Mark Cramer
C & X Report

ARC REPORT
Here is an attempt at an objective report on the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
FAVORITES. The favorite has won 7 of the last 10 runnings, above 40 percent overall.
This stat favors either Hurricane Run or the filly Shawanda.
FEMALES. A 3-year-old filly has not won this race since 1982. This stat goes against Shawanda, who was the fave in the Brit books.
Older femmes have won in 1983 and 1993. Pride is the older femme, and she beat the boys in the Prix Foy at Longchamp, faster final time than the Prix Niel and Prix Vermeille, the two other preps the same day.
PREPS. The Prix Niel, won this year by Hurricane Run, has produced 7 winners in the last 10 Arcs, among them five Prix Niel winners. The horse Hurricane Run defeated in the Prix Niel by 3 lengths finished third in a very competitive Group II on the Saturday Longchamp card.
The Prix Foy, on the other hand, has produced zero Arc winners in the last 10 years and only one in the last 20. Not a great sign for Pride.
The Prix Vermeille for femmes has also produced zero Arc winners in the past 10 years, not good for co-favorite Shawanda.
The Grosser Pres Von Baden winner in Germany has produced one winner, one second and one third in the past 10 Arcs. That gives 7-year-old Warrsan a chance, though the marathon champ Westerner and last year’s Arc place horse Cherry Mix also raced better than their finish position indicated at Baden Baden. Westerner’s near perfect marathon record has not been against the finest classic horses but at least he’s prepped at the Arc distance (against a pace that was too slow for him and with trouble finding room) and Cherry Mix, with Dettori up, would much prefer a softer course. Listed as soft today, but since morning, it stopped drizzling. This track may be “good” by tomorrow. This would be Cherry Mix’s second start after a long layoff. He captured the lead from the outside at Baden Baden and did not relinquish until into the stretch. The Bin Suroor-Dettori combo has won with a Baden Baden prepper in a previous Arc (Mariendbard, 2002). Please watch carefully for the track condition. The softer it’s listed, the better chance for Cherry Mix or Westerner.
FINAL TIME. Scorpion, Hurricane Run’s entry mate, shows the Longchamp track record back in the summer. However, Scorpion comes from a 2,900 meter marathon race, and marathon preps have not produced a single Arc winner in the last 20 years. The horse that Scorpion defeated in the St. Leger Stakes came back today to finish a mediocre fourth of 7.
POST POSITION. No rail horse has won since 1964, the first year they used a starting gate. This may hurt Shawanda, who needs running space. Only one post position, from 1 through 15 has NEVER won the Arc: the 6. If Hurricane Run wins, some will say “6 was due”.
NEGATIVE KEY RACES. No horses from the Prix Vermeille are running in Sunday’s Prix de l’Opera. (Alexander Goldrun should win that one.) Motivator’s Epsom Derby also looks much like a negative key race, and he previously defeated The Geezer, who gave us a mediocre showing Saturday’s. The Geezer was previously the bridesmaid to Scorpion.
The second and third place finishers from Hurricane Run’s Prix Niel both lost grade II races on Saturday’s card, though one of them raced competitively.
This elevates the value of Pride’s Prix Foy, which was finished a second and a half faster than the Prix Niel. However, I’ve seen such final time anomalies lead to nothing in the past .
TRAINERS/JOCKEYS. Hurricane Run has the Arc’s winningest trainer, André Fabre, 5 wins. Next is Bin Suroor (Cherry Mix) with three. Both Dettori (Cherry Mix) and Peslier (Westerner) have three Arc wins, with Dettori’s coming more recently.
STATLESS. The statless horse is Bago, winner of last year’s Arc. His stable has lots of legitimate excuses for his three subpar performances, but Norse Dancer (a huge longshot who has never won a Grade I race) has defeated Bago twice in three times.
On the other hand, Niarchos could properly say of Bago, “we got ‘em where we want ‘em, since Bago came into last year’s Arc off two losses, including a third behind none other than Norse Dancer. The stable has decided to race this horse with a 9 week layoff. Their reasoning may come from the fact that his last win was the Grade I Prix Ganay following an 8-month break. They don’t want a heavy surface and the rains seem gone.
AGE. Three year olds have won eight of the last ten Arcs.
The above info is objective and you should analyze it as you wish, not necessarily slicing it the way I will do now. My take:
Aside from the big trainer-owner-jockey combo, Shawanda faces the boys and elders for the first time, draws the rail and figures to be boxed in, raced the slowest of the Arc preps, and goes up against the Arc filly draught. This horse is the potential favorite. The filly could win, but the value’s not there. So taking a stand against this filly seems like a good start, though somewhat shaky since owner Aga Khan is dead serious.
In the last 44 Arcs, no horse above 5 years old has ever won, and only three 5-year-olds have won. If we got statistical, we could thus throw out the elders Mubtaker, Westerner, and Warrsan (a horse for course in Germany who loses elsewhere).
Toss the two rabbits: Voltmeter and Windya.
Norse Dancer’s never won a Grade I. His trainer’s 0 for 14 in France. Toss. Also toss Samando, whose trainer is 9 for 170 and whose jockey hasn’t won in France in 7 tries.
If it fails to rain, I’d toss Cherry Mix, whose last two wins came on a heavy turf courses, and who faces a bounce situation: second after layoff. Shirocco has the same bounce pattern.
That leaves us with five horses:
Hurricane Run: my most likely winner when all the stats are blended, and maybe an overlay with all the Brits in the grandstand backing their own trainers.
Scorpion: holds the track record.
Bago: should be relishing the layoff.
Pride: longshot exotic inclusion, victim of violent traffic incident in last year’s Arc and sharp now, having defeated Red Bloom, who came back to win a Group II race authoritatively.
Motivator: whose stock will rise if Alexander Goldrun wins Prix de l’Opera.
That leaves us with one last question. Shawanda’s Irish Oaks win was more than two seconds faster than Hurricane Run’s Irish Derby win, different days, same track condition. However, the timeform rating for those races is 127 for HR and 124 for Shawanda. Stats on preps and fillies, as well as post position, both play against this filly. But the Aga Khan paid so much to supplement a second rabbit that his filly would have to finish fourth just to get the supplement back.. Of course, the Aga Khan is first and foremost a breeder, and for him it’s worth the gamble if it helps the filly get in the money and get pregnant. She’s the daughter of an Arc winner, but she’s the likely favorite against the boys, and in racing you gotta take a stand somewhere.
PS. In the earlier Prix Lagardiere, Grand Criterium, Spiritu Del Viento was one of the few horses who raced against the severe anti-inside bias in second-half-of-August Deauville. It was a period when most winners were coming out so wide that railbirds could feel the wind from their tails. Got a chance against the undefeated and legit favorite, Horatio Nelson.