Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Well, it's about time to get horses outa my head for awhile, so I'm gonna sign off, do some cycling and then listen to some Garrison Keillor. Talk about stamina and dosage index: the Kentucky Derby takes a lot out of me. Please be patient for the next issue, since I usually crash after the Derby. It's now too late for any other reader comments to be posted.
FINAL COMMENTS
Here is my ranking, in order of the value-performance ratio. Conceivably, horses with superior pps might not make the list because their odds would be so much less than others with less notable pps. Since I could not eliminate more than half the field for the exotics, but since my top choice seems so much better than the rest, I will balance my bets accordingly.
1. Bellamy Road. Danger here is that Beyer likes the same horse. Beyer is a professional player, a most perceptive handicapper and a great writer. However, I don't do well when my Derby choice coincides with his. I hope this time there will be more synchronicity.
2. Greeley's Galaxy. When Beyer doesn't like a horse with a high Beyer, that's when it comes in. This one looks a lot like War Emblem (Illinois Derby).
3. Coin Silver. The rain gods might help, along with Valenzuela.
4. Wilko. Has surprised before. Just sense he's ready for a peak.
5. Afleet Alex. In early odds, he opened at 7-2, same as Bellamy. Otherwise I'd have put him higher in this ranking.
6. Don't Get Mad. This possible toteblaster, unfortunately looks like a one-rush sprinter. But he is the horse for course, and the rain gods might help him as well.
Hope you do well. Read my commentary in previous posts for objective info. Pick and choose what you think is most appropriate and integrate with your own thinking.
mc

A QUESTION MARK
THE BLUEGRASS
You've all seen how the Bluegrass came up as the slowest of all the preps, both in Beyer and DRF figs. Strange. I appraised the competititive level of all the preps, minus the Illinois Derby, with two criteria:
(1) TOTAL of 4 highest route Beyer figs (four horses in field, not including eventual winner), in order to see which preps had the fastest horses entered.
(2) How many horses in each field had at least one 90 route Beyer.
Blue Grass: 412 (all 7 entrants had broken 90 in at least one running line)
Wood: 396 (all entrants had broken 90)
Fla Derby: 390 (2 entrants had NOT broken 90)
SA Derby: (7 of 10 horses had NOT broken 90)
Ark Derby: (5 of 10 had NOT broken 90)
So going into these preps, the BlueGrass was the best and the Ark Derby was the worst.
And yet, after they'd run, the Blue Grass turned out to be the slowest.
In fact, it seemed in the BG that all the horses in the field regressed or failed to really improve, simultaneously. Sun King went from 91 to 88. High Limit went from 105 to 93. Closing Argument went from 98 to 88. Consolidator stunk. Only Bandini advanced, but only from 98 to 103. The BlueGrass also had the biggest slowdown of all the preps, and even Bandini, who won it slowed down horribly after having been in a perfect stalking condition behind the speed. The pressing High Limit put away the rest of the speed, so it makes more sense that he slowed down than it does for Bandini.
The question is: is it possible that in this, the apparently best of the prep fields, all the horses simultaneously regressed?
If this is so, then Sun King and Closing Argument, who failed to pass the tiring speed, would look particularly weak, Bandini would not look so great, and High Limit would have the best reason for the regression ... though he really needed to show to us that he could close ground since he's one of those speed horses whose previous races were suspect because of he'd had it all his own way.
Does anyone have any good reason to believe that there's some flaw in both Beyer fig and DRF speed rating? Could the timer have been off? If not, the horses here are all suspect.
BG final time 1:50. Wood final time 1:47.

AN INSIGHTFUL READER POST (from Jon) and MY TWO EXOTIC INCLUSIONS
Jon is a deep thinking handicapper. Often, when I cannot separate many horses, it is ripe for a situation in which a horse I've not kept in pops up in the exotics. Jon gives us the "closing argument" of a good lawyer on a horse I had excluded.
Hi Mark,
comment on CLOSING ARGUMENT as an exoticinclusion for the Derby.While it may be unlikely that he will win - this year's field looks muchlike the 1993 Derby field in that it appears to be awfully light in talent.So, it could be a year for a horse that has not shown tremendous talent tosurprise with modest gain over his previous best performance. Sea Hero wasunplaced in a relatively slow Blue Grass Stakes, coming in 4th to the horsethat would become the favorite in the Derby. In fact, the Blue Grass Stakeshas provided a number of Derby winners coming off of 3rd place finishes andworse.The main thing that has my attention directed toward Closing Argument is histrainer, Kiaran McLaughlin. McLaughlin is one of the few trainers in theDerby this year that is playing to one of his strengths. He is runningClosing Argument on a 2nd after a Layoff. McLaughlin has been terrific on1st and 2nd after Layoffs in route races. While this is his first runner atChurchill Downs to run 2nd after a layoff in a route, he hits at about a 35%rate at tracks where he typically runs (New York, Gulfstream and nowKeeneland). He has been particularly strong in the past year. Compare thisto Nick Zito's record of 1 win in 15 tries at Churchill Downs with 3rd afterLayoff entries in routes. Zito is running Bellamy Road 3rd after a Layoff.While the Derby may be another animal than other races, I still believe thattrainers do best when playing their strengths - and it is an advantage to bedoing that in the big race. (Note Frankel's record in the Breeders Cupraces, where he has seldom played his 1st after a layoff strong-card.)Other positives on Closing Argument: Won the Holy Bull, beating High Fly by2 lengths. Has never finished out of the money. Has won previously on 2ndafter a layoff (2nd lifetime race actually). His 3rd place finish in theBlue Grass came at long odds and he was roughed up at the start of thatrace. Two of his three wins were at long(ish) odds of 11/2 and 8/1. He hasfinished his races well - improving position, gained on the leader orstretched his margin of victory in 6 of his 7 races. While his performanceshave not been spectacular, as was Bellamy Road's Wood, his record doescompare with Sea Hero's - and this year looks like a year that Sea Herowould have liked.So, that is my closing argument. My key in the exotics: Kiaran McLaughlinand Closing Argument!
Jon Wright
MARK'S EXOTIC INCLUSIONS
Jon's arguments on Closing Argument are exquisite. He goes back into the mix.
My two inclusions, not necessarily in order, are:
GREELEY'S GALAXY (see argument in previous post)
and
COIN SILVER, see previous post, plus ...
compare patterns of CS with Noble Causeway.
NC 85 (mdn), 96 (Alwnw1), 100 (Fla Derby)
CS 85 (mdn), 94 (Alwnw1), 99 (Lexington)
In fact, on Fla Derby day, NC ran in 149.3 plus and CS ran in 150.1
but CS was one step EARLIER in his development. At that moment, CS's time would have placed him within 4 lengths of Fla Derby winner, and in fact, even though it looks like CS was backing up, his closing fraction was 2 ticks faster than that of Noble Causeway. Since then, Coin Silver has had a chance to further develop while NC has waited on the sidelines.
If you think NC has a chance as an exotic inclusion, which I do, then you have to think Coin Silver has an equal chance at higher odds. Interesting drama. Gary Stevens gets away from SoCal to escape the competition from Patrick Valenzuela and now he gets on NC to encounter Valenzuela on CS. The jockey factor does make a difference in a 20 horse field.
Jon's argument on Closing Argument is flawless. I sense that Coin Silver may have more of a chance for the type of huge improvement needed here. But I cannot knock Jon's logic.
Check back in case more info comes in to post. My exotic inclusions and I think Jon's too are based on chances to get ITM relative to generosity of odds. That's no knock against other horses we could not eliminate from ITM chance.
mark