Mark Cramer
C & X Report

PREAKNESS
Hoping to receive objective comments from readers. If they get to me on time, I'll post on Friday.
Key horse. CLOSING ARGUMENT. This was the only with-the-pace horse in the Derby who survived the wicked early pace. You might say that for him, the Derby was a prep for the Preeakness, since he'd entered the Derby with only two prep races, one way back in February. (Statistically, three preps have been needed for Derby success.)
CA has never been off the board. His ML odds are higher than High Fly, and yet he's defeated High Fly in their only two encounters.
Longshot inclusion. SCRAPPY T. Never off the board. Never. An overachiever. Won, place or showed at odds of 28-1, 23-1, 10-1, 11-1, 11-1 and 12-1. His poor third against Bellamy Road can be partly explained by the fact that it was an 8-week layoff. In the Preakness and Belmont, usually some local horse gets in the payoff. Scrappy T is the only horse with a workout at Pimlico, has a rider who does exceptionally well in Maryland, and a trainer who was successfully based in Maryland for years.
A good lawyer can make arguments for every other horse except Malibu Moonshine, Hal's Image and Galloping Grocer.
The smartasses would like to toss GIACOMO because he inherited the win, but if you inspect his running line, he deserves more credit than he got. Giacomo, Wilko and Greeley's Galaxy all advance tons of ground between the half and the mile, but between those three only Giacomo continued to advance in the final quarter. Other come-from-behinders made up little or no ground.
After what happened in the Derby, I project that the riders will all be trying to save their horses, so HIGH FLY (as the 4-1 second ML fave) will have a better chance, but the odds seem too low for me given that the Florida Derby from whence he came was just as bad a field as the Louisiana Derby. No surprise if he shows up. GREELEY'S GALAXY has a right to rebound, since he was green in the Derby, and must have learned a few lessons. AFLEET ALEX is an honest horse whose won only one route, and that was when everything set up for him. He had a great trip in the Derby and got beat fair and square by CLOSING ARGUMENT. Judging by the ML, the odds will be higher on CLOSING ARGUMENT than on AFLEET ALEX.
A couple of other horses have a right to wake up, based on class, but such a wake-up seems unprojectable and speculative. I am concerned about HIGH LIMIT, with his blinkers and with Prado who knows Pimlico, but I just cannot find enough legitimate credentials, given that the Louisiana Derby has turned out to be a negative key race. If he wins I won't be surprised, but still, as a turf lawyer, my closing argument is more convincing on my key and my longshot inclusion.
In summary, based on horses' credentials and odds, key horse is CLOSING ARGUMENT and longshot inclusion is SCRAPPY T.