Mark Cramer
C & X Report

ps
from Don:
Sharp Humor gets 3 pts. debut win 1 point for romans who is currently at 18% for the year 2 points for jock/trnr not winning. Not having the informed majority stat I can add 2 points for that which gives him 8 points 0 BW's. Deputy Glitters gets 3 points debut win 3 points for the trainer 2 points for jock/trnr not winning 0 pts. for 1 BW in mcl debut win total 8 points. That's the best I can give you as I understand it. I am bothered a bit by Pvt. Vow. I gave him 1.5 pts. for 2ts win 3 points for the trainer 2 points for trnr/jock not winning and 2 points for 3 BW's, which totals 8.5 points. don

My comment:
This point system is entirely theoretical, based on a composite of C&X research. It's not intended to replace handicapping. C&X readers see the rules for the points. It's up to you readers to interpret which rules you feel are most relevant. The function of this so-called system is to call our attention to horses we may not have considered. From then, we do some handicapping. So any of the horses with a high amount of points deserves a re-look, including PV. In the end, among the point getters, I saw the most redeeming characteristics in the horses I mentioned. So please do not make this an automatic bet system. Use it as part of the handicapping puzzle.
Good luck.
mc

Ok, folks, here are a few more details. If I decide to post again it will appear tomorrow. First of all, with 14 horses having a chance, including horses I have not mentioned, such as AP Warrior, Showing Up, etc., I feel that if I have horses at high odds, I should be able to have win money on them, and also win-place-show in the case of Deputy Glitters. Then I'll think about exactas, and maybe tris.
(1) The informed minority. One DRF handicapper, among 17, has picked SHARP HUMOR on top. That was Marty McGee. I think he's from Kentucky, and I think he knows Dale Romans. Sharp Humor was stretching out to 1 1/8 for first time when facing Barbaro, and looked better in defeat than Barbaro did in victory. I project SHARP HUMOR to improve more than BARBARO, but SH is yet another speed horse in this field.
(2) The theoretical "system", based on C&X contrarian longshot research, comes up with the following horses based on points:
DEPUTY GLITTER, 9 pts
SHARP HUMOR, 9 pts
SINISTER MINISTER, 8.5 pts
also, there are Keyed Entry and Seaside Retreat with 8 points, and Sweetnorthernsaint with 7.5
Reread the rules and you'll see that this is a contrarian method.
Given the expected lower odds of Barbaro along with the above info, I've decided to use Sharp Humor at least as much as Barbaro.
(3) The Pace. With Sharp Humor adding yet more speed, and programmed to go for the lead, the duel that everyone predicts may actually happen. I've probably got too many speed horses in the mix.
(4) Priorities:
I've decided, thus, to key SWEETNORTHERNSAINT, even though this horse has ended up as the wiseguy pick among DRF handicappers, because he can have the late energy that's needed. I've also decided to make sure I have DEPUTY GLITTERS in various combinations, but not all of them, of course. Then, in order of preference, I've got SINISTER MINISTER and SHARP HUMOR. BARBARO will stay in my horses to use as long as his odds are high enough, but he's gotta be more than 5-1. The deeper you go in exotics, tri or super, the more likely horses like Barbaro, Point Determined, AP Warrior (another DRF wiseguy pick), Jazil, and Bob and John can enter into the winning combination, and I just don't have a clear vision yet for tris. That usually happens close to post time.
So that's about it. I'm gonna sleep on it, and if I have a vision, I'll post again.
Mark
PS. Binaries.
Sharp Humor vs. Barbaro. The odds are much higher on Sharp Humor but the pace favors Barbaro. The tiebreaker is that Sharp Humor has more reason to continue improving and his a high% trainer.
AP Warrior vs. Point Determined. PD had a slightly better closing time and always fires, though he's a plodder. The odds differential seems to favor PD, but check the board.

Dear friends and heroes,
This is NOT the final post, so check in again, either later today or tomorrow morning. The race looks interesting because there are two low-odds horses who are beatable. Brother Derek may not know what hit him when he gets into a big field. Those lone front runners in 5-horse fields at SA do not do well in the Kentucky Derby. In the case of Lawyer Ron, I sense that he beat lesser horses, and his come-home time is not as quick as we'd need.
Barbaro is the other possible low-odds horse, but this one cannot be badmouthed. He's raced and won in fields of 11, 12, 12, 13, and 11. I believe that the horse he beat is better than the ones that Lawyer Ron defeated. So I've marked BARBARO.
For a most-likely winner, I am tossed between two horses, and I'll simply state the objective arguments, not necessarily in my order of preference.
SINISTER MINISTER. (1) He's got two Big Wins, suggesting that if he survives the early pace and does not bounce, he is capable of dominating. (2) Andrew Beyer is picking against SM, and when Beyer goes against the highest Beyer-fig horse, that horse wins the Derby (in the case of that Lukas horse and War Emblem). (3) Group think seems to have gotten into everyone's mind: that there will be a wicked speed duel. In such cases, there is always the possibility that the speed-of-the-speed converts the others into chasers rather than duelers. I am concerned about Patrick Valenzuela on Keyed Entry. (It seems as if the longer the race, the less Keyed Entry thrives, but still, he can make it uncomfortable for SM.)
SWEETNORTHERNSAINT. (1) He's got four Big Wins (one dqed), giving him a chance to dominate as well. He was in the 10-hole and 3-wide on both turns when getting edged out by Keyed Entry, but in that race, Sweetnorthernsaint was not near his peak. (2) His last three races were 10-horse fields, so he should be able to handle a crowd. (3) He also has the fastest closing eight fraction of any horse in this field: 12.1. Yes, the horse he beat in the Illinois Derby did not run well next time out, but look at the margin of victory and the time of the race.
DEPUTY GLITTERS. No one is even mentioning this horse. They look at his Wood disaster and toss him. Well, as you know, yours truly handicapped the Wood successfully, and all along in my posts, I mentioned that they planned to scratch DG if the track came up wet. Problem was, the rains came down in torrents well after he was entered, and somehow they did not scratch him. Draw a line through that race. It's the same as his other sloppy race. Naturally, if the track comes up sloppy for the Derby, I would not use this horse.
In his previous race, he defeated Bluegrass Cat, who came back to be the fave in the Bluegrass, and then ran a clunker. Deputy Glitters won as a debut horse, a factor I like, and I am especially intrigued by the high-percentage Albertini-Lezcano combination. This is my longshot inclusion.
There are 9 other horses that I give a chance to win, but we are thin-slicing it here, and I will not act as a lawyer for those other horses. I'm scared of Point Determined, and scared of Jazil and Bob and John if the track comes up sloppy. If the speed does cave in, then Jazil could make it into the exotics, and even win. The trainer is to be feared.
I still do not have the DRF grid of handicappers to finish calculating the "system" horse, but Keyed Entry, Sinister Minister or Deputy Glitters may come out on top. Whichever horse comes out on top of that entirely separate system will deserve a side win bet (for me).
I'll be back for another post. Too bad some of our great C&X handicappers will probably send me some insights after it's too late to post them.
This is fun for the moment, because after the Wood Memorial, I won't be in your doghouse for awhile.
Mark