Mark Cramer
C & X Report

PACIFIC CLASSIC
This field is full of deep closers, the best of which looks like the
Mitchell claimed and gelded horse, Sun Boat. There is only one
legitimate front runner of any class value and that is A.P. Xcellent.
If this were a normal track, or if Del Mar 2-turn events of late had
not been so unflattering for front runners, I'd have taken a chance on
A.P. Xcellent.
I'd sure like to beat the obvious favorite, Lava Man, but he's in a
perfect lone-presser position.
Whatever outlandish longshot we try to use in the win spot, we'd
better also play that longshot under Lava Man in the exacta-as-place
bet.
There are two horses in here that definitely get the jump over the
late closers, from a mid-pack position that is not prejudiced by the
track bias. They are Awesome Gem and Big Booster (the other Mitchell
horse).
The reasons to like Awesome Gem are less substantial than the
arguments for Big Booster. In essence, Awesome Gem could be a
hot-trainer play, a horse that could be approaching a peak
performance, with breeding that says he can handle a mile and a
quarter. But aside from the Craig Dollase factor, it's thin reasoning.
Without belaboring this horse by horse, and accepting that a 3yo like
Tiago could continue to improve, I'm left with BIG BOOSTER. What is
there to like?
His very best race is at today's distance.
He has enough tactical speed to get the jump over the deep closers.
He has the exact same layoff time that led to his June 21 Gulfstream
win, mildly a pattern match.
He is definitely an overachiever.
And, before you penalize him for his claiming past, he is a very
different horse since being gelded.
Mitchell is not new at taking ex-claimers into stakes wins.
Beating the perfectly spotted LAVA MAN will not be easy, but I have
decided to make BIG BOOSTER my key horse. His mate Sun Boat may not be
far behind.
Win or lose, I can safely say that since the Triple Crown and last
week's Beverly D, I have been doing better than the stock market.
mark

ALABAMA
I chose this race because my line came up with the winning bet last
week with the femmes in the Beverly D, I picked the filly winner of
the Belmont Stakes, and had another filly longshot in an earlier post.
So stick with the madmoiselles.
There are 7 horses here and all 7 have a reasonable chance to win. In
theory that would make each one 6-1. But some probably have a slightly
better chance than others, including the favorite Octave, whose odds
will be too low for a worthy investment.
MOON CATCHER broke the Del 1 1/16 record against an 11 variant, was a
troubled 4th vs. Panty Raid  and is a new commodity since adding
blinkers. From the rail faces a potential pace dilemma: go for lead or
get boxed in.
PANTY RAID. 3 straight wins, versatile (won on all three surfaces),
and 1 for 1 SAR in debut.
TOUGH TIZ'S SIS. Only bad race when in tight quarters in the CD mud,
and the hot Baffert says she's training much better now than then.
OCTAVE. Never worse than second. Faced the best fillies. But perhaps
never against such a deep field as this one.
FOLK. Hot Godolphin stable, a likely improver, but loses clear pace edge here.
LEAR'S PRINCESS. Lost for the first time in her fourth career race,
when only a half length behind the experienced Octave. That was also
her first race on regular dirt. This one is the most likely of them
all to improve, for McLaughlin.
LADY JOANNE has worked extremely well, also lost to Octave by ½ and 5
for 8 lifetime for Nafzger.
My line.
Lear's Princess, 7-2, need 5-1.
Octave, 4-1, need 6-1.
Lady Joanne, 4-1, need 6-1.
Panty Raid, 4-1, need 6-1.
I've given 82 percent to my best contenders, and 18% collectively for
the other three.
Put both Lear's Princess and Lady Joanne a half length behind Octave
and ask this question: which of the two "needed" that race and is more
likely to improve? That's why I have given a very slight edge to
Lear's Princess.
Other news. I'll be back with a posting for the Pacific Classic. By
the way, there's an interesting handicapping lesson to be learned from
the Iselin at Monmouth. In the Whitney at Saratoga, the red hot Papi
Chullo was too overmatched, and essentially is dropping to a more
proper level. But sometimes, horses become discouraged when asked to
run their eyeballs out against superior competition when they are at
their peak. Then they drop and lose their competitive instinct. It
will be interesting to see whether Papi Chullo (trainer claims he did
not take to the track at SAR) will recover his electric form or fizz
out.
One more reminder. The research in the current issue of C&X is begging
for more samples. We may be just one filter away from a worthy
automatic bet. If you are in a studious mode, then check it out. No
investment recommended until we have more samples, but it can already
serve as a worthy handicapping factor if used in combination with
other factors.
Stay tuned for the Pacific Classic. With a race laden with deep
closers on a surface that has not been conducive to horses stealing
races on the front, Lava Man, with his pressing style, seems ideally
spotted to reconfirm his SoCal domination at low odds. Let's look
deeper for a price, without forcing it. Stay tuned analysis.