Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Hello dear colleagues,
At this moment I'll post my feelings on the SA Derby and then get back later with the Wood.
The question is, of course, can someone get by the projected lone front runner and course specialist Brother Derek. As usually we find ourself in that unenvious position of facing a legit fave that everyone knows about, and coming from a good stable, who has also looked sharp in the morning.
But I'm tired of being sensible. I've been listening to Coltrane and feel in a retro mode. So let's compare the Santa Catalina (Bro Derek's race) with the San Felipe, which has provided us with AP Warrior and Point Determined. I said "retro", so let's use the DRF track variant. The variant was a fast 6 on Bro Derek's day and it was 19 on the day of AP Warrior and Point Determined.
If you like Bro Derek then you also have to consider Sacred Light, who could catch the Bro. Sacred Light has never really passed the finish line in front of every horse, coming up short to the Bro does not tell us that the SA Derby favorite should be accepted at 4/5.
So I am deciding to use the San Felipe as the race that could produce the winner of the SA Derby, knowing all along that the fave could walk away with it.
In that San Felipe, Point Determined got the jump on AP, then lapsed back in traffic, and came on again. You might call it either a troubled race or a 2-move race. The uncertainty here is which of these two horse, Point Determined or AP Warrior is most likely to improve.
Let's look at this as a prep for the Derby. Conceivably, AP Warrior could come up short against a lone F over a speed favoring track and still be a possibility to win the Kentucky Derby, where the pace will be stiffer.
Point Determined, on the other hand, only a half length behind AP in their encounter, now has a chance to run a more mature race as a possible lone presser. Point Determined's daddy won this race and PD figures to have the better position of the two.
Bro Derek is in the stall next to Wildfang. That's like being next to my ex-wife. PD is on the outside, where he can be relaxed before the gate opens and after as well.
So, I shall give an edge to Point Determined and make him the key horse, provided that the odds are pretty much similar between PD and AP. If AP's odds are clearly higher than PD's, then AP can be used as well.
I think Baffert is well aware that he's got a presser and not a dueler. If his horse duels, then that would make it easier for both AP Warrior and Sacred Light.
So, my key against a legit fave, is Point Determined, but I reserve the right to use AP Warrior as well if his odds are clearly higher than PD's. If PD finishes second to either the fave or AP Warrior I will at least get my money back.
Remember, this is my analysis, not yours. Dr. Billy M was smart enough to know this when he chose his own analysis over mine in last year's Kentucky Derby.
mc