Mark Cramer
C & X Report

I WOOD HAVE
That's what I worry I will say after the race is run. This is last post, friends and colleagues.
(My SA Derby analysis remains the same, from the previous post.)
I watched the Gotham replay 10 times. Keyed Entry, in perfect stalking position, looked like the pace control horse versus the rest of the field, and fractions were slow. They may have been using the race as schooling, but after seeing it again and again, Greeley's Legacy looked like the best horse in the race. He really had no options mired in on the rail. For the moment, let's place GREELEY'S LEGACY with at least an equal chance to Keyed Entry, with much higher odds. That said, many of the wise guy experts are saying that GL is the best price in the field.
Bill referred to Weaver's comments on GREELEY'S LEGACY. However, having lived on the backside, I can assure you that for most races, you will find 5 or 6 trainers who say their horse looks great, worked perfectly, and has a good chance to win, and in this race, there are other optimistic trainers.
DEPUTY GLITTERS. We still do not know his status, depending on probable rains. His trainer is dominant, butI will take a stand against the Tampa Bay colony and see that his GP race does not compare favorably to Jazil's GP allowance race.
BOB AND JOHN. Still can't get past him, but at the same time, no great enthusiasm based on the odds. Yes, I will make him the most likely winner for the connections of previous Wood winner Congaree.
MARCO'S STYLE. If you like Greeley's Legacy, then you gotta consider Marco. As a second-time starter, he lost by 3/4 to Greeley before both horses improved. Marco's 19 March race, a day after the Gotham, looked super impressive, as he was 3-wide around both turns but then really turned on the gas and pulled away. The fractions may not be favorable to the Gotham's but this is one improving horse and he really knows the where the wire is at 1 1/8.
JAZIL. I was tempted to toss this horse after having named him the exotic inclusion. He beat doggy-doo in his maiden win. But that was as a 2yo. His GP allowance win was not shabby. In the same way that Bill checked Weaver's comments on Greeley, I checked 'em on JAZIL. In the Fountain of Youth, Jazil bled through his lasix. That's why he lost by 7 to Corinthian after having been only 3/4 behind Corinthian in the previous alw. If you whiten out the Fountain of Youth, you come up with a horse that finished 3/4 behind the eventual winner of the Fountain of Youth.
Now, JAZIL has worked out with no lasix and did not bleed.
When I first posted JAZIL as the exotic inclusion, I mentioned the dominant trainer and rider. Well since then, this same combo has a 13.20 winner yesterday at the Big A. They are red hot.
MARCO'S STYLE's trainer was 9 for 34 in 2005 and his rider Norberto Arroyo is hot right now.
Summary
I will keep JAZIL as a longshot exotic inclusion, sticking with my original "thin slicing" (see Malcolm Gladwell's book "Blink") but will also find ways to use GREELEY'S LEGACY and MARCO'S STYLE. I can afford to do this only because I believe that Keyed Entry can finish out of the top two slots. Sorry, can't say how exactly I'll use these 3 longshots, but one combo for sure is to exacta backwheel BOB AND JOHN under those three.
This was fun, though I end up feeling more like a horses' lawyer than a handicapper.
mark