Mark Cramer
C & X Report

PREAKNESS
Here we go again. Tough to squeeze something out of this race because the fave is legit, the second fave is a legit second fave, and by the process of elimination, the lightly-raced BERNARDINI looks like the longshot exotic inclusion, but it seems as if we're not the only ones who see it that way.
BARBARO got a "big win" from the Derby and is fresh. There is no reason to dislike him, and the only argument of the negative spin doctors is that Barbaro's coming back in only 2 weeks, whereas his previous races, all wins, were spaced out with layoffs.
BROTHER DEREK could be worth an action win bet if the odds differential is big enough between BD and Barbaro. My view is that, for Brother Derek, the Kentucky Derby was a prep race for the Preakness. In the Derby, impossibly wide, taking up, and in an outside post where he could not exert his usual control, he learned to pass horses, and did so while losing a shoe.
After studying Like Now, Greeley's Legacy and Sweetnorthernsaint's common race, the Gotham, I've decided that the Gotham was probably a negative key race. Most of the actors from that race came back to run a significantly slower Beyer fig.
Platinum Couple has a less-than-10 percent trainer-rider combo. Toss. Hemingway's Key needs to improve too much and needs to do so against legit faves. Out. Diabolical defeated only 4 horses (not his fault for small field) in an allowance nw1. I can't get hot for Diabolical.
Of the three Gotham horses, I suppose LIKE NOW has the most right to move up since he won that race against the bias, and has a big trainer. However, he came back to a relative uninteresting performance. Sweetnorthernsaint would not be a total surprise if he runs back to one of his domineering races, but his relatively low odds don't seem to warrant the risk. BROTHER DEREK had much more trouble in the Derby than SNS.
My knock on BERNARDINO is that he could really be preparing for the Belmont. His pedigree says he can run all day. But this is a plus on his stretchout for the Preakness. His trainer, Albertini, is both a high percentage stakes winner and a flat-bet profit trainer.
On this C&X website, yours truly has called the Preakness exacta the last two years, and I will use a similar strategy this year. (I can't remember ever having 3 in a row in any Triple Crown race.) We had recommended exotic inclusions. In 2005, Scrappy T was an exotic inclusion on this website and he finished second at 13-1. In 2004, Rock Hard Ten was the key, and he finished place at 6-1.
This year, BERNARDINI is the exotic inclusion. He's fourth fave on the ML. He's bred to improve with distance, and his trainer is one to back with 31% wins in stakes. The pace could do him in but I suspect that the pace may not be so fast, as everyone's saying their horse does not need the lead. BROTHER DEREK should have a much better scenario, and if the gap between his odds and those of BARBARO is big enough, he can be worth some win money. Barbaro remains a legit favorite.
I won't be near my e-mail this eve but in case I check and someone has an interesting angle, I'll post tomorrow. Today I'm treating myself well. I went to the races this afternoon and nothing will ever compare with the live product, and I'm having a beer with a friend at a neighborhood bar, trying to be less electronic for awhile.
Cheers,
Mark