Mark Cramer
C & X Report

FLORIDA DERBY
I have an even rating for ELYSIUM FIELDS and BIG BROWN, and in such
cases, I take the higher odds of the two, whichever it is.
ELYSIUM FIELDS. I love to bet back horses that went 5 wide on their
first turn in a route. If you forget the Beyers, this horse has the
fastest 11/8 at GP. He was also 3 wide on second turn and that was the
highest class race of any horse in the field. He was best of the rest
by nearly 6 lengths.
BIG BROWN is the one which could continue to improve and is the Big
Win horse. Dutrow canceled his trip to Dubai in order to be with Big
Brown. But he does leave from the far outside.
HEY BYRN also has two Big Wins, both at GP, and we can love this
trainer in stakes races.
Several other horses have a right to improve.
I tried to make the case for the Peruvian horse since South America is
on the rise. Beyer's writing about South American racing, and I'm
finishing a novel with that theme. But alas, this trainer has not won
with first time shippers from Peru and he doesn't have any luck given
the quality of the American horses, so Tomcito maybe can be included
in exotics.
Majestic Warrior has that bad trip in his last, but he also has the
look of what I call the "child prodigy" who lost interest. Face the
Cat can't be eliminated but does not inspire great enthusiasm but he
beat a horse that came back to win and would not be a huge surprise.
BONNIE MISS STAKES: GP
The Exotic Inclusion here is ROBBIE'S GAL. Doesn't fit my trainer win
profile, but this filly has finished 3rd at 17-1, 2nd at 33-1 and 2nd
at 9-1, thus qualifying as an OVERACHIEVER. Furthermore, there's a
switch to Lezcano, who was the last rider to win with her.
SHE'S ALL ELTISH is the most likely winner, and may not be the
favorite, since there are a couple of horses that might draw action
for having kept classy company.
and finally, to DUBAI in the
GOLDEN SHAHEEN, a race that has been dominated by American horses, but
not always the most likely of the Americans. BC Sprint winners have
been defeated in this race. Godolphin is trying to take this away from
the Americans by having purchased the speedster Diabolical, but I've
seen this horse get beaten at low odds. Benny the Bull has a perfect
trip in his last versus lesser, but has improved. He needs the field
to back up.
I'm going with a horse at higher odds, which is:
BARBECUE EDDIE. Barbecue Eddie has defeated none other than Idiot
Proof, who is also in this field and Idiot Proof will probably have
lower odds. Intrinsically Idiot Proof seems to me a better horse than
Benny the Bull. I'm not sure why some folks are complaining about the
post position of Idiot Proof (14) because the race is on a
straightaway.
Those are the four I see in the exotics, with Barbecue Eddie as the
overlay among them.
And of course, remember that this is supposed to be fun, so if you
have studied the pps and found something that I've missed, do NOT be
touted off your discovery.
mark