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Mark Cramer's C & X Report for the HandicappingEdge.Com.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Final odds and ends:
First, after yesterday's races, I have begun to wonder about the
issue, strangely absent from articles this year, of the winter coats
that some Euro horses have already grown before they have arrived in
SoCal.
Second, in the Turf Sprint, I neglected to mention a few things.
Almost every horse in the field has some sort of argument. As usual,
there are rumors about the condition of a Dutrow horse, and in the
past such rumors ended with a Dutrow win (we had two of them in our
C&X commentary). This time it is Salute the Count, who allegedly
missed his workout on Monday. There is a lay-1 pattern match in the
time between the last layoff that led to a turf sprint win, and this
layoff, and he keeps the same rider. This does not change any of my
previous analysis.
Third, in the late double (or pick 3 if you dare), I have two exotic
inclusions. In the Turf, I would include GRAND COUTURIER. At first I
discounted his BIG WIN at BEL because it was on a yielding course.
However, he was off the board in his previous two yielding or soft
turf races. Furthermore, he may still be at a peak, and when theis
horse peaks, he's capable of winning as an overachiever, as he did
versus English Channel on a firm course at 15-1.
And, for the Classic, where I like CHAMPS ELYSEES even better now,
after I saw the way the track was running yesterday, I would add
CASINO DRIVE, a horse that has evidence neither to favor him or to
eliminate him, but who has unknown potential in a field where many of
the horses that are getting action may be on the down escalator.
In retrospect, what I see has happened with this expanded 14 race BC
is that my efforts on the races I really like have been diluted
because of so many others that really are not worthy of getting
involved with. In future events like this I will find a way to discard
certain races quickly so as to remain focused and intense on the
others.
You've hear about the technology bubble and the real estate bubble,
and now we have the real estate bubble. I think they are trying to
extract too much from the racing consumer, but I recognize I could be
entirely wrong and this could lead to a renaissance of racing.
Mark

And:
other mentions in the Turf Sprint, which seems like the most
interesting race of all of them all Problem is, I have angles on
nearly every horse. The latest is on a 9%-trainer's horse, Desert
Code. This horse, on the 6 1/2 downhill, has always been off the pace,
and he was a horse for course. But in the Morvich, following a layoff,
he was gunned into a pace duel, with Gomez. But now he's switching
back to Migliore, who raced him from off the pace.
That just adds another angle to the race, and I am trying to put these
angles in a proper hierarchy, plus dealing with the Euros, which I am
tempted to eliminate altogether and the speed, which looks more
vulnerable in this context.
Well that's it. I'm off.
Mark
Posted by: Mark / 7:53 AM

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