Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Ok, here we go with the first post.
(1) Initial feel. I'm looking hard at the early horse, Sinister Minister, since so many wiseguys are saying there will be a pace duel. SM could be the kind of speed horse that converts all the other speed horses into followers. Are the others need-to-lead horses? That's the question. If so, they become followers. I'm looking long at Deputy Glitter as a possible longshot inclusion. They said they would scratch him from the Wood if the track came up wet, they entered him when it looked dry, and then it poured and he stayed in the race. Throw out that race. I like the high % trainer. I like the fact that DG won as a first-time starter.
(2) Angle. Since Sea Hero, every Derby winner finished his prep in less than 13 seconds, including Giacomo. Except for Silver Charm's 13 flat off fast early fractions. This year's qualifiers are: Sweetnorthernsaint, 12.1; Point Determined, 12.3. Barbara, 12.4; Jazil, 12.4, and Brother Derek, 12.4. I'm tossing Bro Derek on the Snow Chief theory, the early speed winner of the SA Derby gets beat by a horse behind him in the SA Derby. I prefer Point Determined over Derek, whose outside of all that speed.
(3) Just for fun, I reprint a system I made for American Turf Monthly. You guys figure the points and get back to me and tell me which horse qualifies. I've got to work on other things first. My aol is down, so if you need to communicate with me, it's at cramerjazz@gmail.com
Ok, here's the Derby point system and the logic behind it. I'll sign of for today, and do another post tomorrow. I may decide to do extra posts at any time I discover anything. In theory there should be one more post, that on Friday. But I can post again today, twice on Friday or once on Saturday, depending on the muse. At least I'm not in your doghouse, having squeezed a $72 exacta out of the Wood Memorial.
Non-linear point system
I have decided to derive a Kentucky Derby method based on information that covers thousands of races, rather than data that comes from twenty or thirty editions of a single race. With that in mind, let us proceed with what looks like an old-fashioned point system, until you consider that contrarian and non-linear logic is built in to it. Much of what follows comes from my ongoing series on the search for the automatic bet. I’m taking a risk here, since my success or failure will be judged by the result of a single race.
Rule 1: Horse Futures
Statistically, horses that win their debut race perform with more success later in their careers than those that fail to fire first time out. Next best for a fertile career is a horse that wins its second career race. A large majority of horses that make it to the Breeders’ Cup were early winners. Winning early is the sign of a natural athlete. The future of a horse can be partly projected by its initial outings.
Therefore, we shall give 3 points to a horse that has won its debut race, and 1.5 points to one that was victorious in its second career race.
The concept of horse futures tells us that what a horse does in its first two starts gives us a powerful sign for its short- and long-term career.
Rule 2: Longshot Trainer Edge
The higher a trainer’s win percentage, the greater his share of longshot winners. You’d think that lesser trainers would pay the higher pari-mutuel prices because they would be more likely to be overlooked by the crowd. However, my statistics, validated by independent researchers, show that high percentage trainers have a superior longshot impact value (they get more of their fair share of longshot winners) and higher percentage trainers also yield a superior return on betting investment for their longshot horses.
Therefore, the horse of a trainer with a 20% or better record for the year receives 3 points. A trainer win rate between 18% and 19% gets his horse 2 points. A trainer hit rate between 16% or 17% gives the horse 1 point.
Overwhelming evidence on the power of the supertrainer factor seems not to have dented the opinion of conventional handicappers, who continue to embrace speed, pace, form and class as their primary factors, relegating the trainer variable to secondary status.
Rule 3: the Upsidedown Beyer Rating
This rule may or may or may not produce a qualifying horse. We want the horse with the highest route Beyer rating, but only if the horse shows a serious negative in its past performances. This negative could be (a) horse is a gelding; (b) horse is not bred in Kentucky, Florida or California; (c) horse comes from the Godolphin Stable; (d) horse comes from a lesser prep race (not listed as Grade I); (e) horse has once raced in a claiming race. History has proven that high Beyer ratings are scorned by Beyer bettors themselves when serious negative signs appear.
If a horse qualifies by this rule, he would receive 2 points. The only way there could be more than one qualifier is if two horses tie for the top Beyer rating. A three horse tie for top Beyer figure would nullify rule 3.
Rule 4: the Informed Minority
Within this category we may or may not isolate a qualifying horse. Give 2 points to any horse that is selected by only one handicapper on the Daily Racing Form grid. The informed minority factor has consistently shown a positive return on investment in my own samples and independent validating samples, but of course, these samples are long-term and not deterministic for a single race.
Rule 5: the Parity Factor
Here, we only consider horses that have already received points under both Rule 1 and Rule 2. Such horses do not have to be top point getters in Rules 1 and 2, but must have earned some points within both rules. For the Parity Factor, horses get 1 point if their jockey has never won a Kentucky Derby . Horses get 1 point if their trainer has never won the Derby.
The parity factor becomes dynamic rather than static by requiring its integration with Rules 1 and 2. It also predicts change over continuity. (I am tempted to make a single exception here and allow a point to Patrick Valenzuela, who won a Derby 18 years ago on Sunday Silence. With the exception of Pat Day, every other rider from that period has either retired or died. Including Valenzuela seems to be in keeping with the spirit of the law.)
Rule 6: the Big Win Factor
To win any Grade I stakes race, a horse should show signs of being dominant. The sign we choose here is the Big Win Factor. A horse that has won at least two races by five lengths or more gets 2 points. There are two ways in which a horse can get a single point. A horse that won its most recent race by five lengths or more gets 1 point. A horse that won a previous race at Churchill Downs by five or more lengths gets 1 point. Maximum points: 2.
I have tried to reduce the degree of linear logic in the way I have chosen these factors and the manner in which they are integrated. The maximum number of points is 14, but it will be virtually impossible for any horse to get all 14 points, since some rules actually contradict others.
mc