Mark Cramer
C & X Report

ARC DE TRIOMPHE
Sometimes the totally unexpected can create waves that will divert the course of other seemingly unrelated events. Jockey Christophe Lemaire, scheduled to ride Staceilita in the Arc, was a victim of a fall, in an Arabian race no less (Qatar is the sponsor of the Arc, and part of the sponsorship involves carding Arabian races).
Today, in the pre-Arc card, Lemaire was off 7 mounts, and five of them won, in four stakes races and one handicap. One of the winning jockeys, Soumillon, was on Rouget's Tamazirte, who had finished second to Stacelita in the French Oaks. Tamazirte won this Group II race and, standing at the rail, I could hear Soumillon shout with joy, since he was back with short notice after a fall of his own and a crash effort to lose the weight gained during his absence.
What message do we have? First, an inspired Soumillon has inherited the mount on the filly Stacelita. Tamazirte's victory adds points to the value of Stacelita's win in the French Oaks. Furthermore, trainer Rouget, who usually cools off in the fall, has maintained his edge.
STACELITA becomes a must use in our Arc combinations.
Next, we should know that the Arc has produced 40% winning favorites. This is not the race to play "beat the favorite", trainer John Oxx is 6-for-14 in French races, and SEA THE STARS has defeated some very classy horses, one of whom, Fame and Glory, is entered here. SEA THE STARS cannot be demoted and must be used.
Ditto for VISION D'ETAT, winner last year of the French version of the Kentucky Derby. That was when he was a high-strung horse, difficult to manage. He has become a cool customer and won a race at Ascot, just to prove he can face different situations. I was at Longchamp for the three prep races, and usually the Prix Foy for older horses (where an un-pushed Vision d'Etat finished a close second) is run in a slower time than the other two preps, but this time it was the fastest of the three heats. Peslier is riding high these days, so well that he provides backers of all his mounts with a flat-bet profit. He's won the Arc before and he figures to improve on Vision d'Etat's fifth-place in last year's Arc. V-d-E is 8 for 11 lifetime and knows this course.
Those are my three must-use horses, in no particular order, though I must say that the ease of Vision's Prix Foy race suggests he is being cranked up for the Arc. His co-owners rejected some lucrative offers to buy this horse.
Now please understand that this is one of the most deeply classy fields I have ever seen in racing, and horses I now mention have a right to participate in the finish.
The 6-y-old YOUMZAIN has finished second in the last two Arcs, a huge odds. He rarely wins but he thrives on opportunistically picking up pieces. This race has rabbits and fast paced horses, and Youmzain is ideally placed. Perhaps a little less impressive this year, he gets a hot passenger in Kieran Fallon, who is riding high these days following his return to racing.
Next comes Fabre's CAVALRYMAN, who like Stacelita, was supplemented for this race. CAVALRYMAN follows the same trajectory as Fabre's previous longshot Arc winner, Rail Link: won the Grand Prix de Paris and the Prix Niel, both at this track and this distance. Normally his prep, the Prix Niel, has produced the most Arc winners of any race, but this year it looked a little on the weak side, with two horses from that field failing in a Grade II today. Fabre did not do well today, and he's not at his top. But that could have been said when he won with Rail Link.
Please note that the trainers of both Cavalryman and Vision d'Etat have stated that Sea the Stars was intrinsicaclly better than their horse.
So I have Cavalryman and Youmzain on my B team.
But this is such a great field that the C team would be considered the best any other year. On the C team are Fame and Glory (only two losses in 7 races were to Sea the Stars, Beheshtam (because the Aga Khan stable and their trainer Royer Dupré are red hot!!!).
Both Conduit and the filly Dar Re Mi (Gosden won a Grade II today) have a right to be in the winning superfecta, but only with a perfect trip and the possibility that the above horses wear each other out in the intense competition. Yes Dar Re Mi legitimately defeated Stacelita in the Vermeille, but at the press conference prior to that race, Christophe Lemaire, Stacelita's rider, stated clearly that this was a prep for the Arc and they were not going to over-use the filly. Dar Re Mi was DQed unjustly and certainly was the best in the Vermeille.
Finally, usually in the Arc, some secondary horse that is completely unexpected gets into the top four. But the Czech and Brazilian horses, for example, simply do not seem dominant enough to hang in there, and mainly, the above horses are all so good, that at least four of them should finish ahead of the rest.
In order I would place Sea the Stars, Vision d'Etat, Stacelita, Cavalryman, Youmzain, and then the C team.
Mark
Prix de l'Opera: take the hot stable, Alpine Rose, who was originally entered in the Arc.

ps.
Forgot to mention Beheshtam on C team, since the Royer-Duprès-Aga Khan stable is red hot.
Also, two horses that could be opportunisits, if the best ones do too much battle against each other:
Magadan, horse for course at Longchamp, this distance
and
Getaway, sharp now, once 4th in Arc.
mc