Mark Cramer
C & X Report

STAKES WEEKEND, ARLINGTON:

PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS

The difference between this and last year’s Arlington Million is noteworthy. In last year’s edition, Spirit One led the second team of foreign imports. I picked him because his early speed style was against the bias in France and with the bias at Arlington. Also, because he was not facing a top contingent of American horses.

Yes, Einstein was in that field, but since then, Einstein has become one of the wisest horses in history, winning on all surfaces and track conditions, and he’s not even the favorite at 4-1. That role is left to Gio Ponti, and if you look at this Clement-trained champion’s last three grade 1 wins, he has been remarkably impressive. Making up ground with flair to win each time.

The shape of this race is bizarre, since from way back we have Gio Ponti and from a runaway leader’s position, we have Presious Passion, who looks like a freak of evolution, going through sprint-like early fractions in routes, and then holding on against the lone presser Lauro at Monmouth, or before that race, looking caught in the stretch at Gulfstream and making a second move!!! after his sizzling early fractions.

Yes, Gio Ponti has defeated better horses, as has Einstein, but Presious Passion has achieved something we rarely see in thoroughbred racing and his final times are worthy.

Imagine them strung out in this way, and then look at the French-trained horse Gloria de Campeao, second at 53-1 in the Dubai World Cup and most recently, victorious at 6-1 in a Group I Singapore race.

Gloria de Campeao’s trainer Pascal Bary is not new to Arlington. He won the BC Mile there with Domedriver. I checked my database and Bary has won 5 of his last 15 races in France with five different horses. The stable spoke of Breeders Cup aspirations. Bary has won three BC races. The horse is no stranger to shipping, having won on three continents.

Gloria de Campeao may be sitting where Lauro was with respect to Presious Passion, and GDC is a better horse than Lauro, who got within a length or so to PP at Monmouth.

I have studied the two other foreign horses as well as the respectable supporting cast for this year’s Arlington Million. I saw Cima de Triomphe in his Sandown race, in which he was behind two champions: Sea of Stars and Conduit. Conduit came back to win the King George. But the top three at Sandown were spaced ahead of Cima and none of the horses behind Cima were any good.

As for the Beverley D, I have tried to make a case for Alnadana on the basis of his Aga Khan connections. I went back into the past data for Alnadana, and articles following her recent victory on a straight mile at Grade 3 at Maisons Laffitte, and they were talking about maybe trying a Grade 2. What made them decide on this big race? In Alnadana’s win, his most competitive rival was a late scratch and he inherited a pace-control scenario. His rider, Christophe Soumillon, has won a BC race on Shirocco, and knows the American pace culture.

Meanwhile, this race’s two favorites, Pure Clan and Black Mamba, are both closers. We’ll have to think through all the angles.

I will post again Friday night. Here, I have tried to hunt down information that might not be available in the DRF. You can see the race replays of most of these horses on Youtube.

Mark