Mark Cramer
C & X Report

THE FOREGO
We see another example of how it has become trendy to go for the win off a layoff. In fact, for several of these lay-1 trainers, this race will be the prep for the BC-Sprint, but a prep they very much want to win.
The longshot I a-l-m-o-s-t picked was:
YESSIRGENERALSIR caught my eye because of his unbelievable pace-setting fractions in the Whitney. However, the horse that was right with him held on to win that route, suggesting that the pace was not as quick as it was listed electronically. In any case, this guy is getting Albarado, who was aboard him for his best win.
The pace in this race is strange: fast early 7f and route fractions. YESSIR may be a need-to-lead horse, which means, in a sprint, he'll have his work cut out for him at 30-1 in the ML.
If you're going deep, YESSIR can be an exotic inclusion.
The other X horse is TOCCET. There is nothing to like about this one, except that he is new in the Frankel barn and comes back as a lay-1, two big Frankel stats. If he wins, we will have another example of how a "supertrainer" can totally change the ways of a horse.
Now for my line, in which there seems to be only one of my contenders that varies much from the public line maker.
The personal odds line reflects the horses' probabilities (as I see them), and the second odds figure includes the 50 percent overlay required for a play.
STRONG HOPE: 5-2. Need 4-1. Pletcher has two big lay-1 wins this meet, and this horse has proven ability off a layoff. He's also the only one with legit 6f early speed, so a steal would not surprise.
There is one negative; otherwise I'd have him at 2-1 as does the ML guy. All of his wins are wire-to-wire, and he may have lots of work to do early.
CLOCK STOPPER: 4-1. Need 6-1. Loves this track, and has finished second by 1/2 to some very good ones, namelyGhostzapper and Cajun Beat, just before Cajun went on to win the BC-Sprint.
Trainer has poor record in graded stakes and this horse often finds a way to just miss. Backwheel anyone? This horse has the aura of second place, but the capability of winning.
A HUEVO: 4-1. Need 6-1. Excluding his one DQ, this horse has won every single career race except one, and that one race was following a nearly 4-year layoff. Trainer is good with 294-day comebackers, and works say he's fit and ready. Has local owner. They purposely bypassed a prep race so that he'd avoid the bounce. He won his second race after the 4-year layoff, so certainly he can run fresh. The horse he beat in the Gr. 1 DeFrancis came back to win a Grade 3, and two other horses from that field came right back to win. Looking at his Morning Line of 8-1, he becomes my only contender who figures to be an overlay, so he should be the KEY horse in exotics. The negative is his come-from-the-clouds style.
MIDAS EYES: 5-1. Need 7-1. Most of the experts see this one as a bounce candidate, and that scares me. Yes, he just won after a layoff and comes back in 10 days. Lay-1 win and quick comeback is not a good Frankel stat. However, for a long time I thought this horse could develop into a good one. And he has the Big Win, which was also an easy win.
In looking at the dynamics of the race, UNFORGETTABLE MAX could play a key roll. If he runs fast early, as he did at Belmont on July 4 against Ghostzapper, then it will be a little more difficult for both Strong Hope and Midas Eyes, thus making an exacta of A Huevo and Clock Stopper a distinct possibility. I sure wish that Strong Hope were a vulnerable favorite, for in such cases, my lines naturally function more effectively. His last two were beaten favorite tries, but his Carter Handicap was exceptional. He's legit.
GARY STEVENS WATCH
In the C&X you will receive any day now, I mentioned how we should track Gary Stevens now that he's back in the good old USA. In the early weeks of being home, I project that Mr. Stevens will be like a batter who has just discarded the heavy on-deck bat for the lighter variety. This is easier stuff for him than Euro racing. If he does soar, maybe it will be in Saturday's Palomar Breeders' Cup Handicap, aboard FUN HOUSE, a horse he won with before, with her first stakes win. In that same race, longshot NOTTING HILL shortens up for Jenine Sahadi, to a mile and a sixteenth, after having led for a mile and an eighth in the Grade 1 John Mabee Handicap before being caught by the classy Musical Chimes.
Check back Sunday eve for the Pennsylvania Derby analysis, and don't forget about the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, first Sunday in October, since you will receive no other notice of that posting.
Finally, win or lose today, hope you all consider renewing your C&X subscription. There will be more Chisholms at 9-1 but it may not be on this weekend.