Mark Cramer
C & X Report

CLAIMING CROWN, final report, part 2
THE TIARA
Went back to see RUNAWAY MARTHA and assistant trainer Gerald Brooks asked me once again, "What do you see in this mare?"
Sure was tempted to take her off the top, but with the 95-degree temperature and blazing sun, I just cannot place the Bay Area horse O.K. CORRAL on top. OUT OF PRIDE is legit and can win! It looks to me as if these three horses sew up the race.
THE GOLDEN SLIPPER
UNFORGETTABLE GAL is indeed the most likely winner, with ideal pressing running style. A must-use horse. However, I put BAR BAILEY on top, based on the her past class and the high altitude oxigenization from mile-high Arapahoe. This angle has kicked in often at Turf Paradise and other small tracks. BAR BAILEY has gone from the 60s Beyers to 80 Beyers before, and perhaps will recover some past class at a better price than UG. I WILL SURVIVE is your third horse with 6 1/2 credentials, knows the track, and is my third choice.
THE EXPRESS
My only doubts on LANDLER is that his very proficient young trainer has been snakebit of late and really needs this win. The jock is a friend of the trainer, otherwise he coulda found another rider with better than an 8 percent record. But the rider has some distinction in his past and can rise to the occasion. After that I have three horses that can all end up in the exactas, tris and supers: the favorite, ONLYNURIMAGINATION, MAX'S ACE, and CICERO GRIMES.
THE IRON HORSE
This is the toughest race, and I could not get past the favorite, R. LITTLE REDHEAD. Behind him, anything can happen, including MEAN KISSER, SACSAHUAMAN and MY EXTOLLED HONOR, whose trainer Asmussen is not coming here with the horse.
These races are all contentions in one way or another, so it's possible to strike out when swinging for the fences. I only wish that this were the Thursday night card because as one of the TV seminar handicappers, I picked 5 winners on the 9 race card in my top picks. It is so easy in this game to go from hero to bum. If you like an even-keeled lifestyle, stay out of this game.
Go Arapahoe!
Mark

CLAIMING CROWN REPORT, Part 1 of final comprehensive post
This may be the last post, unless I learn something Friday night or Saturday morning, so check back Saturday morn.
Let's work our way backwards.
THE JEWEL
My most likely winner is DESERT BOOM. Though he's not the expected favorite, turns out most of the guys in the press box saw the same thing I did, so this could be the "wiseguy horse". LORD OF THE GAME looked beautiful at his barn. The only fault could be that his Beyers have not increased, his margin of victory has decreased, and he may have reached his high plateau. Trainer stats also favor DB over Lord. HABANEROS is the best longshot chance. The low percentage trainer has a high average mutuel and the horse has won at 26-1, 24-1 and 14-1, with a fourth by a neck at nearly 14-1. This is a leverage horse in exotics.
THE EMERALD
MR. MABEE is the most likely winner in a field where most of these have similar turf Beyers. He's the most likely to improve. Jimmy Zook is a smart trainer. I put SCOTTAGO on top in the program because I wanted a less obvious horse. Locals have won this race before against classier rivals, and in a race where inspired riding could make a difference, rider Seth Martinez will get the most. DEVINE WIND is equal to these, and if past class kicks in, he can win for the Englander outfit. ROCKHURST is the longshot exotic inclusion with a good but low-profile trainer. There's a sprint-to-route pattern match, and this is the go-deep horse.
THE RAPID TRANSIT, 6 1/2 furlongs
is a 7-horse field in which all seven have a chance. However, if you eliminate horses that are BOTH front runners AND have no credentials beyond 6 furlongs, the horses that could get caught would be Rodeo's Castle, Crafty Player (a Dutrow horse in disguise, so watch out!) and Darkly Noon. That still leaves four horses. I've decided to toss Whiskey Sez from the win simply because his charming trainer just claimed the horse and was not the same trainer who had this horse at his peak. Dangerous toss because this one is tied for the best Beyer for the distance. The trainer of Awesome Alarm expressed his doubts about his horse getting the win, though he believes he can pick up third or fourth. I picked AA for third.
In the end, I landed on THE STUDENT because even if a speed-of-the-speed horse leaves the others in its wake, THE STUDENT can remain close enough to pounce. Though PROCREATE's recent races have been shorties, he is 2 for 3 for the distance. He will face a pace duel. That's my second choice. The Student has a rider edge over Procreate, and Alvarado has already ridden THE STUDENT.
I'm taking a break for a few minutes, so I'll post this and get back. mc