Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Breeders' Cup
Report 3. Thursday 25 Oct (second report of the day)
The rain situation dulls the thrill of the past performances. I've
never done well picking horses based on the weather. Lawyer Ron make
get an extra edge if, or rather, when the track is wet. ANY GIVEN
SATURDAY has no wet track record but is bred to love the mud, so I
won't budge on my preference for AGS. CURLIN should also move up in
the slop.
LEAR'S PRINCESS is another horse of value with no record on off
tracks. She has won on three surfaces: dirt, turf, and polytrack, so I
must conclude that she's indifferent about the surface, and not back
off from her.
THE MILE
Today I spoke with an insider to Euro racing and asked him about the
paucity of Euro starters, especially the French ones. He said he'd
heard conversations that stables were not traveling because of the
tight turns at Monmouth and more friendly tracks in Japan and Hong
Kong with big purses. With the exception of Dylan Thomas, the second
team of Euro horses is here. They may be helped, though, by what looks
to be a yielding or soft surface.
Often in the Mile, American horses have outshone their Euro rivals.
The race is wide open. Imagine After Market losing to Trippi's Storm.
If we can't depend on After Market, then who can we depend on?
I'll just mention a few good angles on several of the many contenders.
KIP DEVILLE (6-1 ML). You cannot fault 6 wins in 9 starts at the
distance. Dutrow can win a BC race. And above all, look at the odds
that this horse wins at, going from present to past: 9/2 (13Apr), 9-1
(3Mar), 7-1 (26Dec06), 9/2 (15Oct06), all dirt mile races! He then
tailed off in May and June, but has had two meaningful preps following
his layoff.
JEREMY (5-1 ML). This horse switches to the rider of his last victory,
Dettori. His trainer is no stranger to BC wins, but I can recall a
couple of Stoute's BC winners that were dominant horses in Europe.
Jeremy has not been dominant. But how much does the rider change mean
on this horse. Find out by typing in "Queen Anne Stakes Ascot 2007
youtube" and the "Sandown Mile 2007 youtube". In the Queen Anne,
Jeremy took the lead from front runner Ramonti, and seemed to draw
off. But then he drifted way wide, and got caught by the original
front runner. He was defeated by Dettori. In the Sandown, he had
Dettori aboard, captured the lead, raced straight ahead, and put away
oncomers.
These are the two horses that seem most interesting, given their odds.
Nothing wrong with the two faves.
I have decided to pass Friday's BC Dirt Mile. Too many uncertainties
with the possibility of a low priced favorite, in Discreet Cat. I was
looking long and hard at Lewis Michael, but his last four wins have
come at 9/10, 1/5, 2-1 and 1/5. You've seen my comments on the other
two Friday races.
The BC Juvenile Turf is the type of race where, after it's over, you
might say, "Oh, I could have had that horse. He figured!" Well, most
of the horses in this field figure in one way or another. I've
decided, against my usual customs, and only because this is called the
Breeders' Cup, to make an action bet on CHEROKEE TRIANGLE. The horse
improved with an equipment change, but he was 2/5 when he won by 10.
I'm just looking at these trainer stats and thinking that Michael
Maker can be bet blindly. We should all stop handicapping and just
play his horses.
Oh, and one last word. Remember the "Informed Minority" method. On the
DRF public handicapper grid, I close my eyes and make a win bet, in
advance, any horse picked only by one handicapper. If you've read C&X
over the years, or just this past year, you know the stats that favor
this method. The one year when it failed to yield a profit, it ended
up with a profit in the place and show holes.
Stay tuned for another report on Friday.
mc

Breeders' Cup
Report 2, Thursday 25 October (first of 2 reports today)
BC JUV TURF
No selection here, but love this race. I'll mention pros and cons, and
you decide which argument pleases you the most. Too many reasons for
too many horses, and all lightly raced so how do we know which one is
going to improve the most. The winner is the one who is on the way up.
ACHILL ISLAND. Respect trainer's record with 2yos, stable having great
year. Grade 2 competitiveness.
CHEROKEE TRIANGLE. Big win horse in wake-up race. Respect this
longshot trainer who is profitable in most categories.
DOMESTIC FUND. X-factor because will race on firmer ground for first
time. Trainer not successful in USA in recent years.
GIO PONTI. Why is this horse 8-1 in ML while fave, Prussian, with
similar record is 3-1. Cannot toss an undefeated horse.
NOWNOWNOW. Defeated by Gio Ponti but had worse trip. Could easily turn
the tables.
PREACHIN MAN. No turf, no turf pedigree, finally one horse we can toss.
PRUSSIAN. Won grade 3 on grass, also 2 for 2 on that surface for Mott.
Love Danzig breeding at mile.
STRIKE A DEAL. Must respect rider. May improve with stretchout.
THE LEOPARD; Another can't toss horse that has no blemish on the grass.
YEAR ROUND. Lost to both Gio Ponti/Nownownow and Prussian, without
really threatening.
CANNONBALL. 50-1 on ML but must respect owner, trainer is profitable
in various categories, pedigree with Storm Cat and Skywalker says that
he can stretch, and made huge improve when switching to grass.
Inflated odds because he's NY statebred. "In-off-the-alsos" angle.
So as you can see, a good lawyer can make arguments for all these
horses. If you're Eurocentric, then you can prefer the Euros who've
come from stakes, but then you might sense that the Monmouth
configuration might favor the locals, since the Euros are mostly not
used to the turns.

DISTAFF
Here's one of those races where these horses are capable of beating
each other. Who would have imagined that Octave would be 10-1 on the
ML!
Histericalady has a Big Win over the track and the trainer's hungry
for his first BC win. Ginger Punch is 6 for 9 with Bejarano but just
got beat by two of these. Indian Vale is 1 for 1 at Mth and 6 for 7 at
the distance, but just got beat by Unbridled Belle. Is Unbridled Belle
the now horse or the in-and-outer who does not always peak? Her last
race beats these easily. Then there's Lady Joanne ALWAYS FIRES but
she's capable of losing to a horse like Octave. Octave looks not like
the now horse and more like a place horse: four places in five tries
with Gomez. And Lear's Princess, always peaks and almost always wins,
and has defeated none other than Rags to Riches.
I was wimpy about the Juvenile Turf, so I'll take a stand here. At 6-1
in the ML, I feel that LEAR'S PRINCESS is the most likely to improve.
Her two losses were at 1 ¼. Now she gets the preferred 1 1/8. Her
trainer is profitable in every category (21% wins in graded stakes,
for a 36 cent profit on the dollar. Simply stated, Lear's Princess is
the most lightly-raced among these, and therefore has the most margin
for improvement.
Lear's Princess looks like an exotic key and a straight bet as well,
in a race where five other belle femmes are capable of outshining her
by a neck.