Mark Cramer
C & X Report

This is an amazing game. This morning's paper carried an interview of
Demercastel, trainer of Spirit One. He came all the way across the
ocean and great plains to Chicago, in search of a typical fast-paced
American race for his horse, Spirit One. He was tired of Spirit One
having to bear the brunt of the effort in front, and was happy that
he'd have Sudan in front of him. Then Sudan scratched. Now he's still
hoping that one or two horses get out there faster than his, so that
Spirit One can press. He may not get his wish. Reading between the
lines, his instructions to the rider may be to tuck in behind
Archipenko. These are the amazing and usually unpredicatable nuances
of horse racing. He's also praying for rain: the softer the better.
Regarding Cicerole, an interesting sidelight is that he's racing
against a former horse of the same trainer: Mauralakana was a Rouget
horse.
These two races are no less complex than Breeders' Cup races, and only
after the fact will they suddenly seem simple. Win or lose, this is an
incredibly exciting game, and I cannot figure how most of the world
does not appreciate it.
Mark

ARLINGTON
Report 2
If you are playing pick 3s or pick 4s, it's good to know that the
polytrack has been fair. Speed has won 27%, pressers 20.2%, stalkers
27.8% and closers 25%. The insider has produced nearly 60% of winners
while the outside a tad more than 40%;
The program handicappers in Chicago are high quality. Ron Uchman gets
31% winners and nearly breaks even with a flat-bet return of 1.95. Joe
Kristufek has a lower hit rate, with 27.4% but gets a profit, with a
2.10 roi. This shows once more that win percentage is not as important
as average mutuel.
Arlington Million
Friday night the turf course was labeled "yielding", which would be to
the advantage of Spirit One. In spite of all the hype on the other two
Euro horses, I am still going to key Spirit One, knowing that he can
be in a pace-control situation and still allow another horse to pass.
So I am visualizing first, second or third.
The connections of Archipenko are aware of the pace change with the
defection of Sudan and have declared that their horse is capable of
going to the lead, even if he usually doesn't do so. Similarly, Stream
Cat, a close fourth in last year's Million, can press, and his
comeback race, this course, after a l-o-n-g layoff saw him winning for
fun. He could be an overlay in the win hole. There is no denying that
with his 17 Gr I wins this year, the Aidan O'Brien stable is red hot,
and Mount Nelson looked like a rapidly improving horse in his Gr I win
at Sandown. Finally, Einstein's last race was a better-than-looked, as
he had to stop and start again. This is a good field, the favorite is
legit, and based on the potential odds, I am still keying Spirit One.
Mendizabal is a great rider, and I hope his inexperience with American
pace can be compensated for by the fact that his trainer knows the
instructions.
Beverly D
I still feel stymied by this one. Precious Kitten, the only GrI horse
in the field needs to prove she can handle an extra sixteenth of a
mile. The horse she defeated in the Gamely came back to win a GrII so
that win deserves the hype. Frankel has won this race twice.
Mauralakana's trainer, Clement, has also won this race twice,
including last year's edition with a longshot I played. Maurakalana
has the distance credentials that could make for an exciting finish
with Precious Kitten. We know that Dreaming of Anna is 11 8-3-0 on the
grass for a near perfect record but has not raced at this level nor
contended with such a menacing pace threat in Rosinka. We also know
that Dreaming of Anna has a 40% trainer. I've looked into Rosinka and
you can all see that there's a pattern match here: same preps that led
to her defeat of Maurakalana and her close second to champion
Lahudood. However, she looked sharper last year than this. Last year
she defeated the eventual Arlington Million winner at Delaware as well
as Palmilla by nearly 3 lengths. This year she lost to Palmilla by
more than 3, for a 6-length differential. But she really needed those
two races, and her trainer tells us not to worry. When Rosinka
defeated Mauralakana, she did so as a presser, and if she presses
behind Anna, the pattern match could become reality. However, not only
is her form a tad below from last year but Mauralakana was not nearly
as sharp then as she is now.
Which means that my analysis really doesn't differ a whole lot from
the way the public will be playing these horses. Communique is no
slouch either, and has won his prep, this track this distance, with a
local rider who knows this course!!!
What a deep field! Given the opposition, it would be a stretch to
consider the long-winded Cicerole a top contender, and the filly that
beat her did not do well when moved up to Gr I. However, the extra
distance may be what Cicerole needs. The filly looks less like a
jaguar and more like an imposing tractor in the stretch. The fact that
she has defeated the male Athanor twice (Athanor finished ahead of
Mount Nelson) suggests at least that I can make a small investment on
Cicerole just for fun. She has 10 turf races with 9 ITM. Only
off-the-board was after a 6-month layoff. The filly she beat by 5,
Toque de Queda, is also in this race, And Toque's last four races are
against the boys. Last time she faced the girls, she was defeated by
Cicerole. Toque finished behind the same horse, Spirito del Vento,
that finished ahead of Mount Nelson. Toque also lost to Athanor and
finished a head in front of Passager, a colt that was trounced by
Cicerole.
Most likely winner? Razor-thin edge to Mauralakana over Precious
Kitten, based on recency and distance. Exotic inclusion: Cicerole.
Communique, Rosinka and Anna all threats!