Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Informed Minority
For the most part, these mentions do not change my personal analysis
and I would close my eyes and play all the Informed Minority horses as
one single wager.
I finally got my informed minority (IM) grids from the DRF. You know the rules.
I'll just mention a few that seem especially intriguing. I believe
it's Kachulis who has picked Icy Atlantic in the Mile. This is a
horse-for-Monmouth turf course that was hopelessly wide against
Trippi's Storm and After Market. Kachulis has had IM winners before.
Same race, Hovdey picks Silent Name. Lost by only a nk to Kip Deville
at the turf mile coming back after lay-1 and the lay-1 pattern is
repeated here for Frankel. Beyer (Trippi's Storm), Litfin (Jeremy, a
horse I've liked as well) and Farrell (Host) round out the IM picks in
the Mile.
For the BC Turf, Kachulis picks the toteblaster Fri Guy. I looked l o
n g at this horse, since it's the lone-F. Trainer Dale Romans is
capable of putting one over, opportunistically. The scenario is that
the going is heavy or soft, and it becomes more difficult to catch the
lone-F. The other factor in the butterfly effect is that the lone
presser, English Channel would not be able to take to the yielding
surface, which is a possibility.
One of the most intriguing of all the IM picks is Commentator in the
Sprint. I had looked long and hard at this NY-bred early on because he
loves winning after a layoff and the pattern match is on. Wins by 11,
by 6 and by 16, all lay-1s. I finally got off because he was about
1/10 in those weak NY fields. However, he was capable of reaching a
peak and winning the Whitney! And most impressive, he has 3 starts on
wet tracks and has won all three, all Big Wins.
You can scan the DRF grid to see the other IM picks. Last year's IM
winners came in the Sprint and the Mile, and these are the toughest of
the non-2yo races this year as well.
The IM is a separate wager, apart from one's regular play, so this
does not interfere with my previous posts.
mc

Report 5. Friday 26 Oct. (Report 4 was Nick Kling's selections)
Following this report, I'm pasting in a piece of research by Don,
based on some of our previous BC research. As for the informed
minority, my grid purveyor has not yet sent it to me. If they reduce
the grid to 4 or 5 handicappers instead of the more than 20, the
informed-minority bet is off.
As I said before, I am not going to change my analysis because of the
weather, but the track condition certainly adds an uncertainty factor.
Pedigree is not deterministic on the wet track, and in fact, some
horses my like one wet race course but not another.
CLASSIC. I'm sticking with ANY GIVEN SATURDAY as the key.
DISTAFF. I'm also sticking with LEAR'S PRINCESS as the key.
The above two are my preferred horses for the BC, even though both
fields are deeply contentious.
TURF. No surprise if Dylan Thomas wins, but I still prefer the lone
presser, ENGLISH CHANNEL. Red Rocks might move up if the track is
yielding, and if it weren't for a pace disadvantage, I would have
chosen Better Talk Now.
SPRINT. My usual strategy in the sprint is to LOOK FOR WIN OVERLAYS
AMONG THE CONTENDERS. If the odds are right you can play two or three
horses, that is, if you do not think that MIDNIGHT LUTE is a total
standout.
IDIOT PROOF is one of those potential overlays, at 10-1 in the ML.
GREG'S GOLD is a longshot inclusion.
We could dedicate a whole booklet on this race alone. The fact that
both Midnight Lute and Benny the Bull BOTH went up to sky high Beyers
in the same race suggests that the 124 Beyer is inflated. But even if
it were 115, MIDNIGHT LUTE would look good. Horses like Bordonaro,
Commentator and Talent Search have only one way to go, and from the
rail, Smokey Stover may have to commit. IDIOT PROOF and GREG'S GOLD
can stalk, and BENNY THE BULL cannot be excluded if there's a cave-in,
but MIDNIGHT LUTE will get the head start over Benny. ML has to deal
with the 2-hole, where he'll eventually have to weave through traffic.
GREG'S GOLD was definitely the best in the Ancient Title when losing
to Idiot Proof. Watch the replay for a great lesson in racing trouble.
But Greg's Gold's lone off track credential is not good, and his
pedigree leaves not hint that he'd relish the going. IDIOT PROOF on
the other hand, has Alydar and Bertrando as granddads, both of whom
have sired mudders. IDIOT PROOF has raced 6f in 107.2 at two different
tracks, including Monmouth. SMOKEY STOVER's stable is at the BC for a
second sprint try, and that usually makes a positive difference. He's
won at Monmouth, though at 1/10 in a 4-horse field. He is capable of
stalking.
If you are fully confused by this essay on the Sprint, then I will
have conveyed the right message.
MILE. I'm sticking with my two action candidates. Excellent Art is
marooned outside, After Market is suspect on soft going. Several legit
contenders will go unmentioned here. KIP DEVILLE skipped a workout
because of a physical problem but this always seems to happen to
Dutrow horses and then they win anyway. Can't get past his 9 6-1-0
record on turf at the distance. JEREMY is the trainer factor plus
jockey switch. This is definitely the race I know less about.
F&M. Key PASSAGE OF TIME.
Carla Gaines is one of my all-time favorite trainers. Bet her blindly
in every race and you come back with a profit. However, we have no
idea how her unbeaten NASHOBA'S KEY will do on soft going. What is
certain is that this filly has never been beaten. I'd never marry an
undefeated woman but I could bet on one. LAHUDOOD is even more likely
to be affected adversely by the going. PASSAGE OF TIME did not get up
on time in a Prix Vermeille race that favored the early speed of
eventual winner, Mrs. Lindsay, who came back to win. PASSAGE OF TIME
was ¾ behind the French Oaks winner, 3rd in an 11-horse field. She has
won twice on soft turf. She probably bred in the race prior to the
Vermeille, since she was favored against the best filly in Europe,
Peeping Fawn. PASSAGE OF TIME was an autumn 2006 winner over none
other that the eventual Irish Derby winner Soldier of Fortune. In
other words, PASSAGE OF TIME beat the best of the boys, and races well
in the autumn leaves.
I have decided to pass the two Juvenile races, which is nothing new
for me. Since I have nothing to offer in the way of special insight, I
will not saddle you with juvy-babble.

Research from Don:
i wanted to share this before the fact.  Horses who won either the
debut or debut 2 won a large per centage of  BC races in 2006 and
2005.  Further, horses who won their debut or debut 2 as a 3 year old
did even better..  The total picture for 2006 was that the 3 year old
qualifyers composed 27% of the runners and won 50% of the races for an
ROI of  1.86.  By contrast 2yo qualifyers composed 42% of the runners
and won 33% of the races for an ROI of 0.86.  Also 3 yo's, in addition
to their 50% win rate also placed in 4 of the 6 races while the 2yo's
had no place finishes but 4 show finishes.  This year the 3yo
qualifyers represent 17% of the entries--those are the ones i am going
to key on with win bets and dollar exactas because the logic of 3 yo
qualifyers is positive to me in that the 3 yo horses may have had
patient handling.   2 yo qualifyers may have matured quicker then the
others and 4 year old maiden qualifyers may have had problems. I also
know that in 2005, with incomplete information, the 3 yo qualifyers
did rather well. Of course, this excludes all juvenile races. This
information is very incomplete so i don't want to mislead anyone but
rather i sent this because if it has merit like i believe it may, it
would be worth some kind of research.  If it doesn't pan out this year
please disregard it.  thanks for sharing the debut information,   Mr.
Cramer.    don

Nick Kling has been featured in C&X, and is one of the nation's top
handicappers while keeping  a low profile. For your information, here
are his picks for Friday's BC races:
BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT: DREAM RUSH lost her first start of the year
  when trainer Rick Violette was experimenting. Her only other loss
came in a mile
  event where she was tagged right on the wire.  MISS MACY SUE'S only
2007 loss came
  at Saratoga when she sulked under hard rating by Edgar Prado. The
pace here should
  be fast, letting her run free and pick up the pieces.  MARYFIELD
likes a wet track
  and should be the best closer. The Doug O'Neill-trained mare should
benefit by a
  fast and contested pace.  SHAGGY MANE has the speed to clear with an
alert break.
  Draw a line through her last, which came over an artificial surface.
  1.Dream Rush, 2.Miss Macy Sue, 3.Maryfield, 4.Shaggy Mane
BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE TURF: ACHILL ISLAND is an improving colt who is
coming off
  his best race of the year. The son of premier sire Sadlers Wells
gets lasix for
  the first time and has his regular rider.  STRIKE THE DEAL is the
most accomplished
  turf horse in the field, having a Group 2 win and narrowly missing
in a Group 1.
  He is well bred to handle the mile distance.  GIO PONTI may be the best of the
  U.S. turf horses. He has won both his grass starts and possesses a strong late
  punch. Dominguez sticks.  PRUSSIAN has a tricky post and is unproven
on wet turf.
  He may prove that none of that matters.
  1.Achill Island, 2.Strike the Deal, 3.Gio Ponti, 4.Prussian
BREEDERS' CUP DIRT MILE: CORINTHIAN is a Grade 1 winner who defeated
Lawyer Ron in
  the Met Mile. The colt can be as fickle as the weather, but he has
tactical speed
  and should sit the good trip.  PARK AVENUE BALL is a Monmouth horse
for the course.
  He exits a pair of sprint sharpeners which should have him sitting perfectly
  behind the pace. Has the king of New Jersey riders.  GOTTCHA GOLD
also defeated
  Lawyer Ron and did it over this track. Has the premier gate and
speed rider, C.C.
  Lopez. If he shakes loose it will be sayonara.  WANDERIN BOY is a
major wet track
  move up. Has inside position on Gottcha Gold
  1.Corinthian, 2.Park Avenue Ball, 3.Gottcha Gold, 4.Wanderin Boy