Mark Cramer
C & X Report

PS.
Maybe I wasn't so clear. I see Lava Man as having the best chance of all other contenders to defeat the legit favorite Flower Alley. Lava Man could be the value play.
mc

STAKES WEEKEND
JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP
Four contenders in this field (Suave, Borrego, Lava Man, Imperialism) have all finished a close second or third to Rock Hard Ten. Three of these are Californians that seem to be shipping to Belmont to not have to confront RHT back in SoCal, who returns after a long layoff to prep seriously for the BC Classic.
Suave lost to RHT after a victory. Borrego lost to RHT following a win. Imperialism lost to RHT in a lay-2, his best form pattern. Lava Man,s near miss to RHT came before Lava Man had become a good horse. Check the blinkers. Blinks on and LM gets the job done. Except his last effort when he was in a heated pace duel under the hot sun in the Pacific Classic and faded to third, to be vanned off the track with heat exhaustion. O’Neill has given him a deserved freshening. Lava Man has no credentials from the pps that would prove he can ship.
That makes Pletcher’s Flower Alley the legit most likely winner. Flower Alley’s failure in the Kentucky Derby has reasonable explanations. He was part of the speed brigade, and in that race, the early horses folded like a dead fan. More important, he was in his fifth career race and was still green. Enough said, because this horse will be the favorite.
I could be wrong but I see Sun King as a notch below the best, even when he’s in form. A Borrego victory would only be a mild surprise, but intrinsically his regular rival Lava Man is a superior horse. Imperialism is dangerous with a pattern of moving up second after a layoff.
THE ARC
In this preliminary report, let’s take note that 3-year olds have thoroughly dominated this race. Saturday’s card will provide us with some indicators.
SCORPION, who lost to HURRICANE RUN at the Curragh, matured enough to win the Grand Prix de Paris in record time for that race, same 2,400 meter (mile and a half) distance as the Arc. SCORPION then came back to win the St. Leger at Doncaster, a length ahead of THE GEEZER who was five lengths better than the third horse. THE GEEZER races on Saturday’s card in the 3,000 meter Prix Chaudenay in a competitive field. Should THE GEEZER win, it will flatter SCORPION.
SCORPION’s Grand Prix de Paris was extraordinary. The last furlong of that race was run in 12:20, about the same as the final furlong of the other three big Longchamp preps for the Arc. But the first 7 furlongs of the Grand Prix de Paris were run 4 whole seconds faster than the Prix Foy, 5 secs faster than the Prix Vermeille, and 7 seconds quicker than the Prix Niel. If time were the only factor, SCORPION would be the favorite. But time is but one factor and SCORPION will not be the most heavily bet horse.
Another yardstick on Saturday’s card is RUNAWAY, entered in the Prix Dollar at just short of a mile and a quarter. This too is a competitive field. RUNAWAY finished second to the probable Arc favorite, HURRICANE RUN, beaten by three lengths in the relatively slow Prix Niel at Longchamp. A victory for RUNAWAY on Saturday would restore the value of the Prix Niel and boost the stock on HURRICANE RUN;
SCORPION and HURRICANE RUN are two of the top three year olds entered in the Arc. The other is MOTIVATOR, winner of the Epsom Derby.
The “different horse” is WESTERNER, year after year the dominant stayer at marathon distances, virtually unbeatable. He has nothing more to prove and now “shortens up” to a mile and a half. With two rabbits entered in the Arc, Westerner’s chances will be enhanced, but the marathoners he’s defeated are simply not in the same league as the top classic horses.
Last year’s Arc winner, BAGO, is back, after getting a late start, without the time to show anything near the dominance he had as a 3-year-old. The last time the same horse won two consecutive Arcs was with Alleged, 1977-78.
The filly SHAWANDA must be taken seriously, since the Aga Khan stable has found it fit to pay a stiff supplemental fee to enter a rabbit, even with one rabbit already entered. SHAWANDA’s Prix Vermeille win in 2’32:30 was slower than HURRICAN RUN’s Prix Niel (2’30:70). SHAWANDA needs to finish at least fourth to pay for her entry mate’s supplemental fee.This report was filed on Friday eve, France time. It rained Friday, on and off, sometimes seemingly hard, but I rode for three hours in it on my bicycle and my pants were only slightly humid when I arrived home, so we'll need more rain to really soften up the track. Rain is indeed forecast for Saturday. Sixteen horses have been entered, including the two rabbits. Stay tuned tomorrow eve for a final Arc report.
Mark