Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Race choice Courtesy of Dr. Billy M:
From Mark
Canterbury, Race 4 (16 May 09)

Eight horses.
Elimination 1: Awesome Shine. This race if clmg 5,000 for non-winners
2009. Awesome Shrine gets eliminated as the horse with the most losses
in 2009: (nine). The conditions favor those that have lost the least
races in 2009, including horses in their first start in 2009 if their
2008 was not bad. Lost to lesser two races back.
Elimination 2: Top Authority: 7% trainer/6% rider plus two straight
losses at a lower level. This would be a “quality elimination” on
those two factors, but the horse does like Cby and the low% trainer
has popped 3rd after layoff, so though not a contender, the horse has
more than a zero percent chance.
Elimination 3: Gin Stinger, 3% rider/no-win trainer plus two losses at
below this level make this one another “quality elimination” and the
outside post seals the deal.
Elimination 4: Mucho Sal, with a string of losses at roughly today’s
level and a trainer whose win percentage is below 10% in three
specialty categories: shipper (9%), Lay-2 (6%) and sprint-to-route
(3%), plus a no-move merry-go-round race in his prep.
CONTENDERS, so far:
AFERDS CODE RED: win type (14 6-1-2), trainer profitable in 90+ days
away, and the horse won before after almost identical layoff, making
this a pattern match. Trainer also profitable with shippers (small
sample). Rider, 15%, and horse has coveted rail, which is favored at
this distance. Even though the horse comes from sub-prime tracks, he
seems to have a slight class advantage. This is a very competent
trainer who may be under the radar at Cby. The previous lay-1 win of
this horse was with the same trainer.
CALEB BOY: win type at Canterbury (18 4-2-3). The lay-1 is a huge
question mark, since, with no stat on trainer and the horse having
failed at lay-1 before. However, the works are steady.
TYTUS: Win type (24 8-5-1) plus 1-for-1 at Cby. Has high% but low roi
trainer. Warning sign: BEATEN FAVORITE AT ODDS ON THREE CONSECUTIVE
RACES.
CHASM: Win type at this track (12 5-2-2) and at this distance (13
5-2-0) BUT HAS LONG LAYOFF AND SWITCHES TO LOW% RIDER. Last time he
had a similar lay-1 comeback race, he finished third at 6-1. This
horse is coming from open-conditions races so in essence the last time
he raced at this level, he won, and it was at this track, as the
favorite, with recency.
Regarding Preakness, looking long at Musket Man, better than looked
Derby, trainer pops in Stakes, horse is as consistent as they come ...
along with the legit fave Rachel Alexandra(because the Derby horses
are coming from a lesser-of-evils Derby).