Mark Cramer
C & X Report

The Arc and other Weekend Stakes
THE TIN MAN looks too obvious in the Clement Hirsch Turf Championship at a low price, so we'll pass.
The Hawthorne race looks interesting but seems like a trap, with the two shippers from Emerald going in with big credentials in a short field. Pletcher's favorite does look vulnerable but anything seems possible in that race.
Therefore, I've decided to stab for the:
OAK LEAF BREEDERS CUP
The legit favorite, Baffert's POINT ASHLEY, should get 2-turns off pedigree but does have the far outside and if you look at Baffert's stats, he's not one you can often make money on, showing a loss in every specialty area.
Since these are so young, any one or ones of them could show a sharp improvement. The two Big Win horses, #2 TONJA'S WORLD and BACK IN THE SHADE both have some positive stats, but their big wins were earned in questionable fields. Solis is 4-for-9 with the barn of Back In The Shade.
However, I'm going to look at two other horses to use one way or another.
#8 OUTOFTHEPAST, closed 13 1/2 lengths in a fast-paced Del Mar sprint against tiring leaders, while Point Ashley closed 8 lengths in the same race. With some horses going wide and others perhaps caught in a duel, I see OUTOFTHEPAST as the opportunist of the field, the one that could finish in the money at high odds. Therefore, he could be used in all positions.
#10 CASH INCLUDED, has the best stats for the win of all these horses, though he too could be forced wide. The stat that I like the most is that Nakatani has started the meet on fire, and so often in these shorter meets, the rider who begins hot continues that way throughout. A second stat is that Nakatain wins nearly 33% with the Craig Dollase stable. Though the trainer's win % leaves something to be desired, in Sprint-to-Route he has a 15% positive return on investment and in the 2-y-o category he's even better. The point is that 2 year olds can show remarkable improvement. CASH INCLUDED went from a 61 Beyer in his debut race to an 81 Beyer in his second and most recent try. He figures to stretch out quite well, based on pedigree, so what would happen if he improves another 20 Beyer points.
In conclusion, OUTOFTHEPAST is the exotic inclusion and CASH INCLUDED is the improving horse that might surprise for a win at decent odds.
Baffert's horse can win this, for sure. He's not a false favorite. But no one wins money in the long run backing Baffert horses, and the trainer's skill with young horses might possibly be nullified by the outside post.
Would have loved to go up against a false fave, but we take what we can get.
THE ARC
I'll check the Saturday Longchamp races for any clues for the Arc on Sunday and will post for the Arc on Saturday. At the moment, even though it's a relatively small field, the race is densely contentious. Too bad we have no field fillers to boost the odds. The filly I liked, Mandesha, did not supplement and opted for the 6-horse Prix de l'Opera. That filly has a future.
In the Arc, please understand that the Prix Foy prep race had a very slow pace. Shirocco, as the lone presser, had the jump over Hurricane Run and Pride, so those last two might have a better shot at beating Shirocco if the pace is honest. That said, Shirocco has become a perfect thoroughbred. He only wins.
The Japanese sensation, Deep Impact may end up as the favorite. The Japanese cannot bet their beloved champion at home, and a hundreds of them will be here with a huge entourage to pour money into the pools.
Fabre's third horse, Rail Link, cannot be tossed, because he comes from the Prix Niel, the prep race that has produced the most Arc winners. Normally, 3-year-olds like him have an edge, but this year's older crop may be the best ever. That's why so many horses defected, for the lesser horses usually come for a smaller purse, but the five horses I've mentioned are all serious win contenders. The we have Sixties Icon, who was supplemented but who comes from a win in a stakes race that usually doesn't produce Arc stars.
The other two are no slouches, but Irish Wells and Best Name are hoping that in an 8-horse field, they can pick up a purse of the top ones compete too fervently and tire, which is not gonna happen.
I'll be back with Arc analysis tomorrow.
Win or lose this weekend, hope you'll all stay with us for another year of C&X, and allow me to do something I rarely do, and that is to plug my book of racing fiction, Scared Money (DRF Press).
Mark