Mark Cramer
C & X Report

BELMONT STAKES WEEKEND
Post 2
The Belmont Stakes
Dr. Billy M has chided me for having picked the second favorite, as if
I had wimped out. So I went back to the pps and looked long and hard.
If I have missed something, I will not know until after the race.
All of you, look at the pace of this race. Do you see any challenge to
Charitable Man? Only if all the other riders throw the dice on who
commits suicide with their horse so another can come late.
In addition to the previous info on CM, I see that his dad has won the
Belmont. I also see that the best trainer in the race has patiently
targeted his horse for this big moment. I tried hard to make a case
for Dunkirk, but his Florida Derby looks no better than CM’s Peter
Pan, and CM still has a pace advantage. Tried to sell myself on
Chocolate Candy, who suffered from bad karma at the outset of the
Derby and did recover courageously for awhile, but he’s still from the
mediocre SoCal brigade.
Mine That Bird, two great races coming from last place. Can he come
from last place against a paceless field? Would Borel try the
unthinkable and keep him close to the pace, thus risking a hang in the
stretch?
So I repeat, even if Mine and Charitable are co-choices, I prefer the latter.
Dave asked me to do a Problem Race:
THE MANHATTAN
Lots of deep closers here too, at a mile and quarter on the grass,
with outside posts prejudiced because of the early first turn at
Belmont.
Many horses have a reasonable chance:
12 Cowboy Cal 7 4-3-0 on grass, only a head behind Einstein, but way
outside and may have tactical speed to tuck in, and has once been
defeated by inside poster Court Vision.
1 Court Vision, who once defeated Cal, is 1 for 1 Belmont turf and has
top jock. Hung against the Cowboy in last.
5 Gio Ponti, beat Court Vision once, with Clement and Gomez at 26%
6 Wesley, closed a ton of ground against a relatively slow pace in
last, but in this field he finds many deep closers like him.
Castellano, who was aboard Wesley for his last two wins, has chosen
Marsh Side.
3 Marsh Side, Castellano won with him at 29-1 and he is a potential
pop-up horse.
2 Champs Elysees in pictures with Spice Route, who seems like a yardstick here.
11 LAURO once defeated Spice Route in a second-race-following layoff.
Today, LAURO is once again in a Lay-2.
You can watch LAURO’s last race in the Dixie from the outside post 11.
(See Youtube: Dixie Parading). He worked mightly hard to clear and get
the rail, and I remember thinking, well he’s had his prep after a
6-month layoff, so he will eventually fade. In fact, he held on
grudgingly for a close up fourth, and his closing fraction is quite
good for a horse that was hustled so early on.
LAURO has one of the best Euro trainers, Andreas Wohler, from Germany.
Way back in 2006, LAURO defeated the eventual winner of the Arc de
Triomphe, Rail Link. Also defeated a horse we know, Sudan, who at his
best would be competitive in this field.
I suspect that LAURO had some physical problems that prevented him
from achieving the class he deserves.
He is 15-1 in the Morning Line, and if he can tuck in behind the
probable front runner, Cosmonaut, rather that fighting with Cosmo in
the early going, I think he has a chance to win.
Yes, once again he’s way outside, but with the exception of Cosmonaut,
there is no speed inside him. Cosmonaut’s fractions say “slow down” in
the last quarter, so Lauro has no need to duke it out with Cosmonaut
at the outset.
Yes, Lauro once lost to Marsh Side and Champs Elysees, but that was
following a year and a half layoff.
At 15-1 I am going with this pattern match, lay-2, following dynamic
prep race for top trainer who is still unknown in USA.
PS. Better Talk Now and Zambesi Sun seem to be racing for nostalgia
from the past. No turn of foot from either in recent races.
Ok friends, that’s my analysis. Any of the numerous contenders could
win, and that is why Dave labeled it a Problem Race. I would rather
pick a longshot here than in the Belmont. And as always, this is one
man’s attempt to provide objective information and a reasoned opinion.
You have the info too and you should look for leaks in my argument, or
if not, handicap the race in your own way. Among the above-mentioned
contenders, there will be other overlays, depending on how you rank
‘em.
MC.