Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Breeders' Cup
Report 1, Wednesday 24 October 2007
In this report, we will browse through three races with first
impressions. In the end, there may be several we will pass some races
entirely. Just because it's a BC race does not mean you have to play
it. One point. Most experts rave about exotics. For me, the BC offers
good win bet opportunities, and there are often too many legit
outsiders to construct exotic tickets. As in the past, we often
recommend multiple win possibilities. We've collected on many a
longshot this way, but have not taken credit because it was not an
only contender. It's not who do you like or who do you pick, but which
horses are offering betting value.
CLASSIC
Lawyer Ron, legit fave as he may be (5-2 ML) comes from a weaker crop
than this year's 3yos, so I would prefer the younger horses at higher
odds. If LR had been 5-1, it would be a different story. Street Sense
is sharp as nails. However, he was a horse for course at Churchill,
and his two wins since the Derby came against weak horses that
wouldn't stand a chance in this field. He then lost to Hard Spun in a
4-horse field. Hard Spun is a true battler but I see little evidence
that he can beat a rpimed Curlin. Curlin was not cranked up all the
way when coming back after 2 months to get defeated by Any Given
Saturday and Hard Spun. Tiago and Awesome Gem have both done well on
the cushion track but have never risen to the top in this generation.
That leaves ANY GIVEN SATURDAY. He's fourth favorite in the ML. He
defeated a field in the Haskell that outclassed the fields of Street
Sense's recent wins. His Kentucky Derby, from post 18, can be tossed
out.. Since then he's reeled off 3 straight with Gomez. I feel that
AGS is the overlay in this field.
TURF
How can you not like the 7-5 favorite, Dylan Thomas. What a bold move
in the Arc. He looked like a hockey player, knocking his opponents off
their feet. But can we take the price. My main positive comment on
Dylan Thomas leading into the Arc was that he was 5 for 5 with Fallon.
Now he's 6 for 6 with Fallon, but Fallon's not allowed to ride in the
USA. With other riders DT is 4 for 12. He's lost two races at 2-1 and
has lost two others at 1-2 and 4-5. Two of his wins were at 1-2 and
2-5. The two horses that finished behind him in the Arc were not grade
1 winners. In fact, the third horse, Sagara, had only one career win.
For these reasons, I would not use DT as a win bet, though I wouldn't
leave him out of exotics because he is the best horse in the field.
The third favorite, Red Rocks, last year's Turf winner, has been
trounced twice by Dylan Thomas. English Channel, the second fave, is
often a beaten favorite, but he is 2 for 2 on the Monmouth turf, and
this could be the time when he finally wins a BC Turf. He's lost
twice.
English Channel and Better Talk Now take turns beating each other. The
form has 5-2 ML odds and the latter is 9-2, so why not simply take the
one among equal horses with the highest odds. BETTER TALK NOW has been
in this race three times, with a win at 27-1, an off the board in a
wide trip, and a second at 18-1 to Red Rocks. BETTER TALK NOW is the
overachiever. But he's coming back after a nearly 4-month layoff.
Trainer Graham Motion has a relatively poor record off layoffs (though
a superb record on turf). BTN's record at Monmouth is not as
flattering as that of English Channel, but he is 4 1-1-1: not bad.
Especially baffling is the pace scenario.
In a very similar paceless race with several of these same horses, the
United Nations at Monmouth, Fri Guy had the slow early lead with
English Channel as the lone presser. Fri Guy gave up the lead in the
stretch, losing by less than 4 lengths, with English Channel
inheriting the win. Better Talk Now got up for third, 3 lengths back.
ENGLISH CHANNEL, a horse I've always played against, is now in a race
with a perfect set-up: lone presser with faves having to close wide on
tight turns, and EC is 2 for 2 on the Monmouth turf.
My heart wants me to choose BTN but ENGLISH CHANNEL will have first
shot at the cheap speed horse, and in reality, EC is the lone F in
relation to the rest of the field.
BC F&M SPRINT
DREAM RUSH's Saratoga 6f split was 108.4. Next best Saratoga 6f split
in this field comes from Baroness Thatcher: 109.1.
Dream Rush's Bel 6f time also tops the rest. He did 109, and the next
best 109.3, with Orphan Winnie.
Dream Rush runs well fresh: a win by 9, a close-up place, and a win as
a first-time starter. Violette has a flat-bet profit with lay-1. La
Traviata has slower times but as a lightly raced horse, has a right to
improve, and has a win at Monmouth. But the longshot candidate is WILD
GEMS. Dream Rush defeated the consistent Baroness Thatcher by 2 ¼, the
exact same distance that Wild Gems defeated the Baroness. But then we
have MISS MACY SUE, who just defeated Wild Gems. MISS MACY SUE is 4
for 4 with Razo aboard.  MISS MACY SUE could have a perfect pressing
trip. She loves to win.
Next report Thursday.
mc