Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Reader post.
Hi Mark,I am not one too give a detailed analysis, but I liketo point out overlooked situations. Everyone istalking about Pimlico's tight turns and speed favoringbias. No one mentions how long the stretch is. Giacomo will have time to get up. I prefer to have ahorse that is feeling good and has shown he fits withthis group. Mike Smith will navigate properly. Theforgotten horse, from all I read, is Sun King andZito(Louis Quatorze).Bill
Cramer comments:
Sun King was a "big win" horse against Survivalist, who's no slouch, and the Louis Quatorze parallel is apt. If Sun King wins, he'll prove that "nice guys don't finish last" as Bejarano is an all-around nice guy. If you reread my comments on Giacomo, you'll see that he matched up favorably against all the other closers in the Derby, and he's also capable of staying up closer. My theory on pace is that it's often determined by jockey psychology. The Preakness is often a pace backlash from the Derby, with jockeys bending in the other direction to compensate for having blown it in the Derby.
PS. Jon, a specialist in getting slow horses to run fast races, chimed back in with other reasons for liking Malibu Sunshine, but you got the idea.
C&X stands for "Cramer and other X-rated handicappers". You guys certainly qualify.

This post from Jon, who gave us Closing Argument in the Derby, and if King Leatherbury reads this he'll hire Jon as his lawyer.
mc
Hi Mark,I hated all of them going into the Derby this year, even the one that I"liked" - Closing Argument. The Derby didn't change my mind, I still hatethem all.After the Derby, I decided that this was as likely a year for a local horseto win as you could get. If I didn't like any of them going into the Derbyand the Derby itself was a poor race for everybody - then it sure makessense to me to look for a horse whose trainer's main goal is the Preakness.Only two horses seem to fit that description, Scrappy T and MalibuMoonshine. My initial inclination between those two was Scrappy T becauseof his in-the-money record and because he runs faster than Malibu Moonshine.I liked the same things that you mentioned about Scrappy T on the C&X site.However, a few things intrigued me about Malibu Moonshine and after goingover it I have settled on that one for my token Preakness bet. I'm keepingit simple, an across-the-board wager and a "saver" superfecta with Malibukeyed in the 4th slot with Scrappy T, Closing Argument both having to finishin the top 3. I'll use the "ALL" button as my 4th horse in each slot tocomplete my $33 super-saver!Here is what I like about Malibu Moonshine: King Leatherbury.That's about it. I've never been a tremendous fan of Leatherbury - justaware of his reputation during his real "heyday". He has been in a generalslump for several years - hitting between 8%-11%, but has seemed to find arecent rejuvenation. He currently finds himself atop the Pimlico trainerstandings - 9 wins in 18 starts. He has been winning about 25% at CharlesTown (and he runs his personally owned horses there when he wants a niceslots-infused purse all to himself). At Laurel, he won nearly 20% and 60%in-the-money. He has won 23% overall in 2005 - and has been winning abouttwice the rate over the past year as he had been doing in recent years. Hehas found a "money horse" in Malibu Moonshine - one that has gotten himpurses in 100k races rather than the usual fare of 8k-30k purses. The horseis at home where he likes it (he is stabled and trains at Laurel). Thehorse has won twice at Pimlico, as a 2 year old and as a 3 year old - mostrecently in the Tesio while the last minute hopefuls for the Derby wererunning in the Lexington Stakes. Since Leatherbury put blinkers on thiscloser, he has won 4 out of 5 races. During this streak, his races havebeen each been better than the last, other than in his one loss which wasthe only race where he was not able to sleep in his own bed the night before(shipped to Turfway). The jockey is the leading rider at Pimlico, and hehas ridden him in his best three performances. His best race was thelongest race of his career. He is running for the 8th time without alayoff - and Leatherbury is a trainer who wins more often with his runnerswho have not had recent extended rest. (I cannot get my hands on it now,but I had looked at his record over a 7 year period - and his record withhorses with 5 or more races after a layoff was much better than his record1/2/3/4 after a layoff. He races them to keep them in shape - with "short"breaks rather than 45+ day layoffs.) The horse's out-of-the-money startswere 2nd/1st/2nd after layoffs and the one time that he couldn't stay athome in his 5th after-a-layoff attempt.Leatherbury is just doing what he does with this horse - nothing remarkablydifferent than another day at the office for him. Many trainers seem tochoke on the things that they want the most - and typically it is becausethey do things that they are not good at because they think that they shoulddo something "special" for the prizes they covet the most. You mentionedthat Closing Argument should be better in the Preakness than in the Derby,because "statistically, three preps have been needed for Derby success". Inthe case of Closing Argument, you may very well be correct, as once againMcLaughlin is fantastic on 3rd after a layoff in routes (which will be whyhe is in my "saver" superfecta - Scrappy T will be the other part becausethe trainer has done well at Pimlico specifically with his 3rd after-layoffhorses). But he is just as good on 1st and 2nd after in routes. I believethat he had Closing Argument as ready as he could get him for the Derby andthe Derby was the BIG prize that he wanted. The Preakness is theconsolation - not THE race that he wanted. Frankel screws up in theBreeders Cup, and now has been likely screwing up for the Derby because hedoes those races differently than he does when he wins his big races. Hemust have read the DRF guide to Derby/BC success - because he follows the"accepted" pattern for success for those races rather than his own patternfor success in all of the other G1 races during the year.Leatherbury is not changing his own success formula for this special race -just putting his horse in a race that he believes that he can win or get anice purse, and has prepared the horse in his "personal best" pattern ratherthan the "wise guy" pattern. Hot trainer. Hot Jockey. A horse that likesto win, especially with home cooking and sleeping in his own bed. Thatsounds good to me.Of course, I could be wrong.Jon