Mark Cramer
C & X Report

KNOCK ON WOOD AGAIN
Bill's post of Greeley's Legacy convinced me to restudy the pps. I'm gonna allow you to see the process of my thought, risking embarrassment after Bill correctly noted that my comments were "sparse".
Can of Worms
The problem here is that once we consider Greeley's Legacy, we need to review the whole crew of late developers who were racing, like GL, on the Aqueduct inner dirt course. Originally, I felt that Greeley's Legacy should have held a home field advantage on the inner course in his previous race, and winter inner dirt horses are all suspect to me. Reconsidering GL means we should also reconsider Marco's Tale. In appearance, Coa chose Greeley over Marco, but Marco may not have been entered in this race until after Coa had committed. Marco gets a hot rider for a high-percentage/low-profile stable.
Let's talk about individual horses.
BOB AND JOHN. Normally I love horses that win again and again by huge margins. But this guy was only above odds-on once in those big wins, and that was 6/5. Nevertheless, you cannot blame him too much for the horses he left in his wake.
GREELEY'S LEGACY. There are two other positives. First, he had a Big Win two races back, and the trip in the Gothem, as Bill noted, may have prevented him from making the Big Win method look good. What I really like is that he improved and won when stretching out to 1 1/8.
I've been hung up on my research on horses that win early, and not so keen on late developers. Remember the long-term research shows that early bloomers are more productive in later races than late bloomers.
In summary, we have the recent Big Win and the improve-when-stretching-out to 1 1/8/
JAZIL. I really only have two dimensions for using this horse as an exotic inclusion: the trainer and the breeding, which would really come in handy if this track comes up sloppy. However, Jazil's narrow maiden win was over a horse named Tastyville. The same Tastyville was trounced by the debut winner Scanlon's Song. I do believe in trainer determinism, and this guy's trainer is in one of his hot clusters.
MARCO'S TALE. Here we have another late developer, and another horse whose best is at 1 1/8 (in fact, with two convincing wins at the distance). There's a hot rider and a small stable with a 26% record. Marco lost to Greeley by only 3/4 and then improved at tomorrow's distance.
As you can see, there's lots to think about. Marco's Tale was only entered in this race after two horses were scratched. Is that opportunism or pure home-for-the-best. The high percentage of the trainer tells us we should take this one seriously.
As you can see, this race is growing on me. I would like to sleep on this one and let things develop in my subconsious, which means I'll ask you to check in one last time tomorrow morn.
If anyone has opinions about where to situate the inner dirt horses in the hierarchy of values, say, compared with Santa Anita, send me an e-mail. I will check my mail before I post bright and early tomorrow morn.
Mark

This post is from a reader, a different Bill. We have lots of good handicappers named Bill. I'm gonna look again at Greely's Legacy. For me this may have been a case of premature conclusions based on stuff I got off the web. (They also sell cures for cancer on the web.) Read the contents of this post and you will see that, win or lose for Greeley's Legacy, this man is a real thinker and analyst.
Mark
Hi, Mark---I just saw your post on the Wood, which was, I humbly suggest, a sparse discussion. I'd suggest you take a close look @ Greely's Legacy. The horse has been VERY slow in developing, but IS developing, and has a LOT of potential. The horse is nominally trained by George Weaver, but George went to Florida for the winter. His entire New York string has been in the complete charge of his assistant, Lawrence Ulrich. Lawrence has never trained in his own name, is completely unknown to the public, but is extremely well-regarded and respected by his peers (He was, at one time, THE trainer on the farm for Golden Eagle Farms during their heyday). Ulrich is about 25% at Aqueduct this winter, with a HUGE R.O.I. (which would have improved had not his 24-1 horse been beaten a neck in last Saturday's 7th!). In any case, I know Ulrich expects this horse to have a big future. Note that Greely's Legacy lost by only 11/2 in the Gotham, while stuck inside the entire stretch in a questionable ride by Coa, since he KNEW that the horse has ALWAYS hated being inside!. Ulrich has been working on this "problem", though, and sees further improvement. The horse worked last Sat. INSIDE a workmate w/ Coa up and the work was outstanding. It won't show in the DRF as a fast work, BUT the work was the fastest 5f work between the 1st & 2d breaks by over 2 seconds (!!) with Coa never moving a muscle. Greely's Legacy has drawn the 6 post, and I know Ulrich is very happy with that. It's 5:30 p.m. EST and I just spoke to Lawrence. He is very low key, but actually believes he'll win the race tomorrow, UNLESS there is a very strong speed bias. Take it for what it's worth!---Bill

WOOD MEMORIAL
Weather report inconclusive as to track condition tomorrow. Normally I'd go against Keyed Entry since he improves less the more he stretches out, so that he could get caught at the 1 1/8. Bob and John, on the other hand, has his best race at the longest distance. Litfin picks Keyed Entry, so perhaps Bob and John could at least have as high odds or higher than Keyed Entry. (In the slop, if it becomes sloppy, Keyed Entry could slosh on longer and hang in there.)
Bob and John's running style, especially when he's come from off the pace, may not have been most conducive to SoCal, so perhaps he could enjoy the east coast. He does have some excuses in his pps, as well.
So, most likely winner is Bob and John. That's not saying much odds-wise, so let's throw in an exotic inclusion, the rail horse Jazil.
Jazil has the same daddy and the same dam-sire as Bob and John, and that means both he and B & J should be able to handle a possible wet track. Jazil's hot trainer is what most appeals. He switches to his winning rider, he's been here before and liked it, and his Dam was a graded stakes winner on this track.
So that's my attempt to squeeze blood from a turnip.
PS. The Big A website said that Deputy Glitters was a probable scratch due to the track condition, otherwise this slayer of Bluegrass Cat would have gotten more mention here. Big trainer-rider combo and on the improve.