Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Stakes Weekend: Preliminary Derby thoughts
You can all see the Derby preps, commentaries and workout reports on
the DRF website. I tried to watch the preps all in one sitting so as
to not favor one or the other.
No one can deny that I WANT REVENGE looked extraordinary in the Wood
Memorial, in overcoming a horrendous start and bad traffic in the
stretch. The jockey tells us he only really ran the last eighth.
However, do not forget that his odds in the Wood were 1-2, which means
that the field was not a legit Grade 1.
We have a similar dilemma for PIONEER OF THE NILE. I am not worried
about how he’ll run on real dirt, since his works have been fine.
However, he was only 4-5 in the SA Derby, a race that used to be a top
prep but which, in recent years, has produced only Derby duds. In the
same race, CHOCOLATE CANDY was probably prejudiced by a slow pace.
Again, this was not a stellar field.
Other Derby prep winners have not turned in good-looking works. Yes
FRIESAN FIRE (LA Derby winner) worked fast, but that type of work is
normal for the trainer, and after the work, the horse was not able to
gallop out. MUSKET MAN (Illinois and Tampa Bay Derbies) was said to
have “labored” in his work and this was the same verb for the work of
PAPA CLEM (Arkansas Derby).
GENERAL QUARTERS won the Blue Grass, and yet Mr. Coa got off that one
to take Musket Man. If you don’t have a wager on the Derby, you can
root for General Quarters, which would be a great gift for the whole
racing industry. Root for the small stable.
But there is a big stable, in fact a huge one: that has always struck
out in the Kentucky Derby and may have a chance this time. I am
referring to the Godolphin pair, DESERT PARTY and REGAL RANSOM.
If we are looking for a secondary factor to trump the others, then we
must consider DESERT PARTY. Yes, he comes from the UAE Derby which has
never produced a valid Kentucky Derby contender. However, his sire,
Street Cry, has produced none other than Derby winner Street Sense and
Zenyatta.
DESERT PARTY earned a “work of the day” designation at Churchill,
getting the best final quarter of the day, with no urging.
We cannot punish PIONEER OF THE NILE and I WANT REVENGE for not having
good horses to run against in their prep wins, and both have good
reasons to win, based on their records, their trainers and riders, and
the way they have looked. But it all depends on how you value these
horses in the odds department, because they will be well bet.
Those are my initial Derby thoughts. Accompanying the Kentucky Derby
will be a new C&X feature in which a reader, in this case, Ken, will
send me what he deems as a problem race, putting me with my back to
the wall and forcing me to take a handicapping test. This is something
we all might learn from. If it proves interesting, then we can
continue the feature and each time, a different reader can send me
“problem race”.MC