Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Derby 2009, Stakes Weekend: post #2
I have been trying to identify a particular characteristic of this
Derby field. I think we can say that most of the contenders have
beaten inferior fields.
For example, I Want Revenge defeated West Side Bernie, who had lost 4
straight races going into the Wood, including getting trounced in the
Lane’s End by Hold Me Back.
Then we have Dunkirk, trying to win the Derby off 3 career races, but
he’s no Big Brown. The horses behind him in the Florida Derby were
sub-standard. Gomez is off.
Then we have Pioneer of the Nile, coming from the SA Derby that
because of it’s poor performance in producing Kentucky Derby winners
should be demoted to Grade II. More Hot Stuff was third to Pioneer and
he’s only won a maiden race, losing his other seven tries. Yes,
Pioneer defeated Chocolate Candy, but Chocolate Candy couldn’t break
his maiden until his fourth career race, and his claim to fame comes
from sub-standard Golden Gate.
The Kentucky Derby contender that has beaten the best horse is Friesan Fire.
What I like about Friesan Fire is:
(1) trounced Papa Clem by 7 and Papa Clem came back to win Arkansas
Derby. The other contenders did not beat any horses of quality. In
February, Papa Clem finished sandwiched between the two Derby
favorites, only a half length behind Pioneer and another length ahead
of Revenge.
(2) this is the trainer of Hard Spun and Eight Belles. He is an
overachieving Derby trainer.
(3) the 57.4 breezing bullet work at Churchill (after which he seemed
to have stopped cold) was remarkably similar to the 58.2 work 5 days
before LA Derby over a slow strip. Workout specialist Mike Welsh was
troubled by the CD bullet work but today says that the horse was back
on the track and looked great
In summary, the overachiever factor (trainer), the fact that the horse
he beat is better than the horses that I Want Revenge beat, or those
beaten by Dunkirk, or those that Pioneer beat, and the training regime
that mimics that of Hard Spun.
At the moment I am leaning towards Desert Party. I am not keen on his
stable mate Regal Ransom because there was an enormous front runner
bias that evening in the UAE Derby when Desert Party was second to
Regal Ransom.
What I like the most about Desert Party is that he has the sire of
both Street Sense and Zenyatta. Incredible breeding! Even though Regal
Ransom outworked Desert Party, DP earned the “best work of the day”
rating.
These two horses are not necessarily my most likely winners, as I have
not yet come up with a ranked order. However, even if I were to choose
I Want Revenge or Pioneer of the Nile on top, I could give neither
less than 4-1 odds which would require 6-1 for a wager, something we
will not get.
I am now going to review Hold Me Back’s trip in the Blue Grass, as
well as the “Problem Race” and I will get back to you.
Mark

Derby 2009, the Problem Race
Ken has given me a royal headache with this race. It’s the 8th race on
turf at Churchill, Grade II.
In my final post tomorrow I will re-check in case this race in danger
of going off the grass.
These 11 horses cannot be separated on speed. The classiest SoCal
horse of the field, Visit, earned a 135.2 in a grade 1 at Hol while
Lemon Chiffon got a 134.1 in an SA grade 2, with Sugar Mint earning a
134.2 in an SA optional claimer, and Dawn After Dawn earned a 134.1 in
a 70,000 stakes race, also on SA turf. The Eastern horses can be
wrapped in a similar blanket. Only Rasierra, never on grass and low
Tomlinson and Stealin Kisses with Lukas at 0 for 41 in stakes races,
can be tossed, and even Stealin Kisses has won on the CD turf.
The only class horse in the race is Frankel’s Visit. No need to
explain we. He towers over this field on past class, but he has now
failed twice as the favorite and he has a long-winded style that may
be compromised by the predictably slow pace.
There are lots of good stats on these horses and the same horses have
lots of bad stats. Out of this mess, I am extracting two horses based
on a pace analysis. There are three slow-paced front speed horses,
including the projected improver, the win type Tizaqueena. There are
also long-winded closers. I am therefore going to favor the one pace
presser that is a win type, and that horse is the 11, Dawn After Dawn.
Look at the grass stats: 4 3-1-0 at the distance/turf and 7 4-1-0 on
turf overall. Now look at the trainer stats, by far the best in this
field. Sadler has an incredible flat-bet profit over 271 turf races,
and he has profits in other specialty categories.
So if the cold Douglas can become the cool Douglas and track the
slow-speed, this win-type could see the wire first.
Then I have a place candidate. That one is Ballymore Lady. At first
this looks like a win type, with a turf/distance record of 3 2-0-1.
But even more interesting, this horse is coming to this race off a
lay-off and in his three similar comeback races, he’s finished second
every time, at odds of 4-1, 9-1 and 2-1. Kenneally has a flat-bet
profit with grass horses, his only profitable specialty category. What
makes the place seem more likely than the win is that this horse has
to come from farther off the slow pace.
This is indeed a problem race. No sense going deep into this race.
After it is over, you will find good reasons in the pps why the winner
won, but before the fact it’s not at all clear.
I assume that the obvious class horse, Visit, will be the favorite,
and she could win this on class alone. Be she is also vying for the
crown of Miss Beaten Favorite, and cannot be bet at low odds.
So I’ve got Dawn After Dawn as the horse that could sneak in at a
price, and Ballymore Lady as the back-wheel or place candidate.
This was indeed a problem race, a worthy way to get one’s torturous
revenge against yours truly. In the end, the trip and the ride will
play a great role and it's almost like predicting where a pool ball
will end up after the break.
Mark
PS. As for the Derby, I looked long at Hold Me Back and I sense he is
too long-winded to blow past these horses, and he has to contend with
a dirt surface he has not proven to like.
On the other hand, looking back at the Wood Memorial, I can testify
that the favorite, I Want Revenge, looks like he has the right
acceleration and would have defeated that pitiful field by 8 or 9
lengths with a reasonable trip. Reading between the lines of the rider
commentary, I Want Revenge may have been out for a stroll in the park
that day.
I now have three must use horses: Friesan Fire, Desert Party and I Want Revenge.