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Mark Cramer's C & X Report for the HandicappingEdge.Com.

Thursday, May 03, 2007

OAKS
You can't fault RAGS TO RICHES as the legit fave with the big win. Has
mud pedigree, just in case. Another big win horse is HIGH HEELS. We've
got a lesser known supertrainer (27% wins), and the trainer spaces his
races in beautiful symmetry. A duel up front could help him, and so
might the possible rains. MISTICAL PLAN has the angle of the shift
from polytrack to dirt. Can handle CD. Problem is a possible pace
duel, but at least this horse has the speed to overcome the negative
post. DREAMING OF ANNA has the turf to dirt angle that becomes a
pattern match but will not have the bias that favored her in the Juv
Fillies.
DERBY
This year, the winner will break some statistic. Curlin would have to
break the stat against horses with only 3 career races and no 2yo
training. My feeling is that the Arkansas Derby field was nothing
compared to what Curlin must face here. This could be the best
potential horse in the field, but for me, his Derby is a prep for the
Preakness. If he were 8-1, I'd be interested. But he's the fave. Try
to beat.
STREET SENSE seems like the horse to beat. The stat he needs to break
is the one where no BC Juvy winner has EVER won a Kentucky Derby. It's
a problem with modern training regimens. But Nafzger has done an
exceptional job with Street Sense and correctly noted that he did not
have to win the Blue Grass.
In that weird Blue Grass, watch the reruns of Great Hunter, early
presser, gets passed, and comes on again only to be forced to take up.
GREAT HUNTER has the 20 post in the Derby. No bargain. HARD SPUN won
the Lanes End from the 10 hole and earned his fastest time when
stretching out, a good sign. CIRCULAR QUAY has no real blemish except
for the lack of racing this year. Looked good in his win. DOMINICAN
looks like an improver but I'm gonna take a stand against. Seems to
prefer polytrack and has been off the board at Churchill.
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY was wide on both turns in the Wood, but watching
the race (it was a small field), the winner, NO BIZ LIKE SHOW BIZ
looked game and also looked like he could turn back challenges and
race in tight quarters. Can't toss.
The X horse for me is ZANJERO. This horse's last rider defected but
the new rider is 2 for 2 on this horse, at 8-1 and 7-2. He's won at CD
before. They say that the rail was dead on Blue Grass day. If that is
the case, then Zanjero gets a slight excuse for having grabbed and
then lost the lead. Can be an exotic inclusion.
To sum up:
at the moment, I like ZANJERO as an exotic inclusion,
and I feel that STREET SENSE is a most likely winner, because of
Churchill Downs is kind to him, and, not known to many, his Dam had 5
races at CD, winning three and finishing second in two. The rest of
the Dam's pps were unspectacular. It seems to me that a BC Juvy winner
should have won the Derby a long time ago and the negative stat has
been waiting to be broken by a clever training strategy.
Another post tomorrow.
Posted by: Mark / 6:33 AM

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