Mark Cramer
C & X Report

BELMONT
Final Post: summary and additional comments.
Key value horse: REVERBERATE, for reasons listed in previous post: pace, stabled at Belmont, trainer angle.
Most likely winner, the obvious horse, Afleet Alex, with 6/5 no bargain.
Other comments:
We mentioned that SOUTHERN AFRICA is not a throwout. Judge him since he added blinkers and you have an excuse for his pre-blinkers races. He is an improving horse, capable of staying close to the pace.
The ML gives Chekhov the same 12-1 odds as Southern Africa. Chekhov is one of so many Tabor horses named after literary figures. He may have a brighter future than Southern Africa but is not favored by his late-running style. Both Southern Africa and Chekhov were within range of Giacomo back in SoCal.
Giacomo is looking at a whole new scenario this time. If the pace is as lazy as it is projected to be, then Giacomo should have to stay closer to the pace this time, as he did in the San Felipe.
Finally, you have the other interesting pair, Indy Storm and Pinpoint. They both raced the same say as the Preakness. Indy Storm's race was an allowance, but he finished the 1 1/16 in 1:43.3 compared to Pinpoint's 1:44.2, and coming from behind, Indy Storm's early fractions are faster than Pinpoint's slow front runner "effort".
Looking at the DRF speed rating + track variant, Afleet Alex gets a 110 even though he broke a track record in the Preakness, Reverberate gets a 111 from the Peter Pan, Southern Africa gets a 108 from the Lone Star Derby, Giacomo gets a 102 in both Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Indy Storm gets a 101 from his allowance win, and Pinpoint gets a 97 in his Sir Barton win.
Both AP Arrow and Nolan's Cat get DRF figs that seem unrealistic because of a 33 variant. That came in a maiden race at the unusual distance of 1 1/4 (hard to make a variant for a time rarely traveled).
Interesting comparison: on a sly CD 1 1/4, AP Arrow and Nolan's Cat, in a maiden race, ran only 9 ticks slower than Giacomo on the fast track Kentucky Derby. If I were doing a variant, I doubt I'd have come up with a 33 for that maiden race.