Mark Cramer
C & X Report

POSTSCRIPT
In scanning the DRF handicapper picks, I've never seen such a wide array of opinions. It's a game of probabilities and possibilities, and three different people, all sensible, can have radically different opinions.
One of our readers, Rob, is taking a stand in favor of Wait a While in the F&M. James Quinn also expressed awe at the possibilities of this California 3yo. Sooner or later we learn that no one has a monopoly on truth in racing and that's why it's such a great game.
For your interest, here's the post that Rob sent. Rob is an accomplished horseplayer with proven credentials. I add his opinions only to illustrate how monumentally complex this game is.
mc

Subject: Early BC Handicapping

In part my own picks but also based on observatins of the Works crew and Cramer, etc.

Cramer makes a convincing case for Scorpion and I have a feeling we'll get better than 6-1; I predict 8-1. I automatically bet the leading Euro in this race, especially since the turf is taking moisture this week.

I will play a DD with Scorpion to Brother Derek & Lava Man with a saver on Bernadini. Invasor is 8 for 9 and 3-3 in America despite always finding trouble but he missed training and his competion is in question. You also have the Euro-Turf-pretenders looking for a miracle and big bucks in the breeding shed; they will take some $ and give us a little better odds. If Lava Man goes off at his ML of 6-1 or even 5-1 he is a bet. His first 1/4 and 1/2 in the Pacific Classic were a second faster than Invasor's Suburban and I think the tracks were playing about the same. That suggests Invasor is the more likely pace casualty even though he won't be in front. He'll be one of a number of horses jockying for position behind Brother Derek (who must go from the rail) and Suave. In behind will be Lawyer Ron, Lava Man, Invasor, Flower Alley and Bernadini, so some of the horses looking to be in the 2nd flight will not get good/desirable trips. I think Brother Derek is a must play since he is coming up to the race perfectly and I still believe in his talent. As I mentioned, an all-Cali exacta box is a must! Bernadidni could pass his peak at anytime and has yet to face a top older horse.

In the Juvie Filly I will use the fav, Cash Included. In her only 2-turn start she was the runaway winner of the Oak Leaf and owns the best dirt-route Beyer. She is said to be training great.

In the Juvie, the ML fav Circular Quay is said to be training great but his lone 2-turn effort was a disappointment, albeit over the polytrack. Great Hunter just beat him and will be longer odds. Stormello won the Norfolk after relaxnig off the pace, and like Cash Included he is proven around two turns. Principle Secret is said to be looking/training poorly.

I know Cramer likes a longshot in the F&M Turf but Oijua Board is maga-classy (competing against Europe's best males) and Wait A While is an absolute monster who has won her last 4 races by 4 lengths plus without taking a deep breath. This seems like a good race to pass.

In the Sprint I like Bordinaro, and he drew a great post- 6.

In the Mile I like Afaafa. He is back in only two weeks; once he came back in three and ran well. He drew post 3.

In the Distaff I like Pine Island but I expected to get better than the 5-1 ML. She drew well (#2) for a closer and I suspect she will go off at 7-1,which is a fair price.

And from this morning on the f&m turf:

I've decided to take a stand with Wait A While. I think she gets first run and she has never shown any signs of slowing down so I think Ouija Board or Satwa Queen will not get to her but I will use them underneath in straight exactas. I'll use Wait A While in multi-race exotics as well.

POSTSCRIPT
In scanning the DRF handicapper picks, I've never seen such a wide array of opinions. It's a game of probabilities and possibilities, and three different people, all sensible, can have radically different opinions.
One of our readers, Rob, is taking a stand in favor of Wait a While in the F&M. James Quinn also expressed awe at the possibilities of this California 3yo. Sooner or later we learn that no one has a monopoly on truth in racing and that's why it's such a great game.
For your interest, here's the post that Rob sent. Rob is an accomplished horseplayer with proven credentials. I add his opinions only to illustrate how monumentally complex this game is.
mc

Subject: Early BC Handicapping

In part my own picks but also based on observatins of the Works crew and Cramer, etc.

Cramer makes a convincing case for Scorpion and I have a feeling we'll get better than 6-1; I predict 8-1. I automatically bet the leading Euro in this race, especially since the turf is taking moisture this week.

I will play a DD with Scorpion to Brother Derek & Lava Man with a saver on Bernadini. Invasor is 8 for 9 and 3-3 in America despite always finding trouble but he missed training and his competion is in question. You also have the Euro-Turf-pretenders looking for a miracle and big bucks in the breeding shed; they will take some $ and give us a little better odds. If Lava Man goes off at his ML of 6-1 or even 5-1 he is a bet. His first 1/4 and 1/2 in the Pacific Classic were a second faster than Invasor's Suburban and I think the tracks were playing about the same. That suggests Invasor is the more likely pace casualty even though he won't be in front. He'll be one of a number of horses jockying for position behind Brother Derek (who must go from the rail) and Suave. In behind will be Lawyer Ron, Lava Man, Invasor, Flower Alley and Bernadini, so some of the horses looking to be in the 2nd flight will not get good/desirable trips. I think Brother Derek is a must play since he is coming up to the race perfectly and I still believe in his talent. As I mentioned, an all-Cali exacta box is a must! Bernadidni could pass his peak at anytime and has yet to face a top older horse.

In the Juvie Filly I will use the fav, Cash Included. In her only 2-turn start she was the runaway winner of the Oak Leaf and owns the best dirt-route Beyer. She is said to be training great.

In the Juvie, the ML fav Circular Quay is said to be training great but his lone 2-turn effort was a disappointment, albeit over the polytrack. Great Hunter just beat him and will be longer odds. Stormello won the Norfolk after relaxnig off the pace, and like Cash Included he is proven around two turns. Principle Secret is said to be looking/training poorly.

I know Cramer likes a longshot in the F&M Turf but Oijua Board is maga-classy (competing against Europe's best males) and Wait A While is an absolute monster who has won her last 4 races by 4 lengths plus without taking a deep breath. This seems like a good race to pass.

In the Sprint I like Bordinaro, and he drew a great post- 6.

In the Mile I like Afaafa. He is back in only two weeks; once he came back in three and ran well. He drew post 3.

In the Distaff I like Pine Island but I expected to get better than the 5-1 ML. She drew well (#2) for a closer and I suspect she will go off at 7-1,which is a fair price.

And from this morning on the f&m turf:

I've decided to take a stand with Wait A While. I think she gets first run and she has never shown any signs of slowing down so I think Ouija Board or Satwa Queen will not get to her but I will use them underneath in straight exactas. I'll use Wait A While in multi-race exotics as well.

FINAL BC SUMMARY
A. Strong; B. Good; C. Moderate insight. D. Worth a small action bet and exotic inclusion.
JUVENILE FILLIES
Pass. Came up with the two faves, have respect for Catalano, but odds look too low.
JUVENILE
PEGASUS WIND (C). Improves as stretches out. Heavy track didn't help in last. Gets first lasix. Lukas still good with this type of horse.
FILLIES & MARES
SATWA QUEEN (A). Will use every which way. Ouija Board, Germance, Wait a While and Quiet Royal (insiders told me there had been disagreements about how this horse should have been handled, and that the rider won his case).
SPRINT
LEWIS MICHAEL (D). Sincerely, the horse looks too slow, but I respect the trainer, and respect the fact that the horse has been in the lead at the 6f in his last three. Some public handicappers have spoken well of Kelly's Landing but LM has better Keeneland fractions than Kelly. I was almost ready to drop Lewis Michael completely, but when I saw that not one single DRF handicapper has picked this horse anywhere in the money, I said to myself, "we got 'em where we want 'em".
MILE
Slight change here. I'm keying two horses, with win money on both:
ROB ROY (D), for the same reasons I mentioned in other posts, and especially so now, since no one in the DRF picks him, and,
ECHO OF LIGHT (D), who I believe comes from the same race that Domedriver came from, and is reaching a peak. Echo of Light is an "informed minority" horse, with only Brad Free picking him.
Three fourths of this large field could win this race. You can make arguments for many of the usual suspects. I fear Gorella from the outside (a good post historically in the Mile), and what happens if the best horse intrinsically in this race, Librettist, gets over his lameness. All the horses whose names begin with A also have a fair chance. It's a mess. On any other day of the year, I would pass this race.
DISTAFF
This is another pass. Anything can happen, and after the fact, we will say, "I shoulda had him, look at his pps!" I see eight horses with a chance. Thomas has as good an argument as any, with Spun Sugar and the pattern match.
TURF
SCORPION (C+)
Historically, this has been my best BC race. Let's say that there's a 50 percent chance that this Longchamp record holder is still not ready after such a long layoff. I'm willing to speculate that if the other 50 percent is true and he is ready to peak, then he can defeat Hurricane Run. The usual American suspects always seem to come up short in The Turf. Red Rocks has a chance to get in the picture, but the horses he faced in his last two were not as good as the ones that Scorpion and Hurricane are used to facing. Rail Link was less mature when he defeated Red Rocks by 2. Scorpion is picked by Mike Welsh, the workout man, so perhaps Welsh has seen something. Also picked by Vince Hansen, and a C&X reader, Don, has done research on the informed minority, and found that Hansen had a flat-bet profit. But SCORPION is not an IM horse here.
CLASSIC
DAVID JUNIOR (B-)
LAWYER RON (D)
and an addition:
SUAVE (D)
I've added Suave because he's the "informed minority" pick of Jim Kachulis, who leads the C&X Breeders' Cup standings for informed minority longshot pickers. I checked Suave and see he's a horse for course, a horse for distance, and Desormeaux's only mount in the BC. He also broke the Arlington Park track record , though it was at the odd distance of 1 3/16. Trainer only 7% in graded stakes.
Naturally, I could get egg in my face if Bernardini takes 'em wire to wire, and Invasor is no slouch either. Check if my recollection is true; I don't believe any DRF handicapper has picked David Junior. If so, that would make three horses I'm speculating on that no one has picked. It could be a long day for me, but I'm always willing to take a drubbing in situations where one single winner can bring me over the top.
My knock on DJ is that the trainer has proudly said [paraphrasing] "why should I work him out on dirt? He'll either like it or he won't." Huh?
As you can see from my letter ratings, I will have used 40 percent of my bankroll on bets involving SATWA QUEEN. Beyond Satwa, I have no grand illusions, except that win or lose, I plan to have fun.
You should, too, which means that if you thin-slice it differently from me, or your partners, or the DRF handicappers, and if you have reasonable insight and logic, then you should follow your own persuasions. That's what Dr. Billy M will do when he plays Lawyer Ron.
Mark

This is Friday and I will post twice today.
This is posting 1 of two.
DOUBTING THOMAS?
Longtime C&X reader Thomas D sent an e-mail which I would have preferred to copy word-by-word, but somehow, stuff I get in AOL does not copy. In any case, in the wide-open Distaff, Thomas tells us to not overlook the pattern match on Spun Sugar: won three straight races second after layoff, and this is also second after a layoff. Furthermore, explains TD, Spun Sugar was going against the Polytrack bias in her last race.
I don't have any wisdom beyond what Thomas has said. He was concerned because JR is not aboard, but last two wins were with Luzzi.
If I do play a Pick 3 around this race, I will only use horses that C&X readers suggest. So thus far I have a single.
MONEY MANAGEMENT
As you noticed, I ranked the value of my insights, also based on whether these horses were going against legit or vulnerable favorites, and whether I could eliminate half the field. The only insight that I value as high-grade is that of SATWA QUEEN, so I plan to have at least 1/3 of my entire BC investment in that one race, with SQ every which way.
BIZARRE ANGLE: HORSE FOR COURSE?
PEGASUS WIND
In the Juvy, a race for which I have a poor record, Circular Quay is the apparent horse for course, and possibly the favorite. However, the 15Sep CD workout of PEGASUS WIND 46.2 breezing, best of 70, is faster as an adjusted fraction than Circular Quay's CD race fractions: 46.3plus and 46.1. PEGASUS came up with a second bullet. Lukas has won the Juvenile twice at Churchill and the Juvy Fillies twice at Churchill. Lukas's huge Distaff win in 2000 with Spain was also at Churchill. Furthermore, PEGASUS WIND seems to get better with added distance. He was 4 1/2 behind Scat Daddy at 7f and more recently only 1 1/4 behind Scat Daddy at a mile. There might not be a whole lot of honest speed up there.
I'll be back for more punishment later this afternoon or evening.
Mark