Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Mark
Derby 2009 Final Post but …
As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave something
for Saturday morning in case there is any new development, something
that happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Code
on Saturday morning.
I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirely
different reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to the
potential value.
Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I’ve said in previous
posts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker in
the Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haven
twice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10
lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP’s
stable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP’s pedigree
and the fact that he’s won on the mud, in case the rain is
significant.
Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF’s big
improve was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there is
a good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday and
Saturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twice
finished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second for
LJ.
Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo’s description of the
Wood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If for
some reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, I
would reverse this order of preference.
POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage of
a track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get an
early-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join the
Dance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route races
and gotten beaten both times. RR’s only bad race was on synthetic
surface.
FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD’s only knock is lack of
experience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has Triple
Crown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whose
picture has been taken with the Derby favorites.
I don’t know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he should
contend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,
Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to have
only raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and see
reasons why, but if he does and I don’t have him, I will sleep well
anyway.
PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue to
feel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not been
on dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not have
to make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they would
just run ‘em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can’t even
defeat invading turf shippers on their own “soil”. Again, if Baffert
wins this one, I will still sleep well.
mc

Mark
Derby 2009 Final Post but …
As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave something
for Saturday morning in case there is any new development, something
that happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Code
on Saturday morning.
I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirely
different reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to the
potential value.
Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I’ve said in previous
posts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker in
the Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haven
twice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10
lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP’s
stable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP’s pedigree
and the fact that he’s won on the mud, in case the rain is
significant.
Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF’s big
improve was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there is
a good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday and
Saturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twice
finished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second for
LJ.
Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo’s description of the
Wood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If for
some reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, I
would reverse this order of preference.
POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage of
a track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get an
early-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join the
Dance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route races
and gotten beaten both times. RR’s only bad race was on synthetic
surface.
FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD’s only knock is lack of
experience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has Triple
Crown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whose
picture has been taken with the Derby favorites.
I don’t know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he should
contend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,
Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to have
only raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and see
reasons why, but if he does and I don’t have him, I will sleep well
anyway.
PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue to
feel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not been
on dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not have
to make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they would
just run ‘em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can’t even
defeat invading turf shippers on their own “soil”. Again, if Baffert
wins this one, I will still sleep well.
mc

Mark
Derby 2009 Final Post but …
As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave something
for Saturday morning in case there is any new development, something
that happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Code
on Saturday morning.
I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirely
different reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to the
potential value.
Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I’ve said in previous
posts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker in
the Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haven
twice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10
lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP’s
stable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP’s pedigree
and the fact that he’s won on the mud, in case the rain is
significant.
Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF’s big
improve was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there is
a good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday and
Saturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twice
finished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second for
LJ.
Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo’s description of the
Wood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If for
some reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, I
would reverse this order of preference.
POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage of
a track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get an
early-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join the
Dance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route races
and gotten beaten both times. RR’s only bad race was on synthetic
surface.
FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD’s only knock is lack of
experience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has Triple
Crown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whose
picture has been taken with the Derby favorites.
I don’t know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he should
contend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,
Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to have
only raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and see
reasons why, but if he does and I don’t have him, I will sleep well
anyway.
PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue to
feel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not been
on dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not have
to make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they would
just run ‘em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can’t even
defeat invading turf shippers on their own “soil”. Again, if Baffert
wins this one, I will still sleep well.
mc

Mark
Derby 2009 Final Post but …
As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave something
for Saturday morning in case there is any new development, something
that happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Code
on Saturday morning.
I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirely
different reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to the
potential value.
Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I’ve said in previous
posts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker in
the Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haven
twice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10
lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP’s
stable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP’s pedigree
and the fact that he’s won on the mud, in case the rain is
significant.
Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF’s big
improve was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there is
a good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday and
Saturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twice
finished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second for
LJ.
Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo’s description of the
Wood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If for
some reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, I
would reverse this order of preference.
POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage of
a track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get an
early-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join the
Dance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route races
and gotten beaten both times. RR’s only bad race was on synthetic
surface.
FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD’s only knock is lack of
experience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has Triple
Crown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whose
picture has been taken with the Derby favorites.
I don’t know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he should
contend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,
Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to have
only raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and see
reasons why, but if he does and I don’t have him, I will sleep well
anyway.
PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue to
feel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not been
on dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not have
to make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they would
just run ‘em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can’t even
defeat invading turf shippers on their own “soil”. Again, if Baffert
wins this one, I will still sleep well.
mc

Derby 2009 Final Post but …
As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave something
for Saturday morning in case there is any new development, something
that happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Code
on Saturday morning.
I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirely
different reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to the
potential value.
Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I’ve said in previous
posts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker in
the Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haven
twice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10
lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP’s
stable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP’s pedigree
and the fact that he’s won on the mud, in case the rain is
significant.
Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF’s big
improve was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there is
a good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday and
Saturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twice
finished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second for
LJ.
Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo’s description of the
Wood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If for
some reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, I
would reverse this order of preference.
POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage of
a track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get an
early-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join the
Dance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route races
and gotten beaten both times. RR’s only bad race was on synthetic
surface.
FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD’s only knock is lack of
experience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has Triple
Crown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whose
picture has been taken with the Derby favorites.
I don’t know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he should
contend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,
Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to have
only raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and see
reasons why, but if he does and I don’t have him, I will sleep well
anyway.
PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue to
feel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not been
on dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not have
to make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they would
just run ‘em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can’t even
defeat invading turf shippers on their own “soil”. Again, if Baffert
wins this one, I will still sleep well.
mc

Derby 2009 Final Post but …
As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave something
for Saturday morning in case there is any new development, something
that happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Code
on Saturday morning.
I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirely
different reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to the
potential value.
Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I’ve said in previous
posts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker in
the Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haven
twice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10
lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP’s
stable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP’s pedigree
and the fact that he’s won on the mud, in case the rain is
significant.
Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF’s big
improve was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there is
a good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday and
Saturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twice
finished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second for
LJ.
Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo’s description of the
Wood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If for
some reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, I
would reverse this order of preference.
POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage of
a track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get an
early-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join the
Dance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route races
and gotten beaten both times. RR’s only bad race was on synthetic
surface.
FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD’s only knock is lack of
experience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has Triple
Crown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whose
picture has been taken with the Derby favorites.
I don’t know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he should
contend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,
Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to have
only raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and see
reasons why, but if he does and I don’t have him, I will sleep well
anyway.
PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue to
feel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not been
on dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not have
to make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they would
just run ‘em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can’t even
defeat invading turf shippers on their own “soil”. Again, if Baffert
wins this one, I will still sleep well.
mc

Derby 2009 Final Post but …
As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave something
for Saturday morning in case there is any new development, something
that happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Code
on Saturday morning.
I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirely
different reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to the
potential value.
Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I’ve said in previous
posts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker in
the Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haven
twice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10
lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP’s
stable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP’s pedigree
and the fact that he’s won on the mud, in case the rain is
significant.
Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF’s big
improve was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there is
a good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday and
Saturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twice
finished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second for
LJ.
Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo’s description of the
Wood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If for
some reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, I
would reverse this order of preference.
POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage of
a track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get an
early-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join the
Dance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route races
and gotten beaten both times. RR’s only bad race was on synthetic
surface.
FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD’s only knock is lack of
experience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has Triple
Crown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whose
picture has been taken with the Derby favorites.
I don’t know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he should
contend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,
Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to have
only raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and see
reasons why, but if he does and I don’t have him, I will sleep well
anyway.
PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue to
feel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not been
on dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not have
to make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they would
just run ‘em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can’t even
defeat invading turf shippers on their own “soil”. Again, if Baffert
wins this one, I will still sleep well.
mc