Mark Cramer
C & X Report

BELMONT
This is a second try at doing a second message. You have the first message posted, and my key horse remains the same. I've had trouble getting the second message posted, so I'll abbreviate here.
We have a field full of deep closers and pressers, with very little early speed. This pace scenario favors High Finance, who knows the track, especially if the recent maiden winner Double Galore does not challenge or press for the lead.
As for the closers maybe getting up for third in the tri, Steppenwolf is the most consistent, never off the board in all his dirt tries.
Our key horse, Oh So Awesome, was a stalker in France, so he might be able to stay up close enough to the pressers. One more positive stable intention is the addition of lasix. (See previous post for reasons in favor of Oh So Awesome.)
If I sound like Casey Stengel, it's because this race is truly complex, with various possible scenarios.
Enjoy this great event.
Mark

BELMONT: second message
Oh So Awesome remains the key. He's getting lasix for the first time, which is one more sign of positive stable intention.
His running style in Europe was tracking the pace. This will be needed in a field with very little legit early speed.
Pace:
The longer the race, the more you find long-winded horses whose trainers think they'll have a better chance with more real estate to cover. Such a dynamic often creates an unusual advantage for the few early pace horses, who may find themselves controlling the pace rather than being forced to go too fast too early.
It seems to be that with so little early speed, it will be difficult for a deep closer to win this race. High Future thus becomes a pace factor. If for some reason the California maiden winner does not get off quickly, High Future will be in an ideal position. There are several pressers, including the favorites, so it won't be so easy.
For third place in the tri, the closer Steppenwolfer is intriguing. He's never been off the board on the dirt and seems less vulnerable to trip and weather considerations. The horse that won the Peter Pan is also a prime contender for this spot. The exacta horses in the Wood were both favored by the off track, one of the reasons why this website was able to call that exacta. They may not move up on a fast track.
If I sound like Casey Stengel, it's because this race is as complex as they come.
Inspiration should come from the toteboard when you observe the relative odds of these horses.
In summary, I continue to back the same key horse, and I feel that the pace factor should have some say in the outcome, given the few speed horses in a sea of come-from-behinders.
Enjoy a great race.
Mark

Dear readers and colleagues,
For the Belmont, I have decided to use the thin-slicing technique, and find the one most different horse among the many possible enticing angles. There are, for sure, trainer and form angles on a number of these horses. If you have an argument on any other of these horses, go for it. The race is wide open, and I have no monopoly on angles here.
The key horse I'm interested in is OH SO AWESOME. I confess that there is something subjective here. I had his dad in the BC Classic, with the tri as well. Furthermore, I remember seeing this horse in France and thinking that it was more aptly bred for the dirt.
Formerly trained by Rouget, one of France's best, Oh So Awesome will have no problem with the Belmont distance. He was only 7/2 against Darsi, and Darsi came back to convincingly win the French Derby! OH SO AWESOME is 20-1 in the morning line.
He has a prep over the track, an important angle for this race!
The new owners are not bragging about this horse but they specifically purchased him for the Belmont.
Other worthy horses to mention:
Deputy Glitters has the same trainer we've been collecting on, and if (ONLY IF) the track is dry, this is worth a $2 action bet. He has beaten the horse that may end up as the public favorite.
High Finance has a "Big Win" over this track, though at only nw1.
Finally, any horse stabled at Belmont could provide a surprise. This angle has worked frequently.
I may do one more post if I receive worthy information.
Mark