Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Dave,
I'm resending this third post, in case you did not receive it. My
computer cut off when I sent it.
MARK

Here's my suggested 10 cent superfecta box for the Prix de l'Opera,
which some of you will get simulcast.
YOU'RE SO THRILLING. After a year layoff and stretching out two
furlongs in first route, this filly finished only a length and a
quarter behind the seasoned favorite LUSH LASHES. Murtagh had the
choice of the two O'Brien horses and chose this one. Perplexing, so
why not use this one?
The other half of the entry, MOONSTONE, has once defeated LUSH LASHES
and is comparable classwise to that one.
LUSH LASHES is an obvious contender, in both class and consistency.and
deserves to be the favorite. TOP TOSS has finished second to one of
the best fillies in the world, Goldlikova. LIGHT GREEN has been racing
against the boys for a long time, finishing third to two Arc de
Triomphe horses.

And, please remember that I am providing information and analysis but
not touting. It's your job to sort out my arguments and choose the
ones you like best. For example, if you like my argument on Youmzain,
then go for it, even if he's not my top pick. Youmzain, Schiaparelli
and Kamsin will move up on a wet track. Forcast is for rain, but not a
whole lot of it. Hope not because I have to go by bike, since getting
out of there is impossible in any form of motorized vehicle, except
helicopter.
mc

THE CLASSIEST RACE IN THE WORLD:
How can we choose among seven or eight horses that could all be qualified as the best in the world?
I will begin with the least probable among my top 8 and then work my way to the most-likely winner, preferring contenders with higher odds when all else is equal.
GETAWAY. He was an opportunistic fourth in last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. This year again he has shown that other horses are better. But some of those better horses may weaken after fighting it out, and if they do, Getaway can finish in the money. All 7 of André Fabre’s Arc winners were 3-year olds. This one is 5.
YOUMZAIN, another 5-year old. In the last five decades, only three 5-year olds have won this race. Like Getaway, Youmzain ran an opportunistic race in last year’s version, finishing a splendid second. In his last three encounters with Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain his finished ahead twice. But Soldier of Fortune needs space between his races, and the one time the Soldier had his time off, he defeated Youmzain. Please note: if the rains come, Youmzain moves up.
VISION D’ETAT. This horse is undefeated and has won prestigious races. “But this time,” his trainer says, “the situation changes, since he will meet his elders.” He mentions opposition such as Duke of Marmalade, Zarkava and Youmzain, “and if we can finish right behind them,” he adds, “that would already be fine.” Is the trainer simply a realist, or is he purposely understating? Vision d’Etat’s Prix Niel victory was one second and 4/10 slower than Zarkava’s win the same day in the Prix Vermeille, and Zarkava lost 20 meters at the start.
The next 4 contenders have about the same probabilities, but I will favor the ones with the higher odds.
DUKE OF MARMALADE. He is a perfect Group 1 horse this year, 5 for 5, and rider Murtagh (with an amazing 33% victories in France) has chosen the Duke over his stable mate Soldier of Fortune. He deserves to be labeled the “second most-likely winner”. But he prefers good ground and the forecast is for rains, plus he has a less favorable 14 post position.
SOLDIER OF FORTUNE. Yes, Murtagh did not choose him but when Heffernan rode him in the 2007 Irish Derby, he won by an unbelievable 9 lengths, by far his biggest margin of victory. This time he has the needed layoff, which he did not have when losing to Youmzain by _ nor when he was a troubled fifth in last year’s Arc. He has multiple wins at Longchamp. Heffernan rode him more patiently in the Irish Derby which will be needed to win this race.
SCHIAPARELLI. Do not be fooled by the fact that Schiaparelli was beaten by a narrow margin in the Prix Foy by Zambezi Sun, a horse that usually hangs. Schiaparelli was returning after an 11 month layoff, and it was strictly a prep race for the Arc. He looked great, and Dettori is back on him (though how is it possible for Dettori to ride Doctor Dino in Canada and then arrive with a 10-hour jet-lag to guide Schiaparelli?) Some rain will help his chances.
KAMSIN. Five wins in 7 starts, this 3-year old has defeated two of the older horses entered in this race: Papal Bull, who had nearly pulled off an upset against Duke of Marmalade, and the 7-for-10 It’s Gino, who lost by seven lengths to Kamsin. Trainer Schiergen has won 18 percent of his races in France, but the young rider Johan Victoire lacks experience at this level. Enjoys a wet track.
ZARKAVA. The Aga Khan is trying to pull off what has not been done since 1982: win the Arc with a 3-year old filly. But it was he who did it in Akiyda back then, and he can do it again with the powerful trainer-jockey combination of Royer Dupré and Christophe Soumillon. As mentioned, Zarkava’s win in the Vermeille was nearly a second and a half faster than the boys in the Prix Niel, and Zarkava spotted the field what seemed like 10 lengths at the outset because of a poor start. Favorites have won nearly 40% in this race.