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Mark Cramer's C & X Report for the HandicappingEdge.Com.
Friday, October 03, 2008
Stakes Weekend: Oct 4 and 5
The Big One is the Arc on Sunday, so please read my post on Saturday.
In the meantime, you can watch the prep race of Arc favorite, the
filly Zarkava, just by going to Youtube and typing in Prix Vermeille
Zarkava. The filly that fails to get out of the gate and spots the
field between 8 and 10 lengths is the one you will be thrilled to see
in the stretch. It's the Aga Khan again. He is the world's best
breeder. This fave is legit. More to come on Saturday.
SHADWELL TURF MILE
I'll go literally out on the limb by suggesting that the 12 has a
chance a decent odds. Referring to RAHY'S ATTORNEY, who will also deal
with the fact that she's leaving Canada for the first time.
However, she is 4 for 4 at the distance and 6 for 9 on grass. The
trainer is profitable within numerous specialties. The horse is an
overachiever, having won at 12-1, 16-1 and 8-1.
The favorite looks legit and will be a "thorny" adversary, and there
are other worthy contenders. It's a tight fit, but this is the
overachiever.
WOODBINE INTERNATIONAL
This race is much deeper than it seems. Dr. Dino is the favorite and
fires every time, but his recent wins have come against hangers and I
feel he has a better chance to finish second, so if you like a few
horses here you might use them on top of Dr. Dino.
Of the many angles in this race, the one I like the best is with LUCARNO.
(1) He is an "early" type so has often been against the Euro bias.
(2) What you don't see in the pps is that he was up against rabbits in
a couple of his recent losing races, including when he got beat by Dr.
Dino.
(3) Lucarno has been facing some of the best in Europe, several of
which will be in the Arc de Triomphe. He has had the lead in the
stretch versus some of these, before dropping back.
(4) Finally, he seems to be an all-or-nothing horse, winning or off
the board, suggesting that he has been a sometimes bleeder. Thus,
first-time lasix is a significant piece of info. Gosden was once
unbeatable with these dynamics in play.
Do I sound like Lucarno's Attorney?
Mark