Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Kentucky Derby 2008
Here we compare the preps and sift through info. Another post will
follow on Friday.
As is the custom, we compare DRF speed rating plus variant in the recent preps.
Recapture the Glory 119 Illinois
Z Humor 114 Illinois
Denis of Cork 110 Illinois
Eight Belles 110 as odds on vs. fillies
Big Brown 109 Florida
Gayego 106 Arkansas
Z Fortune 105 Arkansas
Colonel John 104 SA
Smooth Air 104 Florida
Big Truck 104 Tampa
Following these there is a gap of 3 points, which suggests that the
others are slower.
The big question arises: The Illinois Derby has produced the highest
three figs here. Was the time in that race legit? If so, Recapture
would have to be a top choice. However, Z Humor, who got the 114 in
the same race, has finished behind four other Derby horses (in
previous races) and those four (Cool Coal Man, Court Vision, Big Truck
and Smooth Air) are not the best of contenders. To get an idea, Smooth
Air was six lengths behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby.
So the Illinois Derby FIGS get demoted, based on the class of the field.
Next we have the 110 of the filly, and she was odds on in that race,
suggesting that the field was no big deal. I have been sharp in my
handicapping of fillies of late. I feel that if this one stays in, she
will not beat the boys.
On the basis of speed, both the Wood and the Blue Grass also get
demoted. I would love to embrace Tale of Ekati, who pressed in the
Wood in fast fractions, but the slowdown in the last fraction was
considerable, and yet none of the come-from-behinders could pass the
speed. I toss any horse coming from off the pace in this prep. Nor did
the Blue Grass look like an honest race.
That leaves the Fla Derby, the SA Derby and the Arkansas Derby. I feel
that the winner will come from one of these races.
Big Brown's 109 is legit: 6 lengths ahead of Smooth Air, who was 7 ½
ahead of the rest. Two horses who were trounced in the Fla Derby,
Elysium Fields and Fierce Wind, are  superior to the also-rans in the
SA Derby and the Arkansas Derby.
This means that BIG BROWN, even with only 3 races in his career, and
even from post 20, must be considered a legit contender. I've watched
that race 15 times. Big Brown looks like a very mature horse, the way
in the early going he muscled his way from the outside post and
powered through the wide-into-the-turn.
BIG BROWN, however, is now immediately outside of three good breakers.
One of them is GAYEGO. In the Arkansas Derby in the final yards,
Gayego looked like he could keep running for a few more furlongs. I've
compared Gayego's San Felipe, for him a prep following a layoff, to
COLONEL JOHN'S impressive SA Derby win, because they were on the same
SA track.
Gayego, San Felipe: 89 +14 = 103
Colonel John, SA Derby: 94 + 10 = 104
Gayego beat the metronome Bob Black Jack by a length.
Colonel John defeated BBJ by a half length.
This means that GAYEGO, who has already proven he can ship and win,
might be on a par with the lower-odds COLONEL JOHN.
However, CJ's late move at SA looked more like a big truck than the
horse of the same name. Looked strong.
GAYEGO's position inside BIG BROWN, means that BIG BROWN will have to
make early tactical decisions. Z FORTUNE, even though close to GAYEGO
in Arkansas, was clearly a defeated horse with not enough gas in the
tank. His 4 wide on the first turn and a lesser but also wide trip on
the second turn may have taken something out of him, so for the
moment, we retain him. He finished second to Pyro and ahead of
Visionaire in the Risen Star.
This brings us to some tossouts.
Pyro: even his wins this year were not as fast as his 2yo season, and
his no-move effort in his most recent, is further cause for concern.
Looks like child prodigy.
Smooth Air could have been considered a contender, but missing works
due to an infirmity in the last week is the red flag.
Denis of Cork (too far back in Illinois), Court Vision and Anak N
(couldn't catch the big slowdown), Cowboy Cal (slow fractions from
false Blue Grass), Visionaire (clearly outrun by Z Fortune), Big Truck
(suspect Tampa field), Adriano (loses regularly to the most mediocre
horses in this field) and Cool Coal Man (too slow), are eliminations.
Final word on Dutrow. He may have been mistaken in choosing post 20,
not realizing perhaps that there would be speed horses inside of him
in posts 19 and 18.
Dutrow has a right to feel invincible now, given his double success in Dubai.
Stay tuned on Friday.
mark