Mark Cramer
C & X Report

ARC
It's Japan day at Longchamp. They've even constructed a special makeshift building to receive Japanese photographers. The Japanese hero (a horse sired by Sunday Silence) Deep Impact, may end up the favorite in the race, given all the Japanese money arriving in France.
If your pool is separate, you may be able to bet Deep Impact in the States at higher odds. Deep Impact has 10 wins in 11 career tries, but never in France, and his trainer has no record in France. He's also going into the race off a 14 month layoff.
If the odds were 5-1 or 6-1 we could talk about betting this horse. But at low odds we'll let him win. The new thing about this year's Arc is that there are no rabbits. Deep Impact is a closer, Hurricane Run (Fabre) is a closer or sometimes presser, the filly Pride (who once defeated Hurricane Run), is also a closer, and Fabre's third horse, the 3-year-old Rail Link is a sometimes presser-sometimes closer. Rail Link comes the the Prix Niel, the prep that has most often produced Arc winners. But Rail Link seems to be from a weak 3-year-old crop. SUDAN has finished close to him three times and Sudan is now 1-for-8 lifetime. Today, Saturday, Sudan finished fourth of six horses in a solid Grade II race, and that's not enough to flatter Rail Link.
That leaves us with Shirocco. Shirocco benefited from a slow pace when not letter Hurricane Run and Pride get past him in the Prix Foy. He jogged behind the rabbit, and really he was like a lone front runner vs. the rest. But today, he also figures to get an easy pace all over again. He has not lost a race since winning the BC Turf. They knock him because he would prefer softer going, but he did win the Coronation at Epson with a track condition similar to what projects for Sunday's Arc. Meanwhile, Hurricane Run might end up being an overlay because he's lost twice in his last four, but Andre Fabre will have HR ready.
For this reason, I am making SHIROCCO my most likely winner. If Shirocco's odds were considerably lower that Hurricane Run's or Deep Impact, then we could seriously consider betting on either of those two. However, that's unlikely to happen.
Meanwhile, the filly PRIDE has been methodically pointed to this race. Pride was also a victim of the slow pace in the Prix Foy and finished lapped with Shirocco and HR. None of the three were whipped. In a race where the exotics will not be generous, Pride is a reasonable exotic inclusion at greater odds than the other four contenders. In other Arc-day races:
PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC 2yo femmes, 7f
Since German horses have been winning much more than their fair share and the German breeding business is peaking, let's look at the longshot SUGAR BABY LOVE. Trainer Hofer is 6 for 36 shipping to France. There was an all German exacta on Saturday's stakes card.
PRIX JEAN LUC LAGARDERE 2yos, 7F
Trainer Aidan O'Brien owns this race, winning it six of the last nine times. His HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR is by far the high earner here. However, several undefeated horses have a right to get faster as they mature. In Saturday's 7f Grade 1 race, the British/Irish/German invaders embarrassed the French contenders, so Fabre's undefeated co-fave Visionario could get beaten by HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR.
Your getting one other race simulcast, a second rate Handicap race in which anything can happen. Generally, the pin-the-tail-on-the-program method works best for this type of race. I pass.
Mark