Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Breeders' Cup: Report 2
Well, folks, this is still a preliminary commentary. At the moment I
have one strong feeling.
THE MILE
Goldikova, in the mile. She must defeat the winner of last year's mile
plus many others. Here's my opening argument, lawyerly, I hope;
Her two losses are to the female manhunter, Zarkova, only by 2 lengths
at this distance. Contrary to the O'Brien horses, who are coming back
in 20 days, this one preferred to skip an easy win in the Prix de
l'Opera, to have more rest for the BC Mile.
The Head stable is the hottest in Europe (O'Brien had more horses and
more races, but Head's percentage of stakes wins is astounding).
In the classy Prix de Moulin, this filly defeated a great field,
including males Paco Boy, who went on to defeat a tough field on Arc
weekend and Henry the Navigator, who is entered in the Classic.
THE CLASSIC
What do you do about the Superhorse Curlin? So what if he's not raced
on the synth. The two O'brien horses are both coming back after 20
days and possibly tailing off, and they too are trying a new surface.
I told you I was intrigued by Raven's Pass, but only because the
trainer once upon a time owned this race track. Things have changed
and RP probably would have been caught by Henry the N at a longer
distance.
For me the most likely to defeat the Superhorse is Casino Drive. Had
prep on SA synth, undefeated, and we just do not know what the
potential of this horse is, though the pedigree says he can get better
and the trainer knows what he's doing.
THE LADIES CLASSIC
I have watched and rewatched all of Zenyatta's races. Everyone will be
singling this filly, so if you can beat her you get a huge payoff edge
in any serial bet. Cocoa Beach has defeated Ginger Punch and has a
57.4 work on the synth. Some chance here.
However, for me the most likely to upset is the lover of synth
surfaces, Carriage Trail. Zenyatta defeated Model by a length (though
it looked e-a-s-y). But Carriage Trail has defeated the same gal by
nearly 8 lengths.
Zenyatta is clearly the most likely winner. The two question marks are
getting her off the rail and especially the very slow pace. Checking
the Moss pace figs, even the apparent early horses have slow early
figs. That means that the normally back-of-pack Zenyatta will be in
back of a slow pace.
Still Zenyatta's trainer makes no mistakes: 23% wins on synth and 33%
wins in graded stakes.
In a pick 3, I would use Carriage Trail and Zenyatta on the notion
that there is zero value in singling Zenyatta.
That's it for now. I have a lot of reflecting to do.
Remember that the thrill of BC or even a lowly claiming race, is that
you, the handicapper, are making your own decisions. I try to present
some info and objective arguments. You flesh it out with your own
wisdom, and do what moves you.
mc

BC PRELIMINARY REPORT:
FOREIGN HORSES AND OTHER QUESTIONS
1. The Informed Minority
In last year's BC, the informed minority finally flopped, after years
of success. Has the bubble burst or are we "due"?
Last year's DRF handicappers' grid included more handicappers than
ever: perhaps too many. The dynamics of the grid may have changed.
With so many public pickers, even horses picked by two handicappers
could be the equivalent of horses picked by a "lone wolf" in the past.
Also, with so many new races, even last year, the public handicappers
were assaulted by the time factor. Usually the BC picks of an informed
minority represented intense inspiration. Now, with so many races, it
could mean simply winging it because there's not enough time to sink
into so many events.
So, nothing but question marks at this time.
2. Foreign Horses
Aidan O'Brien has two in the Classic. Duke of Marmalade flopped in the
Arc where his forward style was not the right way to go. He may be
better suited to the American pace. But has he been to the well too
often. Henry the Navigator seems a tad below the Duke, but I need to
wait for more info.
The intriguing horse in the Classic is Gosden's Raven's Pass, if only
because Gosden is returning to the scene where he was once the
dominant trainer, especially with foreign horses. Gosden, however, has
a very poor record shipping to big US races nowadays.
In the Turf, Soldier of Fortune is another horse capable of running
early or midpack and may be suited to US pace. This horse is fresher
than Duke of Marmalade.
For the BC Mile we have Goldlikova, a dominant competitor from the
Head stable. This stable was on fire all summer and fall, but does not
have a good record shipping to America. Goldlikova is the best shipper
to the USA they have ever had.
Those are the ones that seem to stand out.
We'll finish with a quote from Gosden:
"I imagine that for observers it has been a surprise that we have
opted for the Classic at a mile and a quarter, and not for the Mile.
But I have always said that the mile at Santa Anita, with its two
turns, is a lottery. ...Raven's Pass's pedigree shows us that he will
stay beyond the mile. That's why we are confident."
Best bets so far: Soldier of Fortune and Goldlikova.
You will be able to see most of the races of the foreign horses on Youtube.
MC