Mark Cramer
C & X Report

STAKES WEEKEND
The big race of the weekend is the Arc de Triomphe, Sunday, and I will have a full report of that one tomorrow. The field is deeply contentious, even though the British books have the undefeated Sea the Stars as odds on favorite. Legit fave, yes, but I can't take those low odds when there are other underfeated horses in the field, another one that finished second in the last two Arcs, a Fabre horse coming from the prep that has historically produced the most Arc winners (the Prix Niel) and among many others, Vision d'Etat, winner of the French Derby as a 3yo when he was high strung, and now a cool customer who knows this course, is 8-for-11 lifetime, and is listed at 12-1 by the British books.
More on the Arc tomorrow.
THE FLOWER BOWL INTERNATIONAL
Checking over the Belmont pick4, it looks like at least two favorites will be there, in the big turf race for males and the big dirt race, and may be singled on many tickets. The Flower Bowl International is the most contentious of these races, and judging from the morning line, we may get an overlay.
The Cristophe Clément entry is listed as the 5-2 favorite, but both of those gals have class questions. If Clement wins, it will be solely on his trainer stats.
The second ML fave, at 3-1, is Pure Clan, based on her huge win percentage on the turf and her good performance on this particular turf course, where she can handle soft going.
However, Dynaforce, winner of last year's edition of this same race and a proven soft-surface winner, seems to be the now horse and defeated Pure Clan at Arlington. Dynaforce is 7-2 in the ML. The pace-tracking style also favors this one.
The 4-1 Moneycantbuymelove has not faced tough foes in Europe for a trainer who has few credentials with shippers.
Lemington was in low level Euro races and then cheaper fields in the USA.
Criticism's trainer is 22% overall but 15% on the grass.
Pure Clan's trainer is 8% in races following a layoff.
For all these reasons, I would make DYNAFORCE my most-likely winner, and given the contention in this race, her odds figure to be fair. The forecast of showers is in her favor as well.
Stay tuned for my Arc report.
MC
ps. Check out the first 4 chapters of our marathon bicycle-racetrack trip, our "tour de France" at:
www.altiplanopublications.com
Pics in Day 4 are stunning, as is the Day 3 coverage of Chantilly.