Mark Cramer
C & X Report

here are a few thoughts.
In the Classic, the filly is not good enough. The hot trainer now is Aidan O'Brien, so I think he'll make up for the near misses of last year.
The theme of that article was that the Euro shippers show fewer wins than they should because they all had to lose races to Sea The Stars. If you exclude defeats at the hands of Sea The Stars, Rip Van Winkle looks like the classiest horse in the BC Classic. He only lost to Sea The Stars by a length, at the Classic distance, and 4 1/2 better than the rest. O'Brien finished second in last year's Classic with a horse that was less than this one. I am also looking long at Einstein.
The other half of the formula in the HP Mag article is that some of the other best Euros won every race other than loss(es) to Aga Khan horses. One of those is Gosden's Pounced, in the Juvenile Turf. After having won his Maiden by 3, he shipped to Longchamp for the Grade I Prix Lagardère. He finished second to an Aga Khan horse (AK had 8 stakes winners that weekend). More important, he showed early foot in the 7f race, and Euro E horses are good bets to adapt to USA racing.
No value on Goldlikova in the Mile, perhaps, but she too lost her prep at the wrong 7f dist to two Aga Khan horses, still ahead of 11 other horses in a race where she was used and used and used early (see the race on Youtube by asking for "Prix de la Foret 2009). Goldlikova has finished worse than win or place three times in her career and all of those three were at distances other than the mile.
In the Dirt Mile we also have O'Brien's Mastercraftsman, who also lost by a length to Sea The Stars and it wasn't even at his best distance, but it was a the best distance for Sea The Stars. Mastercraftsman has had a winning prep on a polytrack surface.
The vulnerable favorite for O'Brien is Lillie Langtry, not mentioned in the HP article. She's in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and thoroughly outclasses this field, but she's a dillydallier at the start. I'm looking at Junia Tepzia, who might stay beneath the radar since Americans don't know how good the German trainer Peter Schiergen is. She had E speed in last, lost the lead and came on again in that Italian race. I plan to look up the horses that were in that field to see if she beat anyone good.
I would throw out the Euros in any sprint race.
In the Turf, it's interesting with Presious Passion trying to steal it. Conduit comes from way back, so you see this is interesting. Between them are Dar Re Mi and Spanish Moon. In the Arc, Dar Re Mi was the only horse in the top four to stick around at the end. Better-than-looked race. Spanish Moon raced faster at same distance/track/date than Dar Re Mi on 13 Sepand is fresher than than the other two coming from the Arc. At the moment, Spanish Moon might be the overlay in this race. It was a poor field that Conduit defeated in the King George (two stable mates and 3 of O'Brien's second team). If you're just picking a winner and not playing the overlay, you should tell me what will happen to the overall pace with Presious Passion in the field.
That's where I'm at so far.
Mark

BC 2009: Friday's card
I plan do go lightly on Friday, since my insights are thin.
MARATHON
Looked long at Cloudy's Knight but he's gotten lots of ink and seems to be the wise-guy choice.
Father Time broke his maiden on synth and could be there if Mastery falters.
The heavy fave of last year's edition was a dud, and this year's favorite, Mastery, looks like the real thing. His only Polytrack race was a 4th, only a half back in a 14-horse field. There is nothing not to like about this favorite except the odds.
Man Of Iron is a polytrack specialist and has won his last two with Murtagh.
The winner of last year's edition is coming in dull, compared to 2008 when he arrived following two wins.
The only "discovery" I have here is that Nite Light, at 4-1 ML, was once defeated by Eldaafer, who is 30-1 on the ML.
ELDAAFER, with an inexplicable dud in his last race, is the exotic inclusion here for two and a half reasons:
(1) Overachiever: has won at odds of 17-1, 7-1 and 10-1;
(2) Trainer: Diane Alvarado is still unhyped and therefore has flat-bet profits in the three specialist categories (but she's only raced a horse once on the synth)
(3') Work: Del 48.1b 3/28 while 4f Del work before last disaster was 50.2b
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
Lillie Langtry has, as the DRF scribes have written, more earnings than the rest of the field combined. However, her race from the rear style does not bode well, especially given her expected low odds. (She should still end up in the money.)
Thus, it would be worth a stab with JUNIA TEPZIA for the unheralded but extremely adept German trainer, Peter Schiergen. Though post 11 is no bargain, she has
(1) the freshened-thanks-to-suspension Kieran Fallon, poised for inspired rides;
(2) the preferred early Euro style that translates well to USA
(3) made two moves last, leading, then losing the lead, then regaining it.
F&M SPRINT
This looks like a co-fave race. The strategy calls for playing the higher odds of the two, which will probably be INFORMED DECISION over VENTURA.
EVITA ARGENTINA has defeated the boys this track/surface/distance and has hot local trainer plus 20-1 odds. Maybe she'll help boost the tri price.
JUVENILE FILLIES
Pass for me.
F&M TURF
MIDDAY somewhere the tri in a contentious field.
LADIES CLASSIC
If Midday wins, it increases value of RAINBOW VIEW in this race. RV once finished close to the tail of Goldlikova. RV was a better filly in Europe than Proviso, and Proviso shipped here to win the Gr1 Spinster. Meanwhile, fave Music Note was not embarrassed in this race last year when racing wide. Meanwhile, the speed horse may inherit a relatively easy lead.
Summary: if I knew in advance that I would get bailed out by the Fed, I would take a stronger stand here.
If Madonna were riding Evita Argentina I'd feel more confident about that one's chances to make the tri.
If Eldaafer gets beat, I might get hired as his lawyer. I am the only one in turfdom to say a good word about him.
Junia Tepsia is the Globalization play: German trainer, Italian races, a rider named Kieran, and owners from the USA.
Post 2: PS
For what it is worth, Junia Tepzia's last race was a full two seconds faster than 3yo colts same day same distance same track.
She's now supplemented. Go Fallon.
mc