Mark Cramer
C & X Report

CLAIMING CROWN, second report
THE RAPID TRANSIT, Race 7
Looking just as complex as many a BC Sprint, this race will be fast.
There are five most likely winners. I will give a few arguments for
the highest odds of these five: FEARLESS ANTHONY, from the west
Texas-Oklahoma circuit: Sunland, Will Rogers, etc. He holds several
track records at Sunland, as well as breaking a Will Rogers 6-furlong
record in a close second place finish. He is a quick early speed horse
who will provide the faint-hearted with a can't-bear-to-watch stretch
drive. The stretch will seem to last an eternity as we hope this guy
can hang on.
His main competitor on the front is the 7-2 ML fave, EAGLE STORM, 4
for 4 at Cby with four Big (I mean HUGE) wins. But these walkaway wins
were as a 3-5 fave without much pressure on the front. Trained by the
great Justin Evans, this horse will be sharp but vulnerable if
pressured for the first time.
Next comes FOREST ATTACK, 4-1 ML, trained by none other than Michael
Maker, 5 wins in 10 lifetime races, 4 for 7 at the distance. But he's
not raced since May 26. Even though Maker is profitable with Lay-1
horses, this horse shows no win when racing fresh. Furthermore, all
his wins have been on synthetic surfaces, and he's been heavily
favored each time, suggesting he did not beat much. Next is TEMPO
FIVE, 5-1 in the ML, with the profitable Thomas Amoss as trainer. He
seems to show no weaknesses. He won his first five career races, but
then lost his next two as the beaten favorite. So he's coming into
this race with two losses as a beaten favorite. Finally, among the
good-lookers, there's PIVOT PAD, trained by previous Claiming Crown
winner David Van Winkle, 3 for 3 at Canterbury, including two big wins
(the last was a win thanks to a DQ). But his times seem too slow to
win this race.
Now back to FEARLESS ANTHONY. Was he just a big fish in a small desert
pond or can he gain the lead and hold it for the entire 6 furlongs? At
3-1 I wouldn't feel so great about taking the risk, but at 5-1 or 6-1,
this horse looks attractive, because of one particular factor. His 30%
trainer, Chris Hartman, has used a dirt-to-turf pattern as one of his
main weapons. In 36 tries with this move, he's gotten 36% wins and a
big flat-bet profit. Racing on the grass can give an extra dimension
to a horse's leg muscles. FEARLESS ANTHONY has had two grass sprints
as preps for this race.
In the match-up between Evans' EAGLE STORM and Hartman's FEARLESS
ANTHONY, Evans may have a secret weapon with his third horse in the
same race, SNEAKIN BY, who has been victorious in an 870 yard quarter
horse race. Could Sneakin' By be a hidden rabbit? Maybe. But FEARLESS
ANTHONY is the different horse, the one who's earned 100s in his DRF
speed ratings, even before the track variants are considered.
Unless I get a second wind, we'll have subsequent reports tomorrow, Friday.
PS. Longshot exotic inclusion with Derek Bell aboard: PRIVATE WAGER, 4
for 8 lifetime in sprints, mainly at Prairie Meadows, for a 31%
trainer, Chris Richard. This horse can press and pounce, and can win
on his best day if the two speed horses are backing up.

CLAIMING CROWN 2008: Report #1
This first CC report will concentrate on the two turf races, which in
the past have been ripe for surprises.
TIARA: Race 6
One of those surprises was INHONOROFJOHNNIE, who won this race at
nearly 11-1 in 2005, for the same longshot trainer, Owen McQuade.
She's back. Two races back, on the turf, she nearly equaled the Tampa
track record. No other filly or mare in this field has run a faster
race. This trainer earns a flat-bet profit for his backers in the
three listed categories, though not with a high win percentage,
implying that he's Mr. Pop-up. Johnnie's possible weak point is that
she may be a need-to-lead horse, and I've reflected this in my odds
line.
John Sadler's SIMPLY RUN is the class of the field on the turf, with
the highest earnings per race and a 10 6-2-1 record. Amazingly, Sadler
shows profits in three major categories with large samples. The mare
gets Rosario, who won with her at nearly 7-1. But she's got one
possible question mark: the distance. She's been primarily a sprinter,
but she has won at a flat mile. She figures to press INHONOROFJOHNIE.
SoCal horses often have trouble dealing with the Minnesota humidity
and this is also reflected in my line.
HOUSE QUEST comes into this event with two straight grass wins at
Belmont for an owner, Englander, who has ample Claiming Crown
experience. The filly came here early and turned in an impressive
work. She's a presser, which puts her in an ideal position.
COUPLE WHILES, with a profitable Cby trainer Rhone Bernell and
ALLNIGHTDANCE for the profitable turf trainer Derek Ryan have both
impressed at Tampa Bay against similar company, with ALLNIGHT once
having defeated the local threat, COUPLE WHILES. Interestingly, both
INHONOROFJOHNNIE and ALLNIGHTDANCE defeated (at Tampa) the same gal,
The Lady Waffles, by a similar margin. The two other entrants here
just seem slower, but both are coming off wins. In the end I cut out
CAT HOP because of his trainer's 4% record on turf, while excluding
NATURAL TENDANCY because of a serious question of distance. The same
filly she beat at a mile defeated her with an extra sixteenth.
However, NATURAL TENDENCY is yet another early speed threat.
Here's my line juxtaposed with the morning line. I've decided to make
the fast SIMPLY RUN as a most-likely winner in spite of the big early
speed contingent because she's won her mile race from off the pace, as
well as her sprints, and Sadler is a master at sprint-to-route. The
first numbers are my personal odds line, followed by the ML.
Simply Run  7-2 (need 5-1 for the overlay). 5-1 ML
Inhonorofjohnnie 4-1 (need 6-1). 4-1 ML
House Quest 4-1 (need 6-1). 7-2 ML
Allnightdance 5-1 (need 7.5-1). 5-2 ML
Couple Whiles 6-1 (need 9-1). 6-1 ML
The other two at 15-1.
Stay tuned, as I am willing to lower the odds of the presser House
Quest if information comes in on that lady.
EMERALD, Race 8
Too tough at this moment to make a line, as too many of these can win
this race on their best day. I do like three of these more than the
rest.
ONOTHEREGOSTOKYO gets the rail for local flat-bet-profit trainer Rhone
Bernell. The horse has a Cby Turf record of 7  3-1-1 and his fastest
race is as good as any other horse in the field: 9-2 ML. I place him
lower than that.
SELF MADE MAN goes for the dangerous flat-bet-profit trainer Michael
Maker, who brings his regular rider, Mena, for this horse. Has a class
edge over the others, is sharp now, and turf record is 8  3-1-2. Much
deserves the 2-1 ML designation.
MR PLAYWRIGHT has equaled the Cby turf mile record in a race that
looks like a once-in-a-lifetime effort, so the ML man has him at 12-1.
However, local horses have had a great advantage in Claiming Crown
turf races at high odds, so this horse can be used.
The weak point for the ML favorite is that he beat another horse in
this field, Por Favor, who is 0 for 3 on the grass. That was Por
Favor's only in-the-money finish, a second behind SELF MADE MAN.
More posts coming up. The featured Claiming Crown Jewel looks as
interesting and deeply contentious as the best of Breeders' Cup races,
so dig in.
Mark