew up the race.
5
BAR BAILEY has the best figs by far, but in back races, and I'm betting on the Arapahoe conditioning effect to get him back to form. If that has not worked, then I WILL SURVIVE has the next best figs, and UNFORGETTABLE GAL is a tad less but is more consistent and dependable, and handles the distance. The pop-in horse according to my original subjective judgement is PEEKABOO CAT, reconfirmed with two (and only two) efforts that would equal UNFORGETTABLE GAL. The inclusion of this last one would be only because it's the connections of Wayne Catalano, who is not coming here today, so horse is listed under another trainer, one who was not very expressive when we talked to him.
BAR BAILEY is my smartass top contender.
6
RUNAWAY MARTHA's peak is a tad slower than OUT OF PRIDE's peak, with OK CORRAL one point less but more consistent. All others are much slower. I like the fact that she has 11 races at today's dist, with 6 wins and no seconds or places. It's ALL OR NOTHING. OK CORRAL's figures are not dominant and the heat is a neg, but you gotta like the trainer. OUT OF PRIDE will love this course more than Woodbine.
7
THE STUDENT came up with consistently the top numbers. Rodeo's Castle is at the same level but I've decided to not use Rodeo's Castle because of the synchronicity between 1) never did 6 1/2 and 2) is in a speed duel. PROCREATE could pop up but is could be damaged by the speed duel. His peaks are below THE STUDENT's consistent levels. Awesome Alarm came up with disappointing figs but could still pounce on the tiring speed, as can WHISKEY SEZ, who could sneak in the combination. That is, if you really want to toss out the speed horses that run very fast but have never done the distance, including Rodeo's Castle, Crafty Player and one other who has no other way to go. Essentially I'm banking on a particular race shape. If that shape does not materialize, it's over for me. If I'm right, THE STUDENT is clearly the best.
8
This race is deep and wide. On figures, no horse is really better than the next, except that:
DEVINE WIND has two past races that if he were to reach that level, would be several lengths better than these. The guys in his stall tell me that he's ready to peak!
MR. MABEE is equal to most of DEVINE WIND's races but less than the two peaks of DW. On the other hand, MABEE has the most room for improvement and a smart trainer.
I'm continuing to back SCOTTAGO as a key horse because he and his rider know the local course. On figs, SCOTTAGO is equal to the top two but not to the big peaks of DW nor the projection of improvement of MM.
Beware: six other horses have best figs that do not eliminate them from the win or from the exacta, so we do not have this race sewn up.
9
LORD OF THE GAME has one fig that betters DESERT BOOM, but DESERT BOOM has reached a new plateau and is at the very top of his game. I'm keying DB on the notion that his odds will be higher, and because of his trainer. HABANEROS is also racing at a new peak, but his margin of loss to Lord does not speak to the fact that Lord told him, "You're not gettin' past me'.
Morine's Victory equals the level of Habaneros if you're going deep, but I think the winner is between the top two.
One last note, my friends. There are seven handicappers in the program grid. Here are the "informed minority" picks, those horses that are only picked by a single handicapper.
Race 3: McGee with Sacsahuaman, Davidowitz with Mean Kisser.
Race 4: Cramer with Landler, Fierro with Blues Away and McGee with Cicero Grimes.
Race 5: Cramer with Bar Bailey, Fierro with Ells Editor, Eric Wing with I Will Survive.
Race 6: no single picks
Race 7: Kevin Gorg with the program fave Rodeo's Castle and track annoucer Paul Allen with Procreate.
Race 8: Amazingly, only Marty McGee picks Devine Wind, Davidowitz picks Our Last Novel, and Gorg picks Sigfreto.
Race 9: No one picks the program fave, Lord of the Game, and everyone picks Desert Boom. Does that scare you?