Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Belmont II
Here's a post from Dr. Billy.
Remember that my main post came just before this one.
mc
Hi Mark,
A new approach I learned from reading "Signers" is tolook for a trainer who has more than one entry on a card, and to figure if he wins 20-30% of his races,that he logically won't win more than one race thatday. The idea of singling each entry in separate pick3's allows for diversification. This was a new idea to me, as I, who follows David Fawkes, would always hope that 2 of his entries were in adjacent races so Icould bet Fawkes-Fawkes-ALL. My records indicate that this has been unproductive, and I have found Susan's Signers approach more realistic. So to apply this approach to the Belmont, Zito is 0 for 8 in the first two legs. You can't keep a good man down that long. I am boxing four horses in the exacta, tri and super: Zito's 3 plus Giacomo. I am leaving out Alex since it wouldn't pay enough and I think he is prone to a pattern of good race-bad race and could be due for a bad race. Looking forward to other postings.
Bill

BELMONT STAKES
This is the main posting. I may add to this, so be sure to check later. Reader posts will also be added. I am reading this before I see any public handicapper comments, or hear the hype.
Complexion of the race
Both the Derby and the Preakness were clogged with early speed horses, the Derby more than the Preakness. The Belmont is the inverse, consverse and every other verse. As often happens in the Belmont, trainers of early speed horses stay away, and trainers of plodders show up, thinking the added distance will give their horse a chance. That leaves a special chance for a good early pace horse. As you know, I like early speed in marathons for precisely this reason.
I still believe that AFLEET ALEX is a most-likely winner, especially because of his training style. In any other sport, athletes get out there and train. In horse racing, horses are largely convined to their stables, or to walking machines. AFLEET ALEX gets out there and gallops and jogs. That's why he has been one of the very few leading 2yos who has been able to come back as a three and become a champion.
However, he is one of seven horses in this field, including GIACOMO, who get zero Quirin speed points. Another of the entrants, A.P. Arrow, won at a mile and a quarter in his maiden victory, wire to wire, BUT that was in the slop, the pace was slow, and he was bred to adore the slop.
Then there's Pinpoint. His last win, on Preakness day, was in fractions of 49 and 113 for the mile and sixteenth. The same-day Preakness was run in 46 and 110.3. If these fractions are placed side by side, it would mean that Pinpoint would have been four lengths behind the late runner Giacomo.
One horse that cannot be completely eliminated because he stays relatively near the pace, is Southern Africa, but he's pretty much equivalent to Sort It Out, who was not up to the level of Triple Crown horses.
That leaves the true early speed horse: REVERBERATE. I have 5 reasons, partly related to each other, for liking this horse as a KEY.
1. He figures to control the pace, getting the jump on Giacomo and Alex, though those two may be capable of changing their ways to some extent.
2. REVERBERATE is a Belmont horse for course.
3. He is stabled at Belmont. Independent of the "horse for course" factor, horses stabled at Belmont tend to overachieve in the Belmont Stakes.
4. In his previous races, he has never had the luxury of controling the pace. He's been in duels every time. Here he has a chance to be loose and easy, or at least, unforced early.
5. Trainer Russo knows the Belmont Stakes, having been assistant trainer for Colonial Affair when that one won with Julie Krone at a huge price. Colonial Affair also came to the Belmont Stakes by way of the Peter Pan.
REVERBERATE did not give up after the duel in his last, even though he finished second. He was 6 lengths better than the rest of the field.
Looking for the most value to key, I feel REVERBERATE has the best chance against the two favorites.
In awhile, I'll send Dr. Billy's post, wait to hear from you, and then send a final sum-up message if it's at all necessary.
Mark