Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Here is my final analysis on this thought provoking Arc de Triomphe.
At least seven of the 12 horses have a chance of winning without
raising our eyebrows. My hierarchy of preference begins with the most
preferred horses and works down.
ZAMBEZI SUN. Has the most reason for improving. Lightly raced, they
did not take out the whip in the Prix Niel so he finished slightly
behind Sagara, a horse he usually defeats. Trainer Pascal Bary informs
us that this horse was not at his peak during that race and is much
better now. He's won two races by 5-length margins in his short
3-for-5 career. The Prix Niel towers over all other prep races in
producing Arc winners. In the past 20 years there have been 109 3yo
males in the Arc and 12.84% of them have won. No other age-sex stat
comes anywhere near. Bary is one of the top 10 trainers in the world.
This horse is my key. Zambezi Sun is an informed minority pick, as
only one Paris-Turf handicapper among 23 picks him on top, and he does
so making him his best bet.
SOLDIER OF FORTUNE. Unfortunately, he's one of a four-horse entry that
includes Dylan Thomas, so if he's coupled in the American pools, you
lose a lot of value. On the other hand, Dylan T is a very legit
contender, so there's leverage in this entry. The soldier also comes
from the Prix Niel and is a 3yo. He won the Prix Niel with a bias in
his favor but his fractions were quite fast compared to the fractions
of the other two Arc preps same day/same distance. The Irish Derby was
a relatively weak field but Soldier of Fortune won it by 9 lengths. As
a comparable, Eagle Mountain finished 9 lengths behind Soldier of
Fortune in the Irish Derby and 5 lengths behind Authorized (the Arc
favorite) in the Epsom Derby. Yes, Soldier of Fortune finished way
back in the Epsom but that performance looks to me like an anomaly.
Furthermore, both of these top two picks are coming off a race at
Longchamp. This factor is potent, having produced 13 of the last 20
Arc winners. If you look according to impact value,  8.84% of all
horses coming from Longchamp have won the Arc, while the next bet
track stat is 6.67%. British horses that have not won in France
decrease their chances of winning the Arc, even if they are superior
horses. This is why I have chosen to demote two legit contenders, the
favored Authorized and Dylan Thomas.
SADDEX. This 4yo horse is 3 for 3 at today's distance this year, twice
in his home racing venue of Germany. More important, the third win
came when he shipped into Chantilly in a grade II at 9-1. His rider,
Mundry, has won 5 of 15 this year with shippers into France: an
unusually high stat for shipping riders.
Those are my top three. From here on there's no particular hierarchy.
AUTHORIZED is a 3yo (positive stat) and the favorite (faves have a 40%
win rate in the Arc. But all his races were in England, and many Epsom
winners have failed in the Arc. This horse would look great at 6-1 but
as a big fave he's an overpriced buy.
DYLAN THOMAS is 5 for 5 with Fallon aboard. He defeated Youzain by 4
lengths but Mandesha defeated Youmzain by 3 1/2 and Mandesha has had
races at Longchamp.
MANDESHA has been pointed to this race by the Aga Khan and even if
she's looked like a hanger in her last three preps, this stable,
conscious of pedigree value, knows how to get a horse (in this case a
filly) to peak for a big event. There have been 32 older females
running in the last 20 Arcs, with one winner and three in the money.
Pride nearly won last year's Arc and came from the same race as
Mandesha does this year, with the same come-from-behind style against
a slow pace.
GETAWAY is Fabre's supplement after his other horses defected for
various reasons. There was no original intention of running this
stayer at the "shorter" distance of a mile and a half (Getaway is a
specialist in 2 1/2 mile marathons, winning 5 of 8 career races and in
the money in the other three.) There is no proof that Getaway cannot
shorten up. But in spite of his near perfection, he has been a closer
at those long distances and will have to contend with a faster pace.
No surpirse if he pulls an upset.
A good lawyer could make arguments for two other horses but we'll stop here.
In summary, my top three, with value taken into consideration, are:
ZAMBEZI SUN
SOLDIER OF FORTUNE
SADDEX
None of the trainers of these top three have ever won the Arc. The
logics and counter-logics in this race are profuse. No other vocation
can offer such a challenging puzzle.