Mark Cramer
C & X Report

ARLINGTON MILLION STAKES WEEKEND
One note before we discuss the four races I chosen for this weekend.
In the upcoming C&X, you will find a new trainer system. I hope you
understand from the title that this is in the research stage and that
we need many more research samples. We'll look forward to getting
fresh batches of races, and eventually the system will either be
validated or proven to be unsustainable.
THE SWORD DANCER
This race seems to be a co-choice affair, with both English Channel
and Better Talk Now on equal footing. With some moisture in the track
and early pace projected, English Channel will not have it all his own
way this time. I anticipate that the odds will be slightly better on
BETTER TALK NOW, and that might be good enough for a bet. I find it
amazing that following almost every loss, BTN come back to win. Just
when we'd like to give up on him, he's there once again. BTN is the
most likely winner.
As for the other horses, Embossed won at this track but had no
response vs. the top two. Fri Guy has a great trainer but with none of
his trainer specialties, and like Embossed, seems too slow, as does
Crown Point. Ramzutti is 0 for 9 at the distance, and even if
unintended, will probably be the rabbit. Grand Couturier is a notch
below the top French league and his wins come from a minor track.
Always fist has a cold trainer who was once Mr. Longshot at the Spa.
Always First, with an 8 3-3-2 for the distance, could inherit part of
the exotic payoff. The X factor is TRIPPI'S STORM, who has found
meaning to life on the grass and can improve. In summary, BETTER TALK
NOW is the most likely winner and TRIPPI'S STORM the exotic inclusion.
The race is iffy because the favorite we are trying to beat happens to
be a very legit fave.
THE BEVERLY D
Line and suggestions:
CITRONNADE 2-1, need 3-1. Yes there's a cheap speed horse in here to
press this front runner but she still can control the pace, unless
Irridescence also participates in the early going.
HONEY RYDER 3-1, need 9-2. My line works against a possible bet. HR
has made the boys tremble, but the mare she beat, Safari Queen, was
also beaten twice by Royal Highness, by a larger margin. Yes, that was
a lay-1 race for HR, but it was also lay-1 for Royal Highness.
LADY OF VENICE 4-1, need 6-1. 7 for 10 lifetime, and trainer-owner
combo has won this race the last two years. Big asset is that she
knows how to travel and win, and sometimes SoCal shippers lose to such
horses. But, she also has to close against what should not be a fast
pace. I suppose I could have picked this shapely dame if investigators
had not found snake venom in Mr. Biancone's refrigerator.
ROYAL HIGHNESS 9-2, need 7-1. This is the longshot possibility. There
are signs that this German-bred mare is getting better. She knows how
to travel and win.
IRRIDESCENCE comes from a clever barn and has been in elite company
but will probably be overbet, and I've decided to make her a
non-contender. If she wins, no great surprise.
Once again we have a race with legit favorites, so it's not the most
exciting betting proposition. If I can get 7-1 or better on ROYAL
HIGHNESS, I'll have a small win bet, and also have her with the faves
in exotics.
THE ARLINGTON MILLION
I looked long at the two foreigners. The post will hurt Danak, but he
certainly has a solid class and pedigree background, plus margin for
improvement. Doctor Dino has never before won fresh but has a clever
trainer, and the horse may actually be improving, having race against
but not won against better horses. Pressing defeated Soldier Hollow,
who finished third in this race last year, and is mainly here because
of his Italian form. Jambalaya is not the top Canadian turf horse, and
Canadians are usually outclassed here.
Sunriver, born again on the grass, projects to improve and will need
that improvement to win. He'll have to decide whether or not to take
on The Tin Man up front. After Market is a horse we've won with
before, but moisture in the track may slightly damage his chances. He
probably deserves to be the favorite.
When I first saw this race, I decided to beat THE TIN MAN. I felt he
had an easy lead in last year's edition of the Million. But this year,
he also gets a chance to dictate the pace, which means he can press or
lead, depending on the choice of Sunriver. THE TIN MAN has been here
and done this before, and for me, that gives him a slight edge. He's
had 7 races at the distance with 4 wins and a place. He's been around
the world and back. It's his third well-spaced race after the longer
layoff and I believe he's positioned to peak. He's my most likely
winner.
DOCTOR  DINO has recently beaten a horse he used to lose to. He may be
the type of horse that improves by coming Stateside. He's my exotic
inclusion. Obviously, you cannot throwout the fave.
There races, with three legit faves, and it seems like we're looking
for punishment.
PS. I've looked hard at the Secretariat Stakes and have been groping
but not grasping. If you put a gun to my head, I'd take Aidan
O'Brien's ADMIRALOFTHEFLEET. Performancewise, Arlington is a second
home for Mr. O'Brien. Lasix could be the answer.
I have NOT picked some rather good horses in each of these races. I
will bet, because it is my duty as a Citizen of Racing, but I won't be
surprised if the ones I fear end up beating me.